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Bracket projection: VCU

Havoc still lives in Richmond, Virginia, even though the VCU Rams don't have Shaka Smart roaming the sideline anymore. Former Smart assistant and first-year head coach Will Wade is one of the nation's top young coaches and has his squad ready to build on the foundation Smart laid for the program. Can the Rams continue to add to an already impressive tradition of success in March?

ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.


TOURNEY PROFILE

Best wins: Buffalo, at Saint Joseph's, St. Bonaventure, at George Washington

Worst losses: at UMass, at George Mason

Regular season conference finish: 1st (Tie), A-10

Polls and metrics: VCU received votes in both top 25 polls this season and currently ranks in the top 30 of the BPI.

All-time tourney record: 12-14, one Final Four

Coach's tourney record: Will Wade (0-0)

Bracketology chart | BPI information


PERSONNEL

(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)

STARTING LINEUP

F Mo Alie-Cox (10.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
G Melvin Johnson (18.0 PPG, 2.4 APG)
G Korey Billbury (11.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
G JeQuan Lewis (10.3 PPG, 4.9 APG)
G Jonathan Williams (3.8 PPG, 1.9 APG)

Key Bench Players

G Jordan Burgess (4.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
F Justin Tillman (7.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG)
G Doug Brooks (4.5 PPG, 2.1 SPG)

Biggest strength: The Rams have the same M.O. under Wade that they did under Smart. Quick, athletic guards who shoot the lights out litter the starting lineup. Add in a defense that hasn't missed a beat and a powerful big man in Alie-Cox, and VCU can be a dangerous draw.

Biggest weakness: A fun but potentially problematic factor is that they start four guards. It's great when the Rams are forcing turnovers with their pressure, but they can end up on the wrong end of a major mismatch with bigger, more physical teams.

Best player: Johnson. The All A-10 selection with the wide smile has "instant offense" written all over him. Johnson can get into the lane and finish with his patented floater (nicknamed "The Melvin") and has Steph Curry range from the outside. If the Rams make a deep run, chances are he'll be at the forefront of it.

X factor: Lewis. In a conversation back in November, Coach Wade said he wanted Lewis to be a more pass-first point guard. The Tennessee native adjusted nicely to that role but has shown on multiple occasions that he's still very capable of a big night. Lewis was almost nonexistent in the Rams' last two regular-season losses, and that needs to change if they want to reach their full potential in the Big Dance.


SCOUTING REPORT

Offensive approach: The Rams get up the floor quickly in transition, using dribble penetration from their four guards combined with ball screens from Alie-Cox and Tillman to open things up in the half court. Johnson remains the focal point and has accounted for almost a quarter of their scoring. He can put the team on his back if need be.

Defensive approach: A fierce brand of half-court, man-to-man defense combined with the occasional zone trap is how VCU makes its living. The Rams are once again forcing lots of turnovers, but the biggest difference lies in how much they've improved when the ball crosses midcourt.

How they beat you: Wade's squad combines offensive balance with the ability to capitalize defensively on an opponent's mistakes. Its amped up half-court D also has made the 3-point line virtually nonexistent for opponents, a big reason why VCU once again finished at the top of the A-10 standings.

How you beat them: Pound the interior. With such a guard-heavy rotation, points in the paint are there for the taking. Some of VCU's toughest games have been those where opponents focused on beating them inside the arc and getting to the line. George Mason went there 37 times in one of the Rams' more head-scratching losses.


WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY

(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)

NATIONAL RANKS

Offensive efficiency, 87th (108.2)
Defensive efficiency, 16th (94.5)
3-point percentage, 75th (36.7)
3-point percentage D, 170th (34.6)
Free throw rate, 284th (32.4)
Free throw rate D, 173rd (36.9)
TO percentage, 81st (16.8)
TO percentage D, 7th (22.7)

Good stat: 22.7, turnover percentage D
The Rams can seemingly turn opponents over at will. Teams give the ball up on almost 23 percent of their possessions, making VCU one of the top 10 defenses in the nation in this category. If they're down in a late-game situation and need a steal, chances are they'll be able to get it.

Bad stat: 32.4, free throw rate
You'd think that a team with so many capable scorers would get to the foul line a little more. That's not the case with the Rams. VCU ranks in the bottom 70 of the 351 D-I programs when it comes to finding its way to the stripe. That could prove problematic in a tight game where it needs to get there.


HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?

Best-case scenario: Second round
The Rams have plenty of experience and offensive options to make a major matchup problem for someone in this year's field. Johnson and second-leading scorer Billbury will both be playing in their final tournament and have the big-play ability to try and make this a longer stay.

Worst-case scenario: First round Exit
VCU doesn't have a ton of quality wins on its resume, which raises the question of whether a tournament run in Wade's first NCAA appearance as a head coach is too much to ask. If the Rams go home early, it's likely because Johnson has had an off night and his teammates weren't able to pick up the slack.