The schedule is the schedule, simple and plain. On Tuesday night in midtown Manhattan, under the low-light glow at Madison Square Garden, No. 13 Michigan State will play No. 2 Kentucky. When they finish, the court will clear, layup lines will ensue and then No. 7 Kansas, the 12-times-running Big 12 champions, will tip off against the prohibitive preseason national title favorite, No. 1 Duke.
At best, Duke and Kentucky might run past each other in the tunnel leading to the floor. Or maybe Mike Krzyzewski and John Calipari, with their staffers and assistants and future NBA talents in tow, will shoulder by one another in the Garden's narrow concrete bowels. Maybe they won't see each other at all.
Forget all that. Forget the schedule. Forget the logistics. Forget, for a moment, that at the Champions Classic on Tuesday night Duke isn't playing Kentucky, and Kentucky isn't playing Duke.
Because on Tuesday night, Duke is absolutely playing Kentucky, and Kentucky is totally playing Duke.
This is the state of college basketball, and the state of these two programs. They compete not merely in actual games of basketball -- how trite -- but on a grand hegemonic scale, where wins and losses are scored across seasons and measured in national title odds and NBA lottery picks and rewarded with sheer overwhelming mindshare ... and, in turn, more future NBA lottery picks.
Duke and Kentucky are competing against each other Tuesday night because at this point they are always competing against each other -- in-season and in the offseason -- in a way no other programs can sustainably match.
This dynamic is nowhere more visible than in the rolls of new talent each program brings to campus each season. It has never been more glaring than right now.
Since 2007, when ESPN Recruiting Nation debuted its ESPN 100 rankings, just four incoming classes have boasted at least four top-20 players. Kentucky was the first, in 2011-12, when Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist led the Wildcats to a national title; they promptly went No. 1 and No. 2 in that summer's NBA draft. The second? Duke, in 2014-15, when Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow and Grayson Allen scored 60 of the Blue Devils' 68 points in a national title win over Wisconsin -- just two days after a Karl-Anthony Towns-led Kentucky team lost for the first time all season.
But, hey, what about those other two classes? Those also belong to Kentucky and Duke ... this season.
"We're in competition," Calipari told ESPN's Myron Medcalf in October. "We're competing. Not really for every kid. There are kids I think should go to Duke that should not come here. I'm fine with that. I mean there are other kids that they're the kind of kids that need to come here and do their thing. We get those kids."
In an incoming class many NBA scouts believe is the best in a decade, six of the nation's top 10 freshmen -- and half of its top 16 -- will play at just two schools.
So, how did we get here?
It started, of course, with Calipari's hiring at Kentucky in 2009. Of Calipari's many gifts -- his media savvy, his salesmanship, his insatiable coaching style -- his ability to see three moves ahead may be his strongest. He recognized, immediately, that sending John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins (his first 1-2 NBA draft punch) to the league and celebrating their departures as his ultimate goal was a way to ensure that prospects who might be NBA draft-bound would see Kentucky as their fastest route to the pros in the NBA's post-age-limit era. The strategy paid off immediately, over and over again; since Calipari moved to Lexington, Kentucky, the Wildcats have never ranked lower than No. 2 in ESPN's yearly recruiting class rankings.
Duke has always recruited well, of course; Krzyzewski isn't the only 1,000-game winner in college basketball history for nothing. But the Blue Devils' path to modern one-and-done recruiting dominance has come about more recently. Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler, key components in the Blue Devils' 2010 national title run, were elite prospects in their own right, but neither was a can't-miss NBA prospect.
Two factors seem to have led to Duke's rise. One, which has received an outsized share of attention, is the advantage, perceived or otherwise, that Coach K derives from his place atop USA Basketball. Whether it's access to the talented teenagers piping into youth teams, or the cachet accrued from coaching LeBron James and Kevin Durant in the Olympics, there's no doubt the association has helped him remain plugged-in in ways that aren't always the norm for those pushing 70 years old.
The other, less-discussed factor, is the hiring of former Duke star and Oklahoma coach Jeff Capel. Capel was fired after two losing seasons (and an improper benefits scandal) at Oklahoma in March of 2011. He joined Duke's staff that May. The Duke staff was already ahead of the game by then; Kyrie Irving led the 2010 class, and Austin Rivers (and four other top-100 players) showed up in 2011. But Capel was in full stride by the time he got Jabari Parker to commit in 2013, and was just as instrumental in putting together Okafor, Jones and Winslow in that star-studded, title-winning 2014 class. Capel is now Duke's associate head coach.
For years, Kentucky's recruiting primacy went more or less unchallenged. But in the past three seasons, Duke's class ranked No. 1 twice -- and this season, when it landed two of the top three players, it might as well be 1B.
Even by this time last year -- a summer removed from his fifth national title, on the eve of an actual matchup with Kentucky -- we marveled at how Krzyzewski seemed to have replicated Calipari's one-and-done blueprint.
"We don't copy anybody," Krzyzewski said at the time. "If you try to be someone else, you'll be, at best, second best."
Calipari, for his part, has noticed the similarities. And as someone who once had to stump constantly to make the case for the theory of the self-sustaining recruiting cycle, and who openly bristled against crusty criticism of one-and-done "mercenaries," the sudden acceptance irks anew.
"It took Duke to do it for it to become OK," Calipari told ESPN in October. "And that's, everybody knows ... I'm not saying it to be nasty or mean. It is what it is. The minute that happened, they said, 'You know, Coach K adjusted to the times,' and it was great."
This barely disguised rivalry has occasionally dropped all pretense. Like, for example, the now-infamous fishing-rod-emoji-gate, when Duke's official Twitter account briefly subtweeted Calipari after his blog post in reference to a recruit's quote about the two schools' differing pitches. The details of this mouthful are not worth recounting again, except to say that the whole thing was really funny.
The larger point is this: Rarely have two programs that don't share a traditional geographic or conference-oriented rivalry been so intensely focused on each other -- and rarely have the stakes been so high.
Which is not to say the national title game is destined to come down to Duke and Kentucky. Of course it isn't. Duke's real-world opponent on Tuesday night, No. 3 Kansas, has its own remarkable freshman star (potential 2017 No. 1 draft pick Josh Jackson) joining Frank Mason III and Devonte' Graham, perhaps the nation's best (or at least most experienced) backcourt (and what could be a monstrous perimeter defense).
Villanova, lest we forget, just won the national title in historically mind-blowing fashion, and returns a huge chunk of its minutes and production -- including All-American candidate Josh Hart. North Carolina was a shot away, and returns most of its own core as well.
Virginia is one season removed from back-to-back ACC titles; Tony Bennett has built his own version of self-sustaining success, and is recruiting better than ever because of it. Wisconsin brought everybody back from a team that finished 13-4; Oregon and Arizona will be strong out west; Louisville will guard like crazy.
Most of all, college basketball will be college basketball. No matter how talented you are, there's no such thing as a guarantee. As Calipari once said, the best a college coach can hope for is to "get up to bat" -- to increase his late-tournament odds just by being there in the first place.
Duke and Kentucky have done just that, in a way that more or less assures that once every few years one, or both, will be favored to win the only title either really cares about. They've done so in similar, if not identical, ways, and have lifted themselves to an altogether different plane than their peers.
Kentucky and Duke don't play each other Tuesday night, but they don't need to. In this sweeping strategic clash, winning and losing is bigger than wins and losses, and competition need not be dictated by schedule. You don't even need to be on the same floor.