The UNC Wilmington Seahawks are dancing for the first time since 2006 after knocking off the top-seeded Hofstra Pride in the Colonial Athletic Association title game in overtime. Coach Kevin Keatts' team will push the tempo and use a balanced, guard-oriented scoring attack to try to earn the school's first tournament win since 2002. Now, can the Seahawks pull off an upset over a decade in the making?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: William and Mary, Hofstra
Worst losses: at Radford, at East Carolina, at Towson
Regular season conference finish: 1st, Colonial Athletic Association
Polls and metrics: UNC Wilmington has not been ranked in either poll this season.
All-time tourney record: 1-4
Coach's tourney record: Kevin Keatts, (0-0)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C C.J. Gettys (5.2 PPG, 5.1 ARPG)
G Denzel Ingram (12.2 PPG, 3.3 APG)
G Chris Flemmings (16.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG)
G Craig Ponder (10.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG)
G C.J. Bryce (10.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
Key Bench Players
G Jordon Talley (8.8 PPG, 4.4 APG)
F Dylan Sherwood (4.3 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
F Devontae Cacok (3.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Seahawks sport the CAA's highest scoring offense (79.2 PPG) and fuel their offense with a defense that also leads the conference in steals per game (7.5). This is a team that likes to play at a quicker tempo than most of its opponents are used to and possesses a balanced scoring attack featuring four guards who are all capable scorers.
Biggest weakness: While steals are great, being overaggressive and committing fouls in the process -- especially in whistle-happy 2016 -- can be a very bad thing. Enter UNC Wilmington's 350th ranked free throw rate defense (54.3) that sends opponents to the foul line as much as any in America. In March, every single point is vital, and the Seahawks give away far too many at the foul line.
Best player: Flemmings. The 6-foot-5 junior forward is the first walk-on in CAA history to earn first-team All-CAA honors. While certainly undersized, Flemmings finished seventh in the CAA in scoring (15.5), third in field goal percentage (51 percent) and eighth in free throw percentage and steals per game. The forward is a solid 3-point shooter (36 percent) and provides matchup issues with bulkier forwards that he can take away from the rim.
X factor: Talley. The 6-0 sophomore dished out 124 assists this year against 44 turnovers, an astounding rate for a guy playing 24.7 minutes per game. Talley isn't a threat from deep (22 percent) but can impact a game with his ability to set up teammates for shots. Still, the Richmond native has posted 14 double-digit scoring efforts, displaying his ability to make a huge impact.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: UNCW is a team that thrives off attacking the basket, using its guard-oriented lineup to help get there. Gettys is on the block to do the dirty work needed to create space for Ingram, Ponder & Co. The Seahawks are patient in the half court but prefer to attack in transition and avoid 3-pointers unless they're great looks or late in the shot clock. This team runs inside out but not through traditional methods such as a dominate big man.
Defensive approach: Coach Keatts' team will turn the screws on you defensively and needs to score to apply its full-court press. UNCW is at its best after made shots, using an active and quick lineup to fly around the court and force turnovers that lead to easy buckets -- ideally in the paint or at the foul line. In the half court, the Seahawks play mostly man-to-man defense.
How they beat you: The Seahawks thrive when they create turnovers and convert high-percentage shots in transition. UNCW sports the 24th-best steal percentage in the nation (7 percent) and the 62nd-ranked turnover percentage. The Seahawks' balanced scoring attack prevents defenses from keying on any one player, though Flemmings, jet-quick Ingram and Bryce are the most dangerous trio.
How you beat them: By taking care of the basketball, beating their press and forcing them to make jump shots by packing it in defensively and keeping their guards in front of you. When the CAA champs force shots, rely on jumpers and play a slow-it-down half-court game, they take a huge step backward. Taking advantage of their foul-prone defense is also a huge weakness to exploit. A team with capable guards to handle pressure will limit fast-break points and stunt their scoring output.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 75th (109.4)
Defensive efficiency, 104th (100.3)
3-point percentage, 200th (34.1)
3-point percentage D, 147th (34.1)
Free throw rate, 196th (35.9)
Free throw rate D, 350th (54.3)
TO percentage, 44th (16.0)
TO percentage D, 62nd (20.1)
Good stat: 7.0 steal percentage (24th nationally)
UNCW's great half-court pressure defense leads to plenty of easy buckets going the other way, and seeing that the Seahawks prefer to avoid half-court sets, this is key. UNCW ranks 200th in 3-pointer percentage (34.1) and prefer to get Flemmings, Ponder, Talley and Bryce inside the arc.
Bad stat: 54.3 free throw rate defense (350th)
The Seahawks commit their fair share of fouls, and when you send good free throw shooting teams to the line often enough, you usually get burned. If they're going to pull off an upset, they'll have to combine energy and aggressive defense with smarts and patience. If they are matched up with a guard-heavy team that converts free throws, it could spell a parade to the foul line.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Opening-round win
Searching for their first NCAA win since 2002, it would be a truly remarkable if the Seahawks could upset anyone in the field. But with a veteran team that has learned to win games, anything is possible. The UNCW fan base and Coach Keatts both know how hard it is to get into the Dance, so expect them to relish the opportunity.
Worst-case scenario: First-round Loss
UNCW will be matched up against a team from a superior conference with superior players who will have a lot more to lose in a first-round game. No one will be disappointed with a loss, but the Seahawks will be upset with themselves if they don't show on such a big stage, regardless of foe.