For the first time in school history, the Stony Brook Seawolves are dancing. Their path wasn't easy. After a great season in the America East Conference, they trailed Vermont by as many as 15 points in the conference championship game in their home gym. Three-time America East Player of the Year Jameel Warney put the team on his back and posted a career-high 43 points to lead the Seawolves to a comeback victory. Can the excitement of the team's first NCAA tournament bid carry it to a Cinderella run?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Princeton, vs. Hofstra
Worst losses: vs. Vermont, at Western Kentucky
Regular-season conference finish: First in the America East
Polls and metrics: Despite playing in the 23rd-best conference in the RPI, Stony Brook is ranked 65th, thanks in part to having the 32nd-best nonconference RPI.
All-time tourney record: 0-0 (first appearance)
Coach's tourney record: This is Steve Pikiell's first NCAA Tournament appearance.
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Jameel Warney (19.0 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 3.0 BPG)
F Rayshaun McGrew (10.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG)
G Ahmad Walker (10.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.3 APG)
G Lucas Woodhouse (6.9 PPG, 3.5 APG)
G Carson Puriefoy (14.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.1 APG)
Key bench players
F Tyrell Sturdivant (3.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
G Roland Nyama (3.3 PPG, 1.6 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Seawolves have excellent patience and shot selection on the offensive end of the floor. Warney is a great post scorer, and everything the team does flows through him on the block. The entire Stony Brook team can make an entry pass to Warney, and the Seawolves look to get him a touch in the paint on every possession. They have found success there, as they led the America East Conference in assist rate and percentage of points from 2-pointers.
Biggest weakness: Stony Brook does not have a deep bench, after they lost starting forward Bryan Sekunda to a season-ending injury. Without Sekunda, only five Seawolves average more than four points per game. When Warney or Puriefoy leave the court, the team can seem a bit out of sorts. Pikiell has taken to spelling his best players for only one or two possessions at a time, but against more physical or active teams, the lack of depth could bite the Seawolves.
Best player: Warney is the heart and soul of this Stony Brook team. He's averaging a double-double for the second straight season. He has a soft touch around the basket, a series of effective post moves and a big body to create space for passing lanes. To top it off, Warney averages 3.0 blocks per game and was the America East Defensive Player of the Year.
X factor: Puriefoy's presence as a second scoring option is what changes Stony Brook from an above-average mid-major to a team capable of winning games in the NCAA tournament. His ability to hit 40 percent of his outside shots forces defenders into tough decisions about doubling Warney down low.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Everything flows through Warney, without any forcing or insistence on doing so. Pikiell is able to find organic ways to involve his star big man. This means getting him the ball on conventional post touches, in high-low action or as the screener in a pick-and-roll. Once the defense reacts to Warney, Stony Brook looks to move the ball to an open shooter.
Defensive approach: Stony Brook plays man-to-man defense and relies on Warney to protect the rim and anchor the defense. He averaged the sixth-most blocks per game in all of Division I this season, which allowed his teammates to pressure the ball and force tough shots over the defense.
How they beat you: The Seawolves' game plan, on both ends of the floor, centers around points in the paint. They control the block on offense by playing through Warney and prevent opponents from finding easy baskets on the defensive end. Stony Brook allowed the lowest effective field goal percentage and 2-point field goal percentage in America East play this season.
How you beat them: Vermont jumped to a big lead over Stony Brook in the America East final because the Catamounts made the rest of the Seawolves -- not Warney -- beat them. Even when Warney isn't scoring at incredible rates, Stony Brook is able to operate efficiently when he can get quality touches on the block. When other players are forced into tougher shots than they are used to, the Seawolves struggle.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency: 141st (105.3)
Defensive efficiency: 55th (97.5)
3-point percentage: 52nd (37.6)
3-point percentage D: 146th (34.1)
Free throw rate: 296th (31.9)
Free throw rate D: 26th (28.0)
TO percentage: 127th (17.5)
TO percentage D: 163rd (18.4)
Good stat: 28.0% defensive free throw rate
For a team that likes to play tough man-to-man and forces opponents into elite shot-blockers, the Seawolves do a great job defending without fouling. Getting stops down the stretch is one of the major keys to winning in March, and bailing your opponent out with a foul makes that much more difficult. Stony Brook is able to hold a lead or close a gap with strong, foul-free defense and a top-25 defensive rebounding rate.
Bad stat: 32.0% offensive free throw rate
On offense, the Seawolves struggle to draw fouls and get to the charity stripe themselves. For as much time as Warney spends in the paint with the ball, he barely cracks the top 10 in free throw rate in the America East. In the NCAA tournament, when play slows down at the ends of games, the Seawolves could be at a disadvantage.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Cinderella
The Seawolves check a lot of the boxes required of a team looking to pull upsets in the tournament. They have the size to compete with high-major programs, a star to rely on in tough moments and senior leadership. Warney finally has his chance to play in March, and he wants to make the most of it.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
Warney is an excellent player, but when he is faced with 40 minutes of double-teams, the rest of the Seawolves might not be able to step up and make the difference. This Stony Brook team might not have a storybook ending.