Playing with a shallow bench and without a big man in their rotation, the UNC Asheville Bulldogs turned up the defense and pulled off back-to-back upsets en route to winning the Big South Conference championship. Now they are dancing for only the fourth time in school history. They have never played Cinderella in March, but can this team and its feisty, relentless defense do what no Bulldog squad has done before?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Georgetown, Winthrop (twice)
Worst losses: Radford (twice), Western Carolina
Regular-season conference finish: Third in Big South
Polls and metrics: The Bulldogs finished the season with the best BPI ranking in the Big South Conference. They rose in the KenPom rankings from No. 262 in the preseason to No. 112 after beating Winthrop.
All-time tourney record: 2-3 (three appearances)
Coach's tourney record: This is Nick McDevitt's first NCAA tournament appearance.
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Sam Hughes (10.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
G Dwayne Sutton (11.6 PPG, 7.5 RPG)
G Dylan Smith (13.6 PPG, 2.7 RPG)
G Ahmad Thomas (11.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG)
G Kevin Vannatta (11.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.7 APG)
Key bench players
F Will Weeks (6.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
G Trae Bryant (2.5 PPG, 0.7 APG)
Biggest strength: Asheville plays tough defense and forces opponents into bad shots and turnovers as often as any team in the nation. With no player in the rotation taller than 6-foot-6, the Bulldogs make up for their lack of size by playing pressure defense. Tons of steals on the defensive end lead to easy buckets in transition.
Biggest weakness: A lack of both depth and size has forced McDevitt's hand in playing his team's specific style. It has worked, to an extent, with a seven-man rotation made up of mostly guards that was good enough to win the Big South tournament. Against NCAA tournament-level competition, Asheville will have trouble playing against teams with size or deep benches.
Best player: Smith, who has put together a very impressive freshman campaign, led the Bulldogs in scoring, thanks in part to hot shooting. He has made three or more 3-pointers in 15 of UNCA's 32 games.
X factor: Sutton, who, despite being undersized, battles for 7.5 rebounds per game. He's the Bulldogs' rock on defense, as he adds 1.5 steals per night. On a team that struggles to match up with bigger opponents, Sutton is the guy doing the dirty work and playing much bigger than his height and weight listed in the program.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Asheville uses its small lineup to spread the floor and pick up the pace. The Bulldogs play at the nation's 79th-fastest pace, with Vannatta always looking to advance the ball in transition and find teammates for layups and dunks. When slowed into a halfcourt game, Asheville's guards look to slash to the hoop, rather than shoot from the outside. Only 22.5 percent of UNCA's points come from beyond the arc, the 25th-lowest percentage in the county.
Defensive approach: The Bulldogs play pressure man-to-man defense, with a focus on forcing turnovers. They won't press for 40 minutes or trap all over the floor, but with a rotation full of athletes, UNC Asheville is able to jump passing lanes and make opponents uncomfortable with the ball.
How they beat you: It starts on defense, where the Bulldogs look to run you off the 3-point line and force you into mistakes. Those mistakes, whether bad shots or live ball turnovers, will kick-start Asheville's transition offense. UNCA wants to speed the game up and create more possessions, with open looks on their end of the floor and trouble at the other.
How you beat them: When Asheville turns up the pressure and increases the tempo, opponents have been successful when able to control the ball and execute their offensive game plan. Consistent shot selection can crack the tough UNCA defense, especially when an opponent is also dominating the undersized Bulldogs on the glass.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency: 195th (102.4)
Defensive efficiency: 64th (98.1)
3-point percentage: 284th (32.2)
3-point percentage D: 2nd (28.8)
Free throw rate: 44th (42.4)
Free throw rate D: 95th (33.4)
TO percentage: 201st (18.5)
TO percentage D: 11th (22.4)
Good stat: 28.8% 3-point percentage allowed
So much of the Bulldogs' defensive success is due to their ability to stop teams from making shots beyond the arc. Asheville's opponents score only 25.4 percent of their points from long range, the 39th-lowest percentage in the nation. With four guards flying around the court, UNCA is able to close out on shooters at lightning-quick speed.
Bad stat: 32.2% 3-point shooting
As good as Asheville has been at preventing the 3-point shot, it has been nearly as bad at shooting the deep ball. Only 22.5 percent of the Bulldogs' points come from outside the arc, and that's in the bottom 25 in the nation. For a team looking to pull an upset, the inability to get hot from deep is a scary problem.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Pulling an upset
Both of Asheville's tournament wins came as a 16-seed in a play-in game. The school has never reached the Round of 32 in the NCAA tournament. If there were a year for it to do so, this season full of parity and chaos would seem to be perfect. If the Bulldogs can force their opponent into a cold shooting night, as they have many times this season, they have a chance to pull off a shocker.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done in blowout fashion
After finishing third in the Big South this season, winning the conference tournament was a sweet surprise for UNCA. Anything after that is gravy, but no one wants to be blown out when the spotlight hits them.