Two months ago, the Wisconsin Badgers were reeling. A mid-January loss at Northwestern left them staggering at 9-9 overall and 1-4 in the Big Ten. A month earlier, longtime head coach Bo Ryan had abruptly retired, leaving the program in a state of uncertainty, and the transition to then-interim coach Greg Gard didn't seem to be going too smoothly. But Wisconsin's fortunes turned as suddenly as Ryan's reign had ended. Gard's Badgers won 11 of 12, knocked off four ranked teams and got back to playing Wisconsin basketball. But do they have enough firepower to reignite that run in March?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Michigan State, Indiana, at Maryland, at Iowa
Worst losses: Western Illinois, Milwaukee
Regular season conference finish: T-3rd, Big Ten
Polls and metrics: Wisconsin's late season success pushed it to the fringes of both major top 25 polls, but the Badgers linger outside the top 30 in the RPI, BPI and KenPom.
All-time tourney record: 34-20, one national title, four Final Fours
Coach's tourney record: Greg Gard (0-0)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C Ethan Happ (11.9 PPG, 7.8 RPG)
F Vitto Brown (9.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
F Nigel Hayes (16.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
G Zak Showalter (7.7 PPG, 2.3 APG)
G Bronson Koenig (13.5 PPG, 2.5 APG)
Key bench players
G Jordan Hill (3.3 PPG, 0.8 APG)
F Khalil Iverson (2.8 PPG, 2.0 RPG)
C Alex Illikainen (2.4 PPG, 1.6 RPG)
Biggest strength: Wisconsin's team defense is outstanding. It starts on the ball, where guards Koenig and Showalter use both strength and foot speed to prevent penetration. Wisconsin doesn't pressure opposing guards beyond 25 feet, but it cuts off all routes to the rim, and plays some of the most intelligent help defense in college basketball.
Biggest weakness: When Wisconsin's spacing is off, or when its swing offense for whatever reason isn't functioning, it can become a bit sluggish. Forward Hayes and center Happ are capable of creating for themselves at times, but as a whole, the Badgers lack one-on-one scorers. As good as players like Koenig and Brown have been, most of their success comes within the flow of the offense, not when that flow is disrupted. In addition, offensive options off the bench are limited.
Best player: Hayes initially struggled to make the leap from efficient fringe option to go-to guy. But even as he grappled with revamped shot mechanics, the junior adjusted to the new role and developed into an All-Big Ten first team player. Hayes is best when he's in attack mode, with an uncanny ability to seek out contact but remain unperturbed by it. He gets to the free-throw line at a high rate, and also may be Wisconsin's best passer.
X factor: From an individual perspective, Brown's evolution has been arguably the biggest reason for Wisconsin's turnaround. A complete non-factor as an underclassman, the 6-8 junior was Wisconsin's second-most efficient player from January through the end of the regular season. He's become a more than reliable 3-point shooter, and is the ideal complement to Koenig, Hayes and Happ.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: One of the staples for Ryan's Badgers during the years had been his famed swing offense. Toward the very end of his tenure, Wisconsin strayed from it. When Gard took charge, the first-time head coach revived the swing, and it has benefited players like Brown and Happ.
Defensive approach: Although the Badgers' defensive identity has always been about limiting dribble-penetration and coercing opponents into taking long 2s, this season's team has thrown in a new wrinkle. It's still the same tough man-to-man, but Gard's squad has put an increased emphasis on playing with active hands. Last year's Final Four team finished dead last in the Big Ten in steal percentage during conference play, but this year's edition finished second, and led the pack in turnover percentage. Happ's ability to make plays on the ball in the post has been a revelation.
How they beat you: Wisconsin's plodding style wears you down not just physically, but also mentally. The Badgers have the third-slowest offense in the country. They go possession by possession, working diligently to get the look they want. More often than not, they get it. When they do, your margin for error on offense decreases, and every ill-advised shot carries more weight.
How you beat them: Making outside shots is always nice, but victories against Wisconsin start on the defensive end. Look at what Nebraska did in the Big Ten tournament. The Cornhuskers jammed cutters, bodied up drivers and knocked Wisconsin's offense off kilter. Unable to get to the rim, Wisconsin's open jump shots then dried up too, and Nebraska pulled off the upset.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 47th (111.6)
Defensive efficiency, 23rd (95.3)
3-point percentage, 95th (36.3)
3-point percentage D, 327th (38.2)
Free throw rate, 106th (39.2)
Free throw rate D, 99th (33.5)
TO percentage, 98th (17.0)
TO percentage D, 131st (18.8)
Good stat: 29.7 opponent 3-point attempt rate
As a stand-alone figure, this is neither a positive nor a negative. But it's important to note, because on paper, it appears that Wisconsin is susceptible to sharpshooting opponents. Wisconsin's 3-point percentage defense ranks in the bottom 25 in the nation. In reality though, the Badgers do a pretty good job of limiting open looks from 3-point range.
Bad stat: 49.5 effective field goal percentage
The single biggest difference between this Wisconsin outfit and those of years past is shooting. It's a roster-wide issue. The above number ranks 195th nationally, worse than any mark from the Ryan era.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Elite Eight
Wisconsin beat Michigan State, Indiana, Iowa and Maryland. That alone makes it an Elite Eight candidate, if not a Final Four contender. But Bucky isn't the same team it was last season, and its limitations will come into view as early as the second round. That's not to say Gard's crew can't grind its way to an upset or two, but an extended run all the way to Houston seems a tad far-fetched.
Worst-case scenario: First-round clunker
The past two games have exposed some of the Badgers' shortcomings. Those same shortcomings could again be exposed on the first weekend of the tournament, perhaps as early as the first-round matchup.