A preseason top-20 team, the Vanderbilt Commodores were a major disappointment before awakening from a season-long slumber to compile an 11-4 record over its final 15 regular-season games. That impressive finishing kick allowed Kevin Stallings' squad to rocket up the SEC standings (they finished in a three-way tie for third place) and into the Big Dance. Now that they're in the Field of 68, the Commodores could be downright dangerous. Can Vandy keep up its dandy late-season play?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Texas A&M, Kentucky, Florida (twice)
Worst losses: at Arkansas, at Mississippi, at Mississippi State
Regular season conference finish: tied-3rd, SEC
Polls and metrics: Vanderbilt's 11-4 finish over its last 15 regular-season games got the Commodores to 19 wins and their RPI to 49 entering the 2016 SEC tourney.
All-time tourney record: 10-14
Coach's tourney record: Kevin Stallings (6-8)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C Damian Jones (14.2 PPG, 7.1 RPG)
F Luke Kornet (9.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG)
F Jeff Roberson (9.7 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
G Matthew Fisher-Davis (9.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
G Wade Baldwin IV (14.3 PPG, 5.1 APG)
Key Bench Players
G Riley LaChance (7.1 PPG, 2.5 APG)
G Nolan Cressler (5.0 PPG, 2.3 RPG)
C Josh Henderson (3.5 PPG, 2.2 RPG)
Biggest strength: Vanderbilt features a "Mr. Inside" in terrific 7-foot junior center Jones and a "Mr. Outside" in budding star sophomore point guard Baldwin. Jones was the best low-post operator in the SEC -- leading the Commodores in scoring -- and finished third in the SEC in assists.
Biggest weakness: La Chance, a 12.3-point scorer as a freshman who was good enough to be invited to try out for the USA Basketball's U19 World Championship team this past summer, has been mired in a season-long slump. He has averaged just 7.2 PPG as a sophomore.
Best player: Jones has his flaws (he's foul prone and has a Shaq-like free throw touch), but he's an NBA talent. Opponents face a pick-your-poison proposition when covering Jones. If you double-team him, Vandy's myriad of perimeter weapons, including Baldwin, can really hurt you. If you don't dedicate a second defender, then Jones, a .594 FG shooter, will eat you alive.
X factor: Kornet has improved by leaps and bounds during his time in Nashville. He was seventh in the nation in blocked shots (2.97 per game), earning a spot on the SEC All-Defensive team. His shot-swatting prowess provides a security blanket that allows the Vandy guards to extend their defense out to the 3-point arc.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach:Coach Stallings is no dummy. He aligns deadeye shooters Roberson (.476 3PT), Fisher-Davis (.455 3PT) and Baldwin IV (.436 3PT) out at the 3-point arc. They own three of the sweetest 3-ball strokes in the SEC, freeing up Jones to punish teams in the paint.
Defensive approach: Vandy's guards defend the 3-point line at all costs. If opposing guards beat them off the bounce, then the Commodores' matching set of 7-footers (Jones and Kornet) await to either swat their shot or to take a charge.
How they beat you: If Vandy's 3-point bombers get hot, then they're darn near impossible to control because foes can't double-team Jones inside.
How you beat them: Put Jones in a bunch of ball-screen defensive situations and he'll get in foul trouble. Don't believe us? He fouled out of seven regular-season games in 2016 and the Commodores aren't anywhere near as dangerous without him.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 29th (113.4)
Defensive efficiency, 35th (95.9)
3-point percentage, 19th (39.0)
3-point percentage D, 3rd (29.1)
Free throw rate, 86th (40.2)
Free throw rate D, 120th (34.5)
TO percentage, 75th (16.7)
TO percentage D, 343rd (14.4)
Good stat: 29.1 three-point percentage defense
Vanderbilt is third in the nation in this important category, holding opponents to just 29.1 percent shooting from behind the arc. They are eighth nationally in field goal percentage defense too (38.6 percent).
Bad stat: 14.4 turnover percentage defense
The Commodores' priority on defense is to guard you, not try to strip you. They are No. 35 in defensive efficiency (95.9) and effectively choke off the 3-point line.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Elite Eight
In the preseason, Vandy was a fashionable Final Four pick. The team's early-season sleepwalk tempered expectations, but the Commodores closed the regular season on fire. If they've truly figured it out, Vanderbilt has the size, smarts and shooting skill to be an office-pool menace.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
Vanderbilt's two best and most indispensable players, Jones and Baldwin, are both extremely foul-prone. Jones fouled out of seven regular-season games, while Baldwin was disqualified from five Vandy contests. If either or both face foul difficulty, the Commodores could be shown the door early.