When Shaka Smart left VCU for the coveted job of coaching the Texas Longhorns, he didn't arrive in Austin looking to impose his frenetic style on the current roster. Instead, he coached to the returning talent and, for the most part, made it better. Rick Barnes was let go largely due to short NCAA tournament stays. Ultimately, Smart will be judged the same way. Can an improved Longhorns team prove it with immediate tournament success under Smart?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. North Carolina, vs. Iowa State, West Virginia (twice), at Baylor
Worst losses: at TCU, vs. Washington, vs. Michigan, vs. Connecticut
Regular-season conference finish: Fourth in the Big 12
Polls and metrics: Texas didn't move into the AP poll until mid-February. BPI puts the Longhorns at 35. KenPom likes them a little better, at 28.
All-time tourney record: 35-35, three Final Fours
Coach's tourney record: Shaka Smart is 7-5 with one Final Four appearance.
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C Prince Ibeh (4.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
F Connor Lammert (7.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG)
F Demarcus Holland (2.9 PPG, 1.6 RPG)
G Javan Felix (10.6 PPG, 2.2 APG)
G Isaiah Taylor (14.8 PPG, 4.9 APG)
Key bench players
G Kerwin Roach Jr. (7.6 PPG, 2.9 RPG)
F Shaquille Cleare (3.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG)
G Eric Davis Jr. (7.3 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
Biggest strength: Inconsistency has littered every aspect of Texas' play this season, but for the most part, the defense has been good -- and certainly better under Smart. The Longhorns gave up 82 points to Texas Tech and 91 to Iowa State in January, but February was better. When Ridley went down with a broken foot (he recently returned to limited duty), Ibeh stepped in, became Texas' rim protector and won Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. As Smart has gotten more comfortable, he has started to press more, and that could be one wrinkle for the postseason.
Biggest weakness: More pressing has meant more three-guard lineups, with promising freshmen Roach and Davis getting more minutes, and that has left Texas a bit exposed in the half-court setting on both ends. The Longhorns were one of the worst rebounding teams in the Big 12, and the guards aren't yet good enough 3-point shooters to compensate. Any inconsistency the defense suffers can be traced to matchup problems. Sometimes Smart is caught in a "pick-your-poison" situation.
Best player: Taylor. The junior point guard is the primary example of a player getting closer to maximizing his talent under Smart. Taylor became the first Longhorn named All-Big 12 since 2012. He plays more under control, and his scoring and assist numbers are up slightly.
X factor: Jump shots. How the Longhorns shoot seems to dictate how well they play in other areas. At times, Texas has fallen into a pattern of letting missed shots impact its effort on defense and on the glass. How Texas' offense starts a game often foreshadows what the rest of the game will look like.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Texas' best offense, as has been the case for much of the past two seasons, is to put the ball in Taylor's hands and let him create. The Longhorns do not have an abundance of great shooters, especially when Felix is struggling, or other playmakers. Their preference would be to play fast in traditional Shaka style, but the big men are not quite there (Texas is 308th in adjusted tempo), which sometimes leaves Texas betwixt and between.
Defensive approach: As expected, the Longhorns are more aggressive under Smart than they were under Barnes. They pick the ball up at three-quarter court more often and play less zone. It's still not the kind of pressure Smart will one day play, but it's a more active defensive team than it had been the past few years.
How they beat you: Most of Texas' big wins are highlighted by big runs and good 3-point shooting. If the Longhorns can ride the wave of momentum, they are tough to slow down. That momentum generally comes from the defense or the play of Taylor.
How you beat them: Keep Taylor out of the lane. Texas' best offense is utilizing Taylor's explosiveness to create mismatches or kickouts for open jumpers. He is the only Longhorn truly capable of creating for himself or others. Limit him -- a case of plantar fasciitis is already doing that, to some degree -- and you limit Texas.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency: 34th (112.2)
Defensive efficiency: 33rd (95.8)
3-point percentage: 209th (34.0)
3-point percentage D: 157th (34.4)
Free throw rate: 92nd (40.0)
Free throw rate D: 187th (37.4)
TO percentage: 24th (15.5)
TO percentage D: 161st (18.4)
Good stat: 15.0% turnover rate
The one area of consistency and the greatest area of improvement from the past season is in Texas' ability to hang onto the ball. A year ago, the Longhorns were 230th in the country in this area. Under Smart, they don't give away nearly as many possessions, which might be why they stayed in contention in the Big 12 for most of the season, despite being erratic in other areas.
Bad stat: 34.0% 3-point D
Perhaps Texas' erratic results can be traced to its erratic jump-shooting. Young guards Roach and Davis just aren't yet ready to assert themselves. Taylor has never been a good deep shooter, while Felix has waves of success, quickly followed by games of little impact.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
If Texas can beat North Carolina, West Virginia twice, Oklahoma and Iowa State, then it is capable of getting to the second weekend. Smart has a reputation of success in the NCAA tournament, but the Longhorns haven't been to the Sweet 16 since 2008. Getting there would make people quickly forget the days of frustration earlier this season.
Worst-case scenario: Round of 32
Texas has become notorious for good Februarys followed by March flameouts. The 30-point loss to Kansas in the home finale was an indication that, even with a different coach, the Longhorns could be headed in the same direction.