The Villanova Wildcats entered last season's NCAA tournament as a No. 1 seed but failed to reach the Sweet 16. Jay Wright's club hasn't advanced to the second weekend of tournament play since reaching the Final Four in 2009. The Wildcats enter this tournament with a team comprising stars and unheralded glue guys. Villanova has had as much or more talent in recent memory but has not been able to follow through. Is this their year?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at St. Joseph's, Georgia Tech, Xavier, Seton Hall, at Butler, at Seton Hall, at Providence, at Temple, Butler
Worst losses: Providence
Regular-season conference finish: First, Big East
Polls and metrics: The Wildcats spent three weeks atop the AP poll and now sit at No. 3 in the nation. The computers have also been friendly to Villanova, sitting third in RPI, third in BPI, and fourth in KenPom.
All-time tourney record: 51-35 (4 Final Fours, 1 championship in 35 appearances)
Coach's tourney record: Jay Wright (14-12, one Final Four in 12 NCAA tournament appearances)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C Daniel Ochefu (10.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 1.6 BPG)
F Kris Jenkins (12.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG)
G Josh Hart (15.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG)
G Jalen Brunson (10.5 PPG, 2.8 APG)
G Ryan Arcidiacono (11.7 PPG, 4.5 APG)
Key Bench Players
G Phil Booth (7.1 PPG, 2.3 APG)
F Mikal Bridges (6.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
F Darryl Reynolds (3.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
Biggest strength: Villanova's offense is crisp and effective, but it's the Cats' defense that really makes them great. Wright's team has posted the eighth-best defensive efficiency in the country this season. Ochefu is the anchor in the paint, blocking shots and outrebounding opposing big men. Hart, Brunson, and Arcidiacono swarm on the perimeter, forcing opponents into tough shots and turnovers. Villanova's relentless defense has given up the fewest points in all of Division I this season, a mere 65.9 per game.
Biggest weakness: For a team that plays a spread-out attack with three or even four guards on the court together, the Wildcats don't shoot the long ball at a high percentage. They've made only 33.5 percent of their 3-point attempts this year, 234th in the nation. That's not a number worth panicking over for most clubs, but Villanova has attempted 786 deep balls, 25th most of all teams. Nova has relied on 3-pointers, scoring one-third of its points from beyond the arc. For a team shooting the third-best percentage on two-point baskets, that's a lot of attempted 3s and a lot of missed 3s.
Best player: Villanova has many options on offense and many players with skills on defense, but Hart is the total package. The junior has done it all this season, leading the Wildcats in scoring. On top of that, he has grabbed 7.2 rebounds per game and played lockdown defense against some of the nation's best guards and swingmen. Hart's success has been more about efficiency than volume, leading the Big East in effective field goal percentage.
X factor: Senior guards are so valuable in March, and Arcidiacono is the perfect example. Arcidiacono hits clutch shots, finds open teammates, hustles all over the floor, and knocks down 82 percent of his free throws. Whether the Wildcats have the lead or need to come from behind, Wright wants the ball in Arcidiacono's hands.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Just as we've seen in past years, Wright loves to spread the court and allow his guards to create. Arcidiacono and Brunson are both capable of making jumpers and slashing into the paint. Jenkins can fill it up from all over the court and Ochefu is reliable on the block. On top of all of those weapons, Hart is Villanova's most consistent scorer. He picks his spots and scores 15.3 points per game, all as a part of the flow of the Wildcats' offense.
Defensive approach: Villanova plays a variety of defenses but relies most heavily on man-to-man. When Wright goes to a four-guard lineup or when the rangy, lanky Bridges checks in, the Wildcats will look to pressure, create turnovers, and find easy points in transition. The Villanova guards can afford to go for steals or close out quickly, with Ochefu behind them protecting the rim.
How they beat you: When Villanova has the ball, it wants Brunson, Arcidiacono, and Hart penetrating past the defense to dump the ball to Ochefu for dunks, or kick it out to Jenkins (and each other) for open 3s. On defense, the Wildcats want to lull opponents into low-percentage shots. It sounds simple, but Villanova wants to get the best shot it can on offense and force the worst shot it can on defense. It has been a winning formula all season.
How you beat them: Villanova has lost only four times this season, all to teams in the RPI top 50. In those four games, Villanova made only 35 of the 120 3-pointers it attempted, a ghastly 29 percent. Some of that is due to cold shooting from the Wildcats, but all four losses came to foes that are excellent on defense and forced Villanova to settle for those treys. While a sure-footed, in-rhythm bomb from Jenkins or Arcidiacono is a great option, end-of-shot-clock or rushed long balls are the death of these Wildcats.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 12th (117.1)
Defensive efficiency, 8th (92.4)
3-point percentage, 234th (33.5)
3-point percentage D, 109th (33.4)
Free throw rate, 232nd (34.5)
Free throw rate D, 66th (31.8)
TO percentage, 65th (16.5)
TO percentage D, 49th (20.6)
Good stat: 57.2 percent 2-point percentage
This stat says as much about the Wildcats' patience and passing as it does about their ability to shoot the basketball. Villanova has the 25th- highest assist rate in the country, at 61.1 percent. So much of that is due to the incredible court vision of Arcidiacono and Brunson, who act as co-point guards when on the floor together.
Bad stat: 47.1 percent of points scored on 2-point baskets
The Wildcats are so effective inside the arc, but score less than half of their points on 2s. Their 47.1 percent mark is 272nd in the nation. For a team that scores so well inside, Villanova shoots an overwhelming amount of 3-pointers. Cold shooting nights have been the Wildcats' curse so far this season and settling for too many long balls in the tournament could end their season.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Villanova wins its second championship.
The upperclassmen on this Villanova team have been through their fair share of tournament disappointments. No one on this Villanova roster has ever played in the Sweet 16. With this well-balanced and experienced group though, Wright has his best shot yet to cut down the nets in early April. If they can string together six consistent games, the Wildcats have a chance.
Worst-case scenario: Another first weekend elimination.
After a disappointing showing in last year's tournament, Villanova seems poised to prove all of its doubters wrong this March. If the Wildcats' jump-shooting turns ice cold early on, Nova Nation's return home to the Main Line could be an unhappy voyage.