After Tulsa's 22-point loss to Memphis in the American Athletic tourney, no bracketologist worth his salt had the Golden Hurricane (20-11) in the field of 68. But the folks who mattered -- namely, the NCAA selection committee -- looked at Tulsa's résumé side by side by with the résumés of fellow bubble teams South Carolina, Syracuse and Monmouth and deemed the Golden Hurricane worthy of one of the last Big Dance invites. The 11th-hour invite means Tulsa will be appropriately in an 11-seed play-in game against fellow last-second invite Michigan. Now in the Dance, Frank Haith's team will go as far in the tournament as their gifted backcourt duo of James Woodard and Shaquille Harrison. The Golden Hurricane own wins over Wichita State, Oklahoma State, UConn, Temple and SMU. Will Tulsa's prolific guards make enough big plays in the play-in game to help them justify their NCAA tournament selection and advance to face Notre Dame?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Wichita State, Oklahoma State, UConn, Temple, at SMU
Worst losses: at Houston, Memphis (twice)
Regular season conference finish: tied-3rd, American Athletic
Polls and metrics: Tulsa enters the Big Dance with a 57 RPI.
All-time tourney record: 12-15
Coach (tourney record): Frank Haith (1-3)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Brandon Swannegan (6.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG)
F D'Andre Wright (5.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
G Pat Birt (12.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
G James Woodard (15.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
G Shaquille Harrison (14.8 PPG, 4.1 APG)
Key bench players
G Marquel Curtis (6.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG)
F Rashad Smith (7.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG)
G Rashad Ray (4.2 PPG, 1.9 APG)
Biggest strength: Tulsa is home to three Grade-A guards in Woodard, Harrison and Birt, and two underrated frontcourt players in juniors Smith and Wright. Harrison and Woodard are absolute stat-sheet stuffers, while Birt has anywhere-in-the-area-code range on his jumper. The team's bigs are undersized, but all voraciously attack the basket in hopes of layups or drawing fouls.
Biggest weakness: Tulsa's lack of frontcourt size. Haith's team starts three guards, and their lack of size means they sometimes get sand kicked in their face on the backboards.
Best players: Harrison and Woodard are an absolutely dynamic backcourt duo for Tulsa. If they played in the ACC rather than the AAC, everyone would know their names. A big game or two in the Big Dance (against brand names like Michigan and Notre Dame) -- something these explosive guards are capable of -- could turn them into March Madness darlings.
X factor: Smith. With opponents' scouting reports primarily focused on slowing down Woodard and Harrison's perimeter pop, the 6-foot-7 Smith -- whose brother played college ball at UConn and UNLV -- could have room to do some in-the-paint damage.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Haith has scoring options aplenty, but Tulsa's offense is guard-driven with Woodard (15.6 PPG), Harrison (14.8), Birt (12.4) and Curtis (6.7) all capable of reaching double figures.
Defensive approach: The Golden Hurricane don't have overwhelming size, so they mix man-to-man, zone and some pressure defenses. Their rotation drips with athleticism, allowing them to get into their stance and really stay in front of their opponents -- forcing teams to cough up the ball.
How they beat you: This senior-laden squad will go as far as their guards can take it. Woodard and Harrison can both score and are terrific rebounders for their size.
How you beat them: If Tulsa's guards are kept in check, they'll taste defeat in the opening-round game against Michigan.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 43rd (111.8)
Defensive efficiency, 79th (98.8)
3-point percentage, 246th (33.1)
3-point percentage D, 261st (36.3)
Free throw rate, 99th (39.5)
Free throw rate D, 122nd (34.7)
TO percentage, 23rd (15.5)
TO percentage D, 35th (21.0)
Good stat: 15.5 turnover percentage
With three and sometimes four guards on the floor at once, including seasoned seniors Harrison and Woodard as the team's primary ball handlers, the Golden Hurricane take great care of the ball and force foes to the turn the ball over at a high rate.
Bad stat: 32.9 three-point percentage
Despite owning a guard-oriented attack, the Golden Hurricane are better at slashing to the hoop than standing and shooting, with two exceptions in Birt (.370) and Woodard (.364). The rest of Tulsa's guards do their best work in transition and off the bounce in half-court sets.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Round of 64 exit
The NCAA tournament is a guard's game, and Tulsa has more tough guards than a state prison. In particular, Harrison and Woodard (whose brother Jordan Woodard plays guard for the Oklahoma Sooners) are gifted enough to put this team on their backs for a play-in game win vs. Michigan. But if they beat the Wolverines, they'll be hard-pressed to stop the high-octane Fighting Irish, particularly low-post force Zach Auguste in the paint, on a short turnaround.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
There will be lots of pregame talk about whether Tulsa and Michigan should be in the field at all. But both are in the NCAA's play-in game, against each other. There will also be some chatter about Haith's underwhelming NCAA tourney success (a 1-3 mark, including a loss to No. 15 seed Norfolk State when Haith piloted No. 2 seed Missouri in 2012). If Tulsa's stud guards are held somewhat in check by John Beilein, the Golden Hurricane could be sent packing in a blink.