To understand why the Philadelphia Phillies fired manager Joe Girardi on Friday, let's begin with a number: 233.
Take that number, multiply it by 1 million and think of it in terms of dollars, and you start to get an inkling of what is going on. That's the Phillies' 2022 payroll -- $233 million, fourth-highest in the majors, per Spotrac -- and it's well into luxury tax territory.
A payroll like that sets a clear standard of expectation for everyone in a baseball organization. That is: to win a championship. You don't spend that kind of money on a baseball roster for any other reason than that.
Now, let's consider two more numbers, both percentages: 1.3 and minus-14.1.
Those figures, respectively, represent the Phillies' current chances of making the playoffs and how much those chances have dropped over the past week, according to baseball-reference.com.
If you're a manager overseeing a ballclub attached to the numbers we've mentioned so far, you better watch your butt. Thus, Girardi is out, having now been let go three times during his managerial career even though he's won a World Series, been to six postseasons in 14 years and is 185 games over .500 during the regular season, ranking 30th all-time among managers.
"It has been a frustrating season for us up until this point, as we feel that our club has not played up to its capabilities," said the Phillies' president of baseball operations, Dave Dombrowski, via the team's news release announcing the move. "While all of us share the responsibility for the shortcomings, I felt that a change was needed and that a new voice in the clubhouse would give us the best chance to turn things around."
Dombrowski is the person who put together this mess, of course. Firing Girardi can be looked at as a desperation move, and in fact, that's kind of what it is. That doesn't mean it's not worth a try. If the intent is to shake up a moribund clubhouse, then maybe that's just what will happen. Still, to blame Girardi entirely for the Phillies' lackluster season would be unfair.
In short, this is a weirdly constructed roster despite the price tag, and that's on Dombrowski. The Phillies are the worst defensive team in the majors (29th in defensive runs saved and 30th in Statcast's outs above average) and that's an outcome that seemed preordained heading into the season.
Taking what was already a poor defensive team and adding a pair of splashy free agents who provide nearly all of their production with their bats -- Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos -- all but sealed that worst-defense-in-the-majors fate.
If Girardi could have flanked his iffy corner defenders around an elite up-the-middle defensive crew, then maybe it could work at least well enough to support the pitching staff. But the Phillies have had nothing resembling an everyday center fielder or an everyday shortstop on the roster all season.
All of this was made exponentially worse when defending NL MVP Bryce Harper injured his elbow on a throw in April and thus has had to be consigned to the DH slot ever since. As a result, the Phillies are one of five teams that have featured more or less an everyday DH (Harper) even though they have four or five players (Schwarber, Castellanos, Didi Gregorius, Rhys Hoskins, perhaps Alec Bohm) who might hold down that role on a different team.
The plan was to bash opponents into submission with a power-laden batting order. The plan was, suffice to say, ill-timed given the 2022 run environment. To a certain extent, this could not have been foreseen. Then again, it's never been a bad idea to field a balanced roster.
Still, the Phillies have outscored their opponents this season and yet are seven games under .500. The biggest reason for this is a 4-10 record in one-run games. They've lost 14 games in which they held a lead at some point, the fourth-highest total in baseball. Measures such as these are never wholly on the manager, but they are certainly not data points in his favor.
The best embodiment of Girardi's struggles is probably an early-May loss to the Mets in which Philadelphia blew a 7-1 lead it carried into the ninth inning. It sure seems the heat under his seat kept rising after that game.
For all the howls about the relief staff, the bullpen is more mediocre than terrible, ranking 15th in fWAR collectively thus far, which is in the range of expectations for the group. (FanGraphs has the Phillies' relievers 11th in rest-of-season fWAR projections.) Perhaps a master bullpen technician like Milwaukee Brewers manager Craig Counsell or Tampa Bay Rays skipper Kevin Cash could extract more, or maybe there's not more there to get.
The "new voice in the clubhouse" Dombrowski mentioned is interim manager Rob Thomson. As he was Girardi's bench coach, he's not exactly a new voice, but Dombrowski has limited options given this is happening midstream. Thomson is going to be tasked with figuring out that bullpen now, and while he's been in professional baseball since 1985, he's an utter unknown as a manager. When it comes to the bullpen, if he can't figure out how to ride relief ace Seranthony Dominguez for a couple of innings every time the Phillies get a lead, the later frames are probably going to remain a rollercoaster.
As for the defense, there's little Thomson can do there, either. The players are who they are and Harper's elbow injury looks like it's going to be a lingering issue, so there is Thomson's everyday DH -- which means Castellanos and Schwarber will continue to man the corner-outfield spots instead of rotating as designated hitters.
If things are to turn around for the Phillies and they make some kind of run at the sixth slot in the National League's playoff bracket -- a spot that is keeping hopes alive for a lot of mediocre teams this year -- it won't be because of any magical tactical moves made by their new skipper. It won't be because of better health (which would help, but pretty much every team in the majors can make that statement).
No, if the Phillies turn things around, it'll be because a team that has looked pretty lifeless for most of the season starts playing with a little bit of urgency. If that happens, Dombrowski's decision to scapegoat Girardi on Friday will be justified.
But if it doesn't happen, you can expect Phillies ownership to have some pointed questions for Dombrowski after the season. Here's one: We paid $233 million for that?