Chris Jans has done the near impossible since becoming head coach of the New Mexico State Aggies two seasons ago. He inherited a 28-win team and made it better. After duplicating the 28 wins and NCAA appearance of the 2016-17 club last season, Jans took things a step further with a program-record 30 wins. The Aggies have dominated the WAC, winning seven of the past eight tournament titles and nine in 14 years, but haven't won an NCAA tournament game since 1992. Can this deep and versatile team be the one that ends that skid?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Grand Canyon, at Utah Valley, vs. Grand Canyon
Worst losses: vs. Drake, at California Baptist
Regular-season conference finish: first, WAC
Polls and metrics: The Aggies were a team of which the metrics couldn't quite agree. The NCAA's new NET ranking places them at No. 41. New Mexico State is 57th in the Kenpom and 63rd in the BPI.
All-time tourney record: 10-26 (one Final Four)
Coach (tourney record): Chris Jans (0-1)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 16.)
Starting lineup
F C.J. Bobbitt (4.7 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
F Eli Chuha (10.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG)
G Clayton Henry (5.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
G Terrell Brown (11.3 PPG, 42.3 3PT%)
G A.J. Harris (9.6 PPG, 3.2 APG)
Key bench players
G Trevelin Queen (6.7 PPG, 2.7 RPG)
F Johnny McCants (6.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG)
F Ivan Aurrecoechea (9.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
Biggest strength: New Mexico State is deep and comes at you in waves. Jans has a roster of interchangeable parts that he says has a willingness to play together like he hasn't seen in 25 years of coaching. Thirteen different Aggies play at least 11 minutes per game and they have had nine different leading scorers this season. They have learned to play the hot hand to the tune of 19 straight wins to end the season.
Biggest weakness: New Mexico State can have a tendency to settle for jump shots. Over 46 percent of the Aggies' field goal attempts come from beyond the 3-point line, which is the 20th-highest ratio in the country -- yet they make a pretty ordinary 34.1 percent of those shots. In its two most recent losses to California Baptist and Drake, New Mexico State shot a combined 12-of-50 from beyond the arc.
Best player: Picking a singular player on a team constructed like New Mexico State is extremely difficult. That player is different nearly every night. Brown probably has the best qualifications, though. He is the only Aggie to average in double figures, and he shoots 43.1 percent from 3-point range. Brown, at just 6-foot-1 and 165 pounds, is also New Mexico State's primary driver, and gets to the line more than anyone on the team, where he shoots a team-best 78.0 percent.
X factor: The Aggies ranked 332nd in average height and somehow are eighth in the country in offensive rebound rate and fourth in defensive rebounding rate. Effort and sheer competitiveness have plenty to do with that oddity, but if it's not also merely a product of the WAC, New Mexico State has its own secret weapon.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: Whether it's spreading the wealth or finding that one hot guy, New Mexico State has multiple ways to succeed. In the first half of the WAC championship game against Grand Canyon, it was Aurrecoechea. In the second, Queen led the way. Both did it coming off the bench. Whichever Aggie is the flavor of the moment, New Mexico State wants to get the ball and go, and it has the horses to do it.
How you beat them: When Aurrecoechea is in the game, the Aggies have a legitimate low-post threat, but if they are forced to go to that route as a first option, they are in trouble. The more New Mexico State has to play in the traffic of half court, the lower their chances for success. The Aggies are rarely in those kinds of physical games. How they might react to one is an unknown.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 16.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 42nd (112.0)
Defensive efficiency, 92nd (99.8)
3-point percentage, 189th (34.1)
3-point percentage D, 104th (33.1)
Free throw rate, 127th (34.8)
Free throw rate D, 188th (33.1)
TO percentage, 124th (17.7)
TO percentage D, 120th (19.3)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: First weekend
Somehow Jans was able to take 10 newcomers and mold them into a cohesive unit that willingly shares the ball and scoring responsibility. That kind of chemistry is hard to come by and could certainly be worth a win. With 13 players in the rotation, the Aggies can outlast anyone.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
If New Mexico isn't able to get the game up-tempo and if the 3-pointers aren't falling, the Aggies could be a quick out. The unique nature of Jans' ability to substitute in a way that's reminiscent of hockey line changes should keep them in the game, but might not be enough to win it.