Tubby Smith was brought in three years ago to rescue the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Mission accomplished. Tech had its first winning season since 2010 and is in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2007. He did it by throwing a bunch of sophomores into the fire and feeding them healthy doses of confidence. Now that they have returned to the basketball postseason, can the Red Raiders ride that good feeling to tournament success?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Texas, Iowa State, at Baylor, Oklahoma
Worst losses: at Kansas State, at Arkansas
Regular-season conference finish: Seventh, Big 12
Polls and metrics: The Red Raiders were a top-40 team in the BPI and KenPom, but never made an AP Top 25 appearance.
All-time tourney record: 8-15
Coach's tourney record: Tubby Smith (30-16, one national title, 1 Final Four)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Matthew Temple (3.6 PPG, 1.8 RPG)
F Zach Smith (10.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG)
F Justin Gray (8.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
G Keenan Evans (8.8 PPG, 2.8 APG)
G Toddrick Gotcher (11.1 PPG, 2.3 APG)
Key bench players
G Devaugntah Williams (10.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
F Aaron Ross (10.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
F Norense Odiase (8.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
Biggest strength: Earlier this year, the Texas Tech players took a vow of teamwork and then really took it to heart. Not one Red Raider is among the Big 12's top 20 scorers, but seven Tech players average between 8.7 and 11.1 points per game and they assist on 53.1 percent of their field goals. They are balanced, disciplined and thriving in the changed culture.
Biggest weakness: Tech can be had on the boards. They were ninth in that category in the Big 12 and 300th in the country in defensive rebounding rate. Getting Odiase back from a broken foot could really help.
Best player: Gotcher. The lone senior starter, Gotcher is the point guard, the leading scorer, and has a nearly 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. When he struggles, generally, so does Texas Tech. And, with such a young team around Gotcher and fellow senior Williams, Coach Smith needs someone to steer the ship.
X factor: Odiase. One of four highly regarded sophomores, Odiase had started nearly every contest of his career before a broken foot took him out of the lineup for 12 games. He was averaging nearly nine points per game before he got hurt, and now is back as the Red Raiders' only true low-post threat. If he stays healthy and gets back into playing shape quickly, Tech will get a huge boost for the tournament.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Smith would like the ball to move quickly and see both sides of the court before the Red Raiders hoist a shot attempt. That plays into the more disciplined approach, but also gets Gray and Smith, the club's two top offensive rebounders, time to move into space to do what they do best.
Defensive approach: Smith is largely going to play old school man-to-man with heavy amounts of ball pressure. Every once in a while he will throw in a zone as a change of pace, but with an intention to cheat on the shooters.
How they beat you: Winning Texas Tech basketball means moving the ball, gang rebounding, and the right balance of patience and energy. Smith has upgraded the talent level considerably in his three years in Lubbock, and it is now just starting to mature.
How you beat them: Tech was a combined 0-4 against Kansas and West Virginia, the two most physical teams in the Big 12. Not that everyone has Kansas or West Virginia's size and talent, but those teams are also aggressive and impose their will on games. Doing that early to Texas Tech would put this youthful team on its heels.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 25th (114.0)
Defensive efficiency, 85th (99.4)
3-point percentage, 166th (34.7)
3-point percentage D, 179th (34.8)
Free throw rate, 29th (44.0)
Free throw rate D, 81st (32.5)
TO percentage, 142nd (17.7)
TO percentage D, 134th (18.8)
Good stat: 114.0 offensive efficiency rating
This number results from the Red Raiders' plan to get everyone involved. That team-first mentality lends itself to the extra pass, which makes for more open shots. And Texas Tech doesn't take many bad shots. Even when they were struggling, sticking to their plan for running their offense eventually got the ship pointed in the right direction. That might be why they were able to erase a 2-8 stretch with a 6-2 regular-season finish.
Bad stat: 34.7 3-point percentage
Texas Tech's roster is mostly made up of drivers with aggressive offensive tendencies rather than prototypical shooters. So, deep shooting is not a strength. This number is not alarmingly bad, but this is not an area that contributes greatly to the Red Raiders' success.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
At one point during an eight-day stretch in February, the Red Raiders knocked off three Top 25 teams. So they are capable of stringing together a few big wins. Winning a second game would come down to the likes of Gotcher, Williams and Ross making shots like they did in their stunner against Oklahoma.
Worst-case scenario: First-round ouster
This was also a team that lost eight of 10 at one point. It's a credit to Smith and his staff to have gotten them through that without losing the entire season, but that stretch shows this Tech team still needs to play a full 40 minutes. They might still be young enough not to do that come tourney time.