One of college basketball's "it" programs over the past three years, the Wichita State Shockers actually had to sweat out the days leading up to Selection Sunday. The 2016 Missouri Valley regular season champion lost to Northern Iowa in the Arch Madness semifinals and was tossed into the pool of at-large hopefuls. The Shockers are 24-8, which represents two more blemishes on their 2015-16 record than they had in the past two seasons combined. But the Shockers feature the lethal backcourt combo of Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker, and a proven March maestro in coach Gregg Marshall. Will Wichita State be one of those 11th-hour invitees that refuses to leave the party early?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Utah
Worst losses: at Illinois State, Northern Iowa (twice)
Regular-season conference finish: First, Missouri Valley Conference
Polls and metrics: Even with the conference semifinal loss to Northern Iowa, the Shockers ended the MVC tourney with a healthy 24 BPI.
All-time tourney record: 15-13, two Final Fours
Coach's tourney record: Gregg Marshall (8-11, one Final Four appearance)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F/C Shaquille Morris (6.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
F Zach Brown (7.1 PPG, 3.0 RPG)
F Evan Wessel (3.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
G Ron Baker (14.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG)
G Fred VanVleet (12.0 PPG, 5.7 APG)
Key Bench Players
C Anton Grady (8.0 PPG, 4.6 RPG)
F Markis McDuffie (7.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
G Conner Frankamp (6.1 PPG, 1.0 APG)
Biggest strength: Top-flight guards make navigating through Bracketville much easier, and nobody has a more dynamic duo than VanVleet and Baker. The pressures of March Madness are old hat for the pair of killer guards. Add in an accomplished X's-and-O's man in Marshall, the nation's most efficient defense, and a team that commits few turnovers, and you have the makings of a potential office-pool wrecker.
Biggest weakness: A fringe benefit of going on one of the most historic hoops run in Missouri Valley history is that Wichita State is attracting more top-notch talent. But while the inside horses are gifted, it's a younger bunch, other than graduate student Grady, an old-school low-post operator who is the cousin of former NBA veteran Earl Boykins. If Grady is off the floor for long stretches, can the younger bigs make enough plays in the pressure-cooker atmosphere of the NCAA tourney?
Best player: VanVleet. This is a tough call between Wichita's stat sheet-stuffing guards, but VanVleet, the two-time MVC Player of the Year, is a force on both ends of the floor for the Shockers. He calmly runs the show on offense and applies tremendous pressure on opposing point guards at the defensive end.
X factor: McDuffie, the MVC's top newbie, and sophomores Morris, Rashard Kelly, and Brown. These young pups are key cornerstones in the future of Shockers basketball. They all possess through-the-roof potential but will need to produce amid the madness of this March for Wichita to make a deep 2016 tourney run.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Shockers ride the perimeter pop of double-figure scoring seniors Baker and VanVleet to victory. Their bigs set ball screens aplenty for VanVleet and Baker to either shoot a perimeter jumper or get into the teeth of the defense. Devote too much manpower to stopping Wichita's terrific guards and Brown, Morris, Grady and McDuffie will make you pay.
Defensive approach: Wichita State primarily plays man-to-man D, with VanVleet doggedly pressuring the primary ball handler up top. However, the Shockers will occasionally apply some full-court pressure in the hopes of speeding up and creating turnovers.
How they beat you: Marshall's team beats opponents with stellar guard play, stingy defense (allowing just 59.3 ppg), hard-to-match toughness, and one of the nation's lowest turnover rates. That's a formula designed for NCAA tourney success.
How you beat them: The Shockers -- like most elite mid-major programs -- are littered with 6-7 and 6-8 bigs and are susceptible to a high-major foe with taller, formidable post players. If older forwards Grady and Wessel get into foul difficulty, and the young but gifted frontcourt players act their ages, it could be curtains for the Shockers.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 78th (109.1)
Defensive efficiency, 1st (89.9)
3-point percentage, 254th (32.9)
3-point percentage D, 77th (32.7)
Free throw rate, 148th (37.8)
Free throw rate D, 325th (45.4)
TO percentage, 11th (14.8)
TO percentage D, 6th (23.2)
Good stat: 89.9 defensive efficiency
Marshall's "Play Angry" group of players defends as if their scholarships will be revoked if they ease up even one iota. With a Doberman to attack enemy ball handlers in VanVleet, and a rotation brimming with lithe, long-limbed athletes, the Shockers apply suffocating pressure on each pass and, as a result, they are the most efficient defensive team in the college game.
Bad stat: 45.4 free throw rate defense
There isn't a more aggressive team in the field of 68 than Wichita State. The plus side is that the Shockers are in the hunt for every single loose ball and make a bevy of hustle plays each night. One drawback is that Marshall's amped-up squad can be foul-prone at times, allowing opponents to get in the bonus and parade to the foul line.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Final Four
Wichita State sports one of the best guard combos in the country in VanVleet and Baker, a terrific coach in Marshall, and a lock-down defense. The Shockers could easily string together four wins in this tournament.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
Wichita State is not without its weaknesses (i.e. lack of size and the overall youth of its frontcourt), but it's hard to imagine the Shockers not winning at least one NCAA tourney game.