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Bracket Projection: Utah

Last year's NCAA tournament trip was a celebration of the complete rebuild coach Larry Krystkowiak performed with the Utah Utes. Actually, rebuild may not be an adequate description. Resuscitation is more like it. Six wins in Krystkowiak's first year in 2012 to now back-to-back second-place Pac-12 finishes. And despite losing do-everything guard Delon Wright, the Utes might actually be better this season, courtesy of Pac-12 Player of the Year and sophomore center Jakob Poeltl. Last year, Utah reached the Sweet 16. Can this year's edition prove it is better with a deeper March run?

ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.


TOURNEY PROFILE

Best wins: vs. Duke, at Colorado, Arizona, Colorado

Worst losses: at Wichita State, at Stanford

Regular season conference finish: 2nd, Pac-12

Polls and metrics: The Utes were in and out of the AP poll early in the season, then they made a huge jump to the top-15 late. KenPom and BPI both have Utah on the fringes of the top-25.

All-time tourney record: 37-31, one national title, four Final Fours

Coach's tourney record: Larry Krystkowiak (3-3)

Bracketology chart | BPI information


PERSONNEL

(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)

STARTING LINEUP

C Jakob Poeltl (17.5 PPG, 9.1 RPG)
F Kyle Kuzma (10.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG)
F Jordan Loveridge (11.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG)
G Lorenzo Bonam (9.8 PPG, 3.1 APG)
G Brandon Taylor (9.6 PPG, 3.8 APG)

Key Bench Players

F Dakarai Tucker (5.3 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
C Brekkott Chapman (4.6 PPG, 2.0 RPG)
G Isaiah Wright (2.0 PPG, 1.1 RPG)

Biggest strength: The Utes are highly skilled in the art of fundamental basketball. They move the ball, make the right pass, don't over dribble, ball and head fake, take quality shots, stay in front defensively and box out with nearly every opponent's shot. It's not the flashiest basketball, but it's fun to watch a team execute so well. Having an All-American in the middle like Poeltl keeping defenses honest certainly helps.

Biggest weakness: Despite Taylor's presence on the Pac-12's All-Defensive Team, Utah can struggle bottling up the perimeter. The Utes are generally stingy, allowing opponents to shoot just 40.9 percent overall; but they don't force many turnovers, and teams shoot 36.6 percent from 3-point range against them.

Best player: Poeltl made a huge leap from his freshman season to become the Pac-12's best player. A likely lottery pick, the 7-0 Austrian nearly doubled his scoring average. But he has taken his improvement a number of steps further, excelling at the little things -- footwork, screening, creating angles for post moves and passing -- making him the kind of big man Krystkowiak could build the offense around.

X factor: Taylor. The 5-foot-10 senior point guard was suffering through a crisis of confidence early in the season, but after Utah opened 1-3 in Pac-12 play, he decided to force himself to play with more swagger and have more fun. Utah lost just twice over the rest of the regular season. A huge presence on campus, Taylor has been the heart and soul of the program for much of his career.


SCOUTING REPORT

Offensive approach: Ball movement that leads to good shots is the key component to what Coach Krystkowiak has instilled in this team. Utah assists on 58.1 percent of its field goals. There isn't much wasted movement for the Utes in the half court, and they are efficient on the break. It's nice to have Poeltl as a first option, but Taylor, Loveridge and the emerging Bonham are unselfish veterans all capable of making big shots.

Defensive approach: Krystkowiak has generally been a man-to-man coach, but he has utilized more 2-3 zone this season, which helps a team that only goes seven deep. Protecting the paint generally takes priority.

How they beat you: This is a smart, veteran team with success that is built on precise execution. The Utes rarely deviate from the game plan and will not beat themselves. They get the ball to open shooters and have enough of them to make defenses pay. With Poeltl, Utah can also dominate inside on both ends of the floor.

How you beat them: Utah can play up-tempo in spots, but the more up and down the game is, the less impact Poeltl has. The Utes would prefer to play at a tempered pace, which is why they rank 266th in the adjusted tempo metrics. Being more deliberate plays to their strengths of efficient execution. Getting them to play faster gets them out of their comfort zone.


WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY

(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)

NATIONAL RANKS

Offensive efficiency, 31st (113.2)
Defensive efficiency, 34th (95.9)
3-point percentage, 137th (35.6)
3-point percentage D, 273rd (36.6)
Free throw rate, 124th (38.4)
Free throw rate D, 2nd (23.7)
TO percentage, 118th (17.4)
TO percentage D, 311st (15.8)

Good stat: 23.7 Free throw rate D
An often overlooked skill is being able to defend aggressively without fouling. An already efficient Utah defense is made even better because the Utes minimize the opposition's trips to the free throw line, and those extra points that can decide close games.

Bad stat: 15.8 turnover percentage D
Utah doesn't force the opposition into many mistakes, which means very few easy transition baskets. It makes the Utes' offensive execution that much more important but also puts more pressure on creating them.


HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?

Best-case scenario: Final Four
Utah has the ingredients of a sleeper Final Four club -- an NBA-caliber player; veteran, reliable guards; big-game experience; and a high-caliber coach. The Pac-12 competition hardened the Utes for the toughest of circumstances in the tournament. They won seven in a row to finish the regular season. Four in row now is certainly possible.

Worst-case scenario: Round of 32
The depth of this year's field leaves any team subject to an earlier-than-expected loss. Even open shots sometimes don't fall. Poeltl will be tough for anyone to contain, but if he's the only one producing, the Utes could get picked off early.