The Xavier Musketeers began the season with 12 consecutive wins, yet stayed somewhat under the radar in the national conversation. That's fine with coach Chris Mack and his Musketeers. Their balanced scoring attack has them posting more than 80 points per game and their unique 1-3-1 zone defense provides a challenge for any opponent. They'll enter the tournament highly seeded, but do they have what it takes to make a deep run?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Michigan, USC, Dayton, Cincinnati, Butler, at Providence, at Butler, Villanova
Worst losses: Georgetown, at Creighton
Regular season conference finish: Second, Big East
Polls and metrics: The Musketeers peaked at No. 5 in the AP Poll earlier in the season and have returned to that spot. They've backed up this ranking by earning the No. 6 RPI in the nation.
All-time tourney record: 23-25 (25 appearances)
Coach's tourney record: Chris Mack (6-5, 5 appearances)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through March 6 games.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Jalen Reynolds (9.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG)
G Trevon Bluiett (15.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG)
G Remy Abell (6.3 PPG, 1.6 APG)
G Edmond Sumner (11 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.3 SPG)
G Myles Davis (11.3 PPG, 4.1 APG, 3.5 RPG)
Key Bench Players
G J.P. Macura (9.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG)
F James Farr (10.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG)
F Kaiser Gates (3.3 PPG, 2.7 RPG)
Biggest strength: Xavier relies on a balanced offensive attack. Night in and night out, the Musketeers are able to exploit whatever matchup advantage they can find on the court, with a host of players capable of doing so. Six Xavier players average more than 9.5 points per contest, including two bench players. Mack's team is full of players who are able to score along with a host of willing passers. Xavier assisted on more than 60 percent of its made field goals this season.
Biggest weakness: Xavier's defense has been effective this season, though it has been a patchwork effort. Starting four players under 6-foot-6 has made playing conventional defense a challenge. Instead, the Musketeers have relied on a blend of pressure and mixing man-to-man with a 1-3-1 zone. The latter has been effective, but only in spurts. The Musketeers aren't able to play zone for long stretches, with teams eventually finding open jump shots in the gaps. Xavier can defend, but whether it can bank on defensive stops late in close games against top competition remains to be seen.
Best player: Bluiett is the leading scorer, but Sumner is the straw that stirs the drink for Xavier. The scrawny freshman has come into his own this season, doing everything for the Musketeers. He's scoring in double figures and adding 3.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. When playing as a forward in Xavier's smaller lineups, Sumner is able to beat bigger players off the dribble, getting to the line and finding open teammates.
X factor: The efforts of Macura and Farr off the Xavier bench have been invaluable this season. Few teams can count on a combined 20 points and 10.5 rebounds per game from two non-starters. Macura's hot shooting and Farr's bruising style inside completely change the game when they are on the floor.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Xavier offense is a flurry of moving players and smart passing. Veteran point guard Myles Davis runs the show, working the Musketeers' inside-out attack. Davis and Sumner look to penetrate off the dribble, with Farr and Reynolds tough to stop around the basket. When the defense collapses, Bluiett and Macura are willing and able to knock down jump shots.
Defensive approach: Late this season, Mack has tried to mix in 1-3-1 in moderation, and it has been effective. Xavier plays the 1-3-1 a tad differently than most, with the long-armed Sumner or Macura at the top and a big man playing underneath. This unconventional setup has helped the Musketeers slow down opponents while still rebounding out of the zone.
How they beat you: Xavier can go nine deep as easily as any team in the country. The Musketeers attack the paint, with slashing guards and punishing big men who draw fouls. As foul trouble and fatigue set in, Xavier takes advantage. With a team full of excellent foul shooters, the Musketeers make a living at the charity stripe, leading the Big East in free throw rate.
How you beat them: Beating Xavier starts on the defensive end, specifically in the paint. Cutting off driving lanes from Davis, Blueitt, and Sumner closes off passing opportunities and slows the Musketeers offense. If opponents can keep the guards out of the painted area, and not allow Reynolds and Farr to dominate the glass, the Xavier offensive machine can start to stall.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through March 6 games.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 18th (116.0)
Defensive efficiency, 40th (96.1)
3-point percentage, 86th (36.4)
3-point percentage D, 37th (31.7)
Free throw rate, 26th (44.1)
Free throw rate D, 92nd (33.4)
TO percentage, 134th (17.6)
TO percentage D, 96th (19.3)
Good stat: 44.1 percent free throw rate
The Musketeers love to get to the foul line. They score nearly a quarter of their points on free throws, 30th most in America. The big bodies of Farr and Reynolds are part of that, but amazingly it's the 170-pound Sumner who is the biggest factor here. He draws 6.4 fouls per 40 minutes, second most in the Big East. He's surprisingly crafty when he drives the lane and is always looking to absorb contact on his way to the basket.
Bad stat: 32.9 percent of points allowed on 3-point baskets
In part due to their 1-3-1 defense, Xavier's opponents have been able to find 3-point baskets. Only 30 teams have allowed opponents to take more 3-point attempts than Xavier. The Musketeers have allowed an encouraging percentage from beyond the arc, but problems can arise when a team gets hot, like Villanova's 13-25 3-point performance in a beatdown of Xavier.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Xavier reaches the Final Four.
Xavier's weaknesses aren't glaring and won't cause the Musketeers to panic at any point in the tournament. They are led by a steady group of upperclassmen with tournament experience. In this season, where all of the talk has focused on parity, a team that is consistent and dependable like Xavier can ride it all the way to the Final Four.
Worst-case scenario: Xavier gets upset early.
Just as Xavier lacks any terrifying weaknesses, the Musketeers' strengths aren't as obvious as other highly ranked teams. Xavier's path to three or more tourney wins might be outweighed by the chances the Musketeers run into the wrong team on the wrong day early on. A heat wave from long range by a lower-seeded team could send Xavier home after only tasting the tournament.