Dominating their conference for the third straight year, the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks locked up the Southland's automatic bid with a title game blowout win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, and enter the field as winners of 20 straight games. Brad Underwood's club has experience, depth, and can defend as well as anyone in the country. Will it be enough to pull an upset for the second time in three years?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: None
Worst losses: None
Regular season conference finish: 1st, Southland
Polls and metrics: Stephen F. Austin has received votes in the AP Top 25 poll. The Lumberjacks rank inside the top 100 of the BPI.
All-time tourney record: 1-3, zero Final Fours
Coach's tourney record: Brad Underwood (1-2)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F T.J. Holyfield (7.3 PPG, 4.2 RPG)
G Thomas Walkup (17.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG)
G Demetrious Floyd (13.5 PPG, 1.5 RPG)
G Ty Charles (9.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG)
G Trey Pinkney (2.8 PPG, 1.7 RPG)
Key Bench Players
F Clide Geffrard, Jr. (13.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG)
G Dallas Cameron (3.8 PPG, 1.0 RPG)
G Jared Johnson (6.2 PPG, 1.0 RPG)
Biggest strength: Aside from having one of the best coaches in the country who no one knows about, the Lumberjacks also have exhibited a ton of balance and have a bona fide mid-major star in Walkup. They also turn opponents over more than any other team in the country with a frenetic defensive pace that often includes full-court pressure.
Biggest weakness: If an opponent is able to break through their full-court D, the Lumberjacks suddenly become very vulnerable. There are often open shots to be had both on the perimeter and in the paint if a team can survive that first wave.
Best player: Walkup. The two-time Southland Player of the Year might as well as drive the bus and clean the locker room. That's how much he already does for the Jacks. The senior from Texas leads the team in scoring, rebounding, assists and field goal percentage and his ability to play bigger than his 6-4 frame will cause a matchup problem for someone.
X factor: Geffrard, Jr. The third-team all-conference forward means instant offense off the bench.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Walkup's unique set of skills leads a balanced scoring attack where six players average at least six points a game. The Lumberjacks don't rely on the 3-ball as much as a lot of other teams, but when they do take them, they're as accurate as anyone in the country, paced by sniper Floyd and his 87 regular season triples.
Defensive approach: In-your-face and frenetic man-to-man is the name of the game for the Jacks. Underwood's club will pick up full court and opponents often aren't sure where to turn to try and break the pressure. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi turned the ball over 20 times during the Southland title game, more the rule than the exception against this sound defensive team.
How they beat you: The defense's ability to consistently get takeaways means the Lumberjacks get lots of extra scoring chances. It's rare they lose the points-off-turnovers battle and combined with a deep and productive rotation has proved to be the difference-maker in a lot of their wins.
How you beat them: Beating their pressure and winning the rebounding battle are two places to start. The Lumberjacks are one of the nation's 15 smallest teams when it comes to average height. There will be second-chance points to be had and an opponent with a skilled frontcourt could have a field day in the paint.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 71st (109.7)
Defensive efficiency, 96th (38.0)
3-point percentage, 37th (38.1)
3-point percentage D, 120th (33.6)
Free throw rate, 277th (32.7)
Free throw rate D, 252nd (40.1)
TO percentage, 224th (18.8)
TO percentage D, 1st (25.9)
Good stat: 25.1 turnover percentage D
The Lumberjacks turn opponents over more than any of the other 350 D-I programs. They average nine steals per game and forced opponents into 20-plus turnovers on multiple occasions. If they need a big steal in the trenches, chances are they'll get it.
Bad stat: 32.7 free throw rate
For as balanced as the Lumberjacks are, you would think they'd get to the foul line a bit more. Stephen F. Austin ranks in the bottom 75 when it comes to free throw rate. What's even more unfortunate is that their defense sends opponents to the line at a rather high rate. If they're looking to get there late, it may be a tough task.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
The Lumberjacks have the benefit of having done this before. Walkup and Pinkney were both on the team that took out VCU two years ago and lead a squad with enough swagger, mental toughness, and defense to string together a run and slide the glass slipper on once again. If the Lumberjacks continue to capitalize on opponent mistakes, they will find themselves on the right end of at least one upset.
Worst-case scenario: First-round exit
While the Lumberjacks have the potential to emerge as a memorable Cinderella story, the reality is they play in a conference where they haven't been tested all season. Their opening-round opponent will without question be the toughest matchup they've faced since nonconference play, and will likely be prepared for SFA's unique defensive style, will weather that storm, and send them home.