The Weber State Wildcats won 10 of their last 11 games, including a win over Montana to capture their second Big Sky title in the past three seasons. Led by conference player of the year Joel Bolomboy, the Wildcats are more talented and more athletic than the average mid-major tournament champion. But are they talented enough to win their first NCAA tournament game since 1999?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: South Dakota State, Montana (twice)
Worst losses: at Utah Valley, at Idaho State, at North Dakota
Regular season conference finish: 1st, Big Sky
Polls and metrics: Weber State, unranked all season, finished 118th in RPI and 131st in BPI.
All-time tourney record: 6-16 (last win in 1999)
Coach (tourney record): Randy Rahe (0-2)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Joel Bolomboy (17.9 PPG, 12.8 RPG)
F Zach Braxton (6.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
G Ryan Richardson (6.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG)
G Jeremy Senglin (17.8 PPG, 2.6 APG)
G McKay Cannon (5.2 PPG, 2.5 APG)
Key bench players
F Kyndahl Hill (8.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
G Dusty Baker (5.8 PPG, 2.6 RPG)
G Cody John (4.9 PPG, 1.7 APG)
Biggest strength: Top-end talent. Bolomboy and Senglin, a first-team All-Big Sky selection, have carried the Wildcats all season. Bolomboy is the conference's all-time leading rebounder and has an NBA future, while Senglin has an uncanny ability to score in a variety of ways.
Biggest weakness: Depth. After Bolomboy and Senglin, Weber State suffers a significant drop-off in talent, which is worrisome against teams that can take away their offense with double-teams. If Weber State's role players aren't contributing offensively, their approach becomes repetitive and predictable.
Best player: Bolomboy. His 24 regular-season double-doubles ranked third nationally, as did his rebounds per game (12.8). He's remarkably athletic and is a better ball handler than you might expect, which allows him to slither out of double-teams and create open perimeter shots for his teammates. Opponents must key on him on box-outs, or else the Wildcats can pile up second-chance points.
X factor: Richardson. Weber State's opponents have no choice but to double-team Bolomboy in the post and play aggressive help defense on Senglin drives. Therefore, Richardson's catch-and-shoot ability on the perimeter becomes an especially valuable means of offense. The Wildcats went 13-1 this season in games in which he made multiple 3-pointers.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Rahe's team plays at a deliberate tempo and ensures a touch by Bolomboy or Senglin on nearly every possession. The Wildcats are at their best when they feed off one another in pick-and-roll and high-low situations, resulting in high-percentage looks in the paint or inside-out perimeter shots.
Defensive approach: The Wildcats are primarily a man-to-man team but are long enough to play zone defense if the matchup calls for it. Nearly 58 percent of their opponents' points come from two-point shots, the eighth-highest total in the nation. Aggressive perimeter defense lures opponents into the paint, where Bolomboy can showcase his shot-blocking ability (1.3 BPG).
How they beat you: The Wildcats' approach isn't a secret -- they live and die by their primary offensive playmakers. Defensively, they possess sneaky length for a mid-major, which makes it difficult for their opponents to score inside.
How you beat them: Weber State is much less dangerous with Bolomboy on the bench, so smart teams attack him early in the game in an effort to get him into foul trouble. The Wildcats also suffer from a lack of trustworthy ball handlers, so teams have enjoyed success deploying a full-court press after made buckets.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 204th (102.2)
Defensive efficiency, 90th (99.5)
3-point percentage, 144th (35.5)
3-point percentage D, 227th (35.6)
Free throw rate, 3rd (47.9)
Free throw rate D, 36th (29.1)
TO percentage, 252nd (19.3)
TO percentage D, 319th (15.6)
Good stat: 47.9 free throw rate
Weber State attempts nearly half as many free throws per game as it does field goals, which shows its offensive attacking style in the half court. Bolomboy is the cog in this process, making nearly five free throws per game while shooting over 70 percent. Weber State's opponents must be cognizant of this dynamic early in the game so that their bigs don't spend most of the first half on the bench in foul trouble.
Bad stat: 15.6 TO percentage D
The Wildcats force a turnover on fewer than 16 percent of opponents' possessions. Teams that can't turn defense into offense put enormous pressure on themselves to score in the half court because easy transition buckets are rarely available.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Round of 32
Because Weber State has two players in Bolomboy and Senglin who could play for practically anybody, they are an uncomfortable matchup and should not be taken lightly. If high-percentage looks are available for that duo while they create open perimeter shots for their teammates, the Wildcats could spring an upset.
Worst-case scenario: Round of 64 exit
The Wildcats' lack of ballhandling could be their undoing against a team that doesn't allow them to become comfortable running half-court sets. Their lack of depth could easily be exploited if Bolomboy and Senglin don't mount a Herculean effort.