When we last laid eyes on the Maryland Terrapins, they were exiting the Big Ten tourney much sooner than expected, dropping their opening game to Nebraska. This unexpected loss might serve as a turning point for the young Terps, who were no doubt read the riot act by head coach Mark Turgeon between the Thursday afternoon loss and Selection Sunday. If the message penetrates, the Terrapins have the talent to wreak some bracket havoc. The Terrapins are young, with a six-pack of freshmen, but they are talented. And after last week's upset loss in the Big Ten tourney, they'll be motivated, too. Can the young Terps work some March magic or will they act their age and be quickly sent home?
ESPN+ has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Wisconsin, vs. Indiana, Ohio State (twice), vs. Purdue, at Iowa
Worst losses: Illinois, at Penn State
Regular-season conference finish: 5th, Big Ten
Polls and metrics: Name a metric or poll and the Terps score well in it - whether it's the BPI (27) or the Associated Press or coaches poll (21).
All-time tourney record: 41-26, one national title, two Final Fours
Coach (tourney record): Mark Turgeon (8-8)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 14.)
Starting lineup
C Bruno Fernando (14.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG)
F Jalen Smith (11.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG)
G Anthony Cowan Jr. (15.9 PPG, 4.3 APG)
G Darryl Morsell (7.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
G Eric Ayala (8.4 PPG, 2.2 APG)
Key bench players
G Aaron Wiggins (8.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
F Ricky Lindo Jr. (1.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
G Serrel Smith Jr. (3.8 PPG, 1.4 RPG)
Biggest strengths: College Park is home to two of the Big Ten's most gifted frontcourt players in Fernando, a 6-foot-10 Angolan with an NBA body and future, and Jalen Smith, a McDonald's All-American who has taken longer than expected to adjust to the college game but who is absolutely relentless on the offensive glass. If that weren't enough to keep opposing coaches up at night, guard Cowan is a driving demon who is tough to stay in front of.
Biggest weakness: This is an extremely young basketball team, so some youthful mistakes in the pressure cauldron of one-and-done March Madness are to be expected. Also, the Maryland bench is good, not great, so foul trouble to a foundational piece like Fernando or Cowan could prove disastrous.
Best player: Fernando might be the single-most talented player in the Big Ten. Really. Fernando earned first-team All-Big Ten honors as a sophomore after averaging a double-double, shooting 62.4 percent from the field, and swatting almost two shots per game. In short, Fernando is a major problem for foes.
X factor: When Jalen Smith, a Baltimore native, stayed home and signed with Maryland, unrealistic expectations were put upon the teen hoops prodigy. A high school center, Smith had to learn a new position (power forward) and adjust to playing next to an alpha male big man in Fernando. He also had to learn how to switch onto and stay with quick Big Ten guards in high ball screen sets. In typical college freshman fashion, Smith has both struggled and excelled at different points this season. But after running a 20-game Big Ten gauntlet, he could be ready to explode in the postseason.
SCOUTING REPORT
How they beat you: The Terrapins beat teams with an ultra-efficient offense and defense. Both units are proof that size, particularly NBA size, matters. On offense, Fernando is a low-post whiz with the size and strength to bully most college big men, and Jalen Smith is a handful to keep off the offensive glass because of his combination of height, skill, and desire. This duo normally owns the boards, resulting in extra chances for the Terps' offense and lots of one-and-done trips for opposing offenses.
How you beat them: Turn Cowan, the Terps' top scorer, exclusively into a jump shooter and the odds of upending Maryland increase greatly. If Cowan has an off scoring night, then Maryland is most likely toast.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 13.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 26th (113.8)
Defensive efficiency, 25th (93.8)
3-point percentage, 125th (35.3)
3-point percentage D, 58th (32.0)
Free throw rate, 192nd (32.9)
Free throw rate D, 27th (26.6)
TO percentage, 261st (19.8)
TO percentage D, 352nd (14.3)
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Elite Eight
Turgeon's squad has two future NBA frontcourt players (Fernando and Smith) and one of the ACC's best guards in Cowan. Smith's stock has been up and down this season, not totally unexpected for a freshman in the tough Big Ten. If Smith comes to play and if Ayala, Morsell, and Wiggins can score eight-to-12 points apiece, then the Terps will win two, maybe three games in this tournament.
Worst-case scenario: Round of 32 loss
Maryland has six -- count them, six -- freshmen on its roster. So this is a young team but one with talent. Still, no one in the Terps' eight-man rotation has ever won a postseason game (no postseason wins in 2017, no NIT or NCAA trip last year, lost first game in the Big Ten tourney to Nebraska on March 14). It says here that the postseason goose egg probably will go away as this team seems too gifted and too efficient to be upset in the first round.