Despite never dropping from the national rankings all season, the Purdue Boilermakers enter the tournament a bit under the radar. That seems impossible, however, given the size of Coach Matt Painter's massive frontline. Senior A.J. Hammons and freshman Caleb Swanigan have complemented each other nicely and have given opposing big men nightmares on the glass. Will knocking Purdue out of the NCAA tournament prove to be a tall task?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Florida, at Pitt, vs. Vanderbilt, at Wisconsin, vs. Michigan State, vs. Maryland, vs. Wisconsin
Worst losses: at Illinois
Regular-season conference finish: Fourth in the Big Ten
Polls and metrics: The Boilermakers have jumped around the AP Poll but have been ranked every week this season. They finished the regular season at No. 13. They sit in the top 20 of the RPI, BPI and KenPom.
All-time tourney record: 35-27 (two Final Fours, 27 appearances)
Coach's tourney record: Matt Painter is 8-8 in eight NCAA tournament appearances.
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C A.J. Hammons (14.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.6 BPG)
F Caleb Swanigan (10.4 PPG, 8.2 RPG)
F Vince Edwards (10.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.0 APG)
G Rapheal Davis (8.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
G P.J. Thompson (5.9 PPG, 2.8 APG)
Key bench players
C Isaac Haas (9.8 PPG, 3.9 RPG)
G Dakota Mathias (5.2 PPG, 2.3 APG)
G Johnny Hill (5.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG)
Biggest strength: Purdue's size is nearly unmatched and allows the Boilermakers to control the paint against any opponent. Hammons looms over 7 feet tall, and Swanigan is no slouch at 6-foot-10. When Hammons heads to the bench, Purdue actually gains size, with the 7-foot-2 Haas often replacing him. Purdue's roster features the 14th-tallest team, on average, and the players have used every inch to their advantage.
Biggest weakness: The Boilermakers' size works against them at times, with Purdue unable to spread the floor on offense and a step slow on defense. No team in the Big Ten grabbed fewer steals or forced fewer turnovers than the Boilermakers. They are built to play a certain pace and style and can struggle when taken out of that rhythm.
Best player: Hammons is among the best big men in the country. He plays a throwback style, with a toolbox full of fundamentally sound post moves. Few players in college basketball are as reliable as Hammons when playing with their backs to the basket. Seven of his eight double-doubles this season have come in Purdue wins.
X factor: Davis brings a welcome combination of senior leadership, strong defense and occasional scoring pop to this Purdue squad. Davis has scored in double-figures 13 times this season, with the Boilermakers winning each of those games, and Purdue is merely 9-7 when Davis does not reach his 8.6 points per game average.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Purdue's three highest usage rates come from their three biggest players: Hammons, Haas, and Swanigan. So much of the offense flows through the block, both in post scoring and players' cutting and moving away from the ball. Thompson, Davis, Mathias and Edwards find open space and are able to knock down open shots when the defense collapses on the post. When the defense doesn't collapse, the bigs, especially Hammons, are able to take advantage.
Defensive approach: Hammons is such a big part of everything this Purdue team does, and that is especially true on the defensive end of the floor. Purdue is not great at creating pressure or coercing mistakes out of opponents, but the Boilermakers are good at keeping the ball in front of them and relying on Hammons as a rim protector. His 10.64 percent block rate is second best in the Big Ten and 18th in America.
How they beat you: Purdue wins games the old-fashioned way. The Boilermakers share the ball on offense, and they look for easy baskets and open 3s as the defense collapses and reacts to their size. Hammons and the other big men dominate the glass and hold opponents to one opportunity each time down the floor while grabbing a few putbacks on the other end.
How you beat them: Five of Purdue's seven losses came at the hands of teams in the top 15 nationally in turnover rate (Butler, Illinois, Michigan and Iowa, twice). In the Boilermakers' other two losses, teams that typically struggle to control the ball on offense had no trouble doing so, with Maryland turning it over only eight times and Indiana coughing it up only four times. Because Purdue will own the rebounding battle, teams that take advantage of every offensive opportunity have had success against the Boilermakers.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency: 21nd (115.4)
Defensive efficiency: 30th (95.6)
3-point percentage: 70th (36.8)
3-point percentage D: 36th (31.7)
Free throw rate: 202nd (35.7)
Free throw rate D: 30th (28.4)
TO percentage: 159th (17.9)
TO percentage D: 347th (13.9)
Good stat: 23.4 offensive rebound allowed rate
The Boilermakers have allowed the 10th-lowest offensive rebound rate in the country and the lowest in the Big Ten. Hammons, Swanigan and Haas each average more than 10 rebounds per 40 minutes. Hammons and Swanigan sit among the top four of defensive rebounding rate in the Big Ten, with freshman Swanigan leading the conference.
Bad stat: 13.9 defensive turnover rate
Only four teams in all of Division I forced turnovers on a lower percentage of possessions than Purdue. Purdue has relied on its size to force opponents into difficult shots rather than turnovers. At a certain point, however, the Boilermakers run the risk of allowing foes more possessions, a healthy amount of which are ending in a scoring opportunity. For many teams, a defensive stop can come in all sorts of ways. For Purdue, it usually means a missed shot and rebound.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Elite Eight
Purdue doesn't bring many surprises. The Boilermakers will be patient on offense and look to dominate the paint. In March Madness, with multiple games in a weekend and such a wide variety of styles of play, a consistent game plan and a dependable source of scoring can thrive. Hammons can be a workhorse on the block for Coach Painter, thus winning Purdue a game or two as an underdog.
Worst-case scenario: Early exit
Consistency such as Purdue's can be troublesome in a single elimination tournament. An opponent ready for the Boilermakers' size and strategy -- whether a team that can match bigs to an extent or a smaller team that can chase Purdue around for 94 feet -- could spell serious trouble. The Boilermakers are one bad matchup away from a flight back to West Lafayette.