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Bracket Projection: Virginia

The Virginia Cavaliers are in the midst of their finest sustained hoops success since the Ralph Sampson glory days. They are one of the top seeds in the entire NCAA tournament and have followed Tony Bennett's simple yet successful recipe for success: value each possession, pass up a good shot to share the ball with a teammate who has a better one, shoot the 3-ball effectively and play defense or sit next to me. Can this experienced and successful bunch win the whole enchilada?

ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.


TOURNEY PROFILE

Best wins: West Virginia, Villanova, California, Notre Dame, Louisville (twice), North Carolina, Miami

Worst losses: at George Washington, at Virginia Tech

Regular-season conference finish: Second in the Atlantic Coast Conference

Polls and metrics: The Cavaliers are one of the country's best teams by any metric: No. 4 in both AP and USA Today polls and No. 2 in the BPI.

All-time tourney record: 25-19, two Final Fours

Coach's tourney record: Tony Bennett brings with him a 6-5 record.

Bracketology chart | BPI information


PERSONNEL

(Note: Player statistics are through games March 6.)

STARTING LINEUP

F Anthony Gill (13.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG)
F Isaiah Wilkins (4.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
G Devon Hall (4.6 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
G Malcolm Brogdon (18.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG)
G London Perrantes (11.2 PPG, 4.4 APG)

Key bench players

C Mike Tobey (6.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG)
G Darius Thompson (4.4 PPG, 1.6 APG)
G Marial Shayok (3.9 PPG, 1.6 RPG)

Biggest strength: Charlottesville is home to three of the ACC's best players: 6-foot-5 senior Brogdon, 6-foot-2 junior Perrantes and 6-foot-8 senior Gill. Brogdon is arguably the best two-way wing in the nation, and Perrantes is UVa's coach on the floor, while Gill is a double-double threat every time he steps on the court.

Biggest weakness: Virginia's snail-paced offense keeps the Cavs in every game by limiting the number of possessions and keeping scores low. But that will also keep a top-shelf opposing team in the game.

Best player: Brogdon won the 2016 ACC Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year awards and will be on his fair share of All-American teams. He averages more than 18 points per game, makes 41 percent of his 3-point tries and defends like a banshee.

X factors: Senior big men Gill and Tobey. NCAA tournament games are more physical, lower-possession games, so teams need plenty of big bodies inside in order to advance. In Gill and Tobey, the Cavaliers have some Grade-A frontcourt beef. They are smart, tough, experienced hands who want to go out with a real senior moment: a trip to the Final Four.


SCOUTING REPORT

Offensive approach: Under Coach Bennett, Virginia expertly spaces the floor and plays his deliberate style. On each trip, Bennett implores his troops to make multiple passes and get multiple touches for his all-everything wing Brogdon. While Brogdon is Virginia's first option, he is far from the team's only one, as Perrantes is a lights-out long-distance shooter, and the underrated Gill is a baseline beast.

Defensive approach: Entering the ACC tournament, Virginia's stingy "Pack Line" defense was allowing just 59.6 ppg, which ranks second in the nation in scoring D. In the "Pack Line" defense, the on-ball defender comes out and pressures his man, while the other four Cavs stay inside the "pack" by keeping within an imaginary line just inside the 3-point arc.

How they beat you: They smother you on defense and make you guard them for the entire shot clock on offense. Late in the shot clock, Bennett makes sure the ball is swung into Brogdon or Perrantes' hands so they can work their magic.

How you beat them: By matching Virginia's mental toughness and being ready to play a slow, grind-it-out style. It's most likely going to take a proven March winner to send the Cavs packing. Don't believe us? It has taken Michigan State -- absolute NCAA tourney royalty under Tom Izzo -- to vanquish Virginia in each of the past two Dances.


WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY

(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games March 6.)

NATIONAL RANKS

Offensive efficiency: 9th (118.9)
Defensive efficiency: 7th (92.3)
3-point percentage: 10th (40.6)
3-point percentage D: 173rd (34.7)
Free throw rate: 268th (33.1)
Free throw rate D: 104th (33.9)
TO percentage: 19th (15.3)
TO percentage D: 87th (19.4)

Good stat: 118.9 offensive efficiency
The Cavaliers have been one of the nation's best defensive teams for quite a while, but this is probably Bennett's best offensive team since he arrived in Charlottesville. They have a nice blend of inside and outside scoring and are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NCAA tourney.

Bad stat: 33.1% free throw rate
The Cavaliers start three guards, so their offense can become jumper-oriented, which results in a mix of midrange shots, drives and some trifecta tries by Brogdon (.411 from 3) and Perrantes (.508 from 3). Therefore, trips to the charity stripe aren't plentiful.


HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?

Best-case scenario: National title
The Cavaliers' unique style frustrates opponents because the game is slowed to a tortoise-like pace. It's not a style opposing teams see every day (especially with the shorter shot clock), so the novelty of the Cavs' style, the star power of Brogdon and the overall experience level of UVa's rotation will make Bennett's team a tough out in this tournament.

Worst-case scenario: Round of 32 exit
In essence, Virginia's style, with typical scores in the low 60s, keeps both teams in most games. That raises the likelihood that the Cavs are beaten by a last-second dagger.