The last time the Southern Jaguars made the NCAA tournament, they gave Gonzaga Bulldogs the heart attack of a lifetime and almost pulled off the upset as a 16-seed. Now, after winning the Southwestern Athletic Conference tournament, the Jags are back in the Big Dance. Can they scare someone again this time or, better yet, come away with a win?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Mississippi State, at Wyoming, Tulane, Texas Southern
Worst losses: Prairie View A&M, Jackson State, Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Alcorn State
Regular season conference finish: 4th, Southwestern Athletic Conference
Polls and metrics: Southern just barely cracks the top 200 of RPI, coming in at 196th. KenPom (227th) and BPI (222nd) haven't been as kind.
All-time tourney record: 1-8
Coach's tourney record: Roman Banks (0-1 in only NCAA tournament appearance)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Jared Sam (9.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG)
F D'Adrian Allen (3.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG)
G Christopher Hyder (9.7 PPG, 5.0 APG, 2.5 SPG)
G Trelun Banks (12.4 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.2 APG)
G Adrian Rodgers (16.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
Key Bench Players
F Shawn Prudhomme (9.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
G Chris Thomas (4.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG)
G Rashad Andrews (4.0 PPG, 1.8 RPG)
F Tony Nunn (3.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.2 BPG)
Biggest strength: The Jaguars play at a fast pace, the second quickest in the SWAC, but still manage to control the ball. They led the SWAC in shortest time of possession on offense and also had the best turnover rate in the conference. Those stats would seem to contradict one another, but Southern looks to push the ball and get a quality shot in transition. The Jags pushed the rock for enough easy buckets to boast the second-best effective field goal percentage in SWAC play.
Biggest weakness: Southern's interior defense has been a weak point all season. Without impactful size in the frontcourt, the Jaguars have struggled to control defensive rebounds and settled for fouling rather than getting stops. When the quick Southern guards get beat on the perimeter, opponents find little resistance on their way to the rim.
Best player: Rodgers is able to create his own shot and can score in bunches. He has failed to hit double digits only twice all season en route to his 16.9 points per game average. He looks to break down opposing defenders off the dribble, but he is also able to step outside and make open jump shots.
X factor: In his three years on campus, Trelun Banks has been a source of consistency for his coach (and father). He scores in double figures but is able to contribute to the box score in a variety of ways. During the closing minutes of tight games, his 37 percent 3-point shooting comes up clutch for Southern.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: With a host of guards able to penetrate to the basket, Southern looks to spread the floor and finish at the rim. This starts in transition but continues into the half court, where the Southern backcourt is capable of finding opportunities with the dribble.
Defensive approach: Southern's quick guards look to close out on shooters at the 3-point line and force opponents to beat them off the bounce. The Jaguars have found success playing that tight brand of man-to-man, allowing the 44th-best 3-point percentage nationally and nabbing steals at the 39th-best rate.
How they beat you: Southern wants to win in transition. While the Jaguars won't win the rebounding battle or outshoot anyone, they are able to create turnovers and exploit opportunities to penetrate into the paint. A Southern-winning pace features a lot of layups, dunks and points around the basket.
How you beat them: Southern's offense is so one-dimensional, relying completely on the dribble drive, that a team capable of defending with its feet and keeping Southern's slashers on the perimeter will force the Jaguars into difficult shots. If Southern is not able to beat the defense in one-on-one scenarios, it has a tough time scoring.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 241st (100.3)
Defensive efficiency, 248th (107.4)
3-point percentage, 194th (34.2)
3-point percentage D, 48th (32.0)
Free throw rate, 130th (34.8)
Free throw rate D, 230th (39.2)
TO percentage, 61st (16.3)
TO percentage D, 93rd (19.3)
Good stat: 41.0 assist rate
Southern's offense is so heavily isolation based that the Jaguars have the seventh-lowest assist rate of all 351 Division I programs. In March, when playing against the elite defenses in America, that kind of one-dimensional scoring is rarely able to succeed.
Bad stat: 337th ranked strength of schedule
Sometimes a highly seeded team plays a soft schedule and never gets the opportunity for good wins, while avoiding bad losses. That is not the case for Southern. The Jaguars lost six games to teams outside of the RPI 200, three of which came against teams outside the RPI top 300. Exhibit A: Southern was swept by Prairie View A&M, ranked 334th in the RPI this season.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: A competitive half against a tournament favorite
The last time Southern made the tournament and gave Gonzaga its money's worth, Southern was a different team. This Jaguars team is capable of making some plays and hanging around with a top team but not giving them a serious run down the stretch.
Worst-case scenario: A blowout loss by an embarrassing margin
The flipside of that lackluster best case would be a very dark worst-case scenario. If this Southern team falls behind, it might not have the offensive tools or defensive effectiveness to keep a game within striking distance.