We're 20 days away from this year's Rule 4 draft, and virtually nothing is settled at this point, starting with the first overall pick. As always, this is based on my conversations with sources throughout the industry, not my personal rankings of players.
Houston Astros
Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
The Astros' decision is still apparently up in the air, but the general feeling is that they'll take the college arm over the higher-upside, higher-risk outfielder, Byron Buxton … or that they'll take the best player who'll cut a deal below the $7.2 million slot figure and transfer the money to later picks.
Minnesota Twins
Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County H.S. (Baxley, Ga.)
They were presumed to be on San Francisco right-hander Kyle Zimmer until the past few weeks, when Zimmer's velocity slipped and he missed a start with a hamstring injury. Appel seems to be the other option here, or perhaps prep right-hander Lucas Giolito now that teams are getting more and more comfortable with reports on his elbow injury, which caused him to miss most of the year.
Seattle Mariners
Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake H.S. (Studio City, Calif.)
They were supposedly on Florida catcher Mike Zunino, but now the word is they want pitching and are on Giolito, Max Fried (Giolito's high school teammate) and Oklahoma State southpaw Andrew Heaney. But I'm also hearing Puerto Rican prep shortstop Carlos Correa is a possibility. It's worth noting that their first-round pick last year, Danny Hultzen, stunned almost everyone, so if we think the Mariners are on someone, they probably are not.
Baltimore Orioles
Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU
Baltimore is looking for the best player available; that could be Gausman, who I currently have ranked as the top pitcher in the draft, or Correa or any of the players named above, although the Orioles are not really linked to Giolito.
Kansas City Royals
Mike Zunino, C, Florida
I've heard them on Gausman, and every college arm, and of course, they'd look at Buxton if he fell. They've also been camped out on hard-throwing prep right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. for his past few outings, when he has been peaking at just the right time.