Led by one of the best guard-forward combinations in the country, the Providence Friars have the pieces to make a deep run -- maybe into April. Kris Dunn is not only a lottery pick point guard but also the type of lead guard who can carry a team deep into a bracket. But will the Friars' flaws outweigh head coach Ed Cooley's talented team?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Arizona, at Butler, at Creighton, at Villanova, vs. Creighton
Worst loss: at DePaul
Regular-season conference finish: Fourth in the Big East
Polls and metrics: Providence was a staple of the top-25 polls for most of the season but dropped out due to a poor February.
All-time tourney record: 14-18, two Final Fours
Coach's tourney record: Ed Cooley 0-2 in two appearances.
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Rodney Bullock (11.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG)
F Ben Bentil (21.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG)
G Junior Lomomba (5.5 PPG, 2.7 RPG)
G Kris Dunn (16.3 PPG, 6.4 APG)
G Jalen Lindsey (7.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
Key bench players
G Kyron Cartwright (5.5 PPG, 4.0 APG)
F Ryan Fazekas (5.6 PPG, 2.6 RPG)
G Drew Edwards (2.4 PPG, 1.7 RPG)
Biggest strength: When you have the kind of point guard-forward combo Providence does, you become a matchup nightmare for any opposing coaching staff. Dunn's ability to create for his teammates and Bentil's ability to finish inside give Providence a terrific set of weapons that few teams in America possess. The Friars' long roster and excellent perimeter defense force teams to put the ball on the floor or find seams to beat their zone defense.
Biggest weakness: While Providence boasts some incredible individual talent, it is a flawed team that struggles in the half court and to make shots. Teams that can contain Dunn and limit post touches for Bentil will have an instant leg up on Providence. The Friars' 47.5 percent effective field goal defense ranks 274th nationally.
Best player: Dunn. His next stop after the NCAA tournament is likely the NBA Draft lottery, as the 6-foot-4 point guard is one of the most explosive players in the country. Allow him to get out in transition at your own risk. Dunn has tallied 186 assists against 103 turnovers, and last season, he dished out a mind-blowing 247 helpers. Oh, yeah, he's also a lethal 16-point-per-game scorer who scored at least 20 points on 10 occasions.
X factor: Lindsey. The sophomore guard and consensus top-100 recruit from Tennessee teases with his ability, such as when he poured in a career-high 30 points in a win over St. John's to end the regular season. The Friars are 9-0 in games in which the 6-foot-7 wing shooter finishes in double-digits. Lindsey shoots 61 percent on 2-point shots and 27 percent from deep, which forces you to keep an eye on him from distance.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Most of their half-court sets are NBA-style pick-and-roll looks, with Bentil setting screens out high and Dunn having the option to drive, dish or shoot. Bentil is more than capable of popping out (31% from 3), and the weak side wing finds Bullock, Lindsey or Fazekas ready to shoot from deep.
Defensive approach: Dunn can be a disruptive presence on the perimeter, but Providence isn't necessarily committed to a man-to-man approach. The Friars are capable of playing a long, credible 2-3 zone with Dunn (6-foot-4), Lindsey (6-foot-7), Bentil (6-foot-9), Fazekas (6-foot-8) and Bullock (6-foot-8) all on the floor. Shooting over the top of this zone is tough for Big East teams, so imagine how hard it could be for a low-major or smaller roster.
How they beat you: Dunn and Bentil are one of the best 1-2 punches in all of college basketball. Adding the elusive third offensive contributor -- be it Lindsey, sophomore forward Bullock or freshman shooter Fazekas -- could find any opponent in for a long night. When PC receives big nights from its supporting cast, the Friars are a very dangerous club.
How you beat them: Stop Dunn from getting out in transition, slow the pace, and turn them into jump-shooters. Providence has the terribly bad habit of chucking 3-pointers early in the shot clock, despite owning the worst percentage in its 10-team conference this season. Their combined 69 attempts from beyond the arc in two regular-season losses to Xavier are noteworthy. When PC becomes a jump-shooting team in a half-court battle, it struggles to score.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency: 107th (106.9)
Defensive efficiency: 31st (95.6)
3-point percentage: 302nd (31.5)
3-point percentage D: 28th (31.3)
Free throw rate: 122nd (38.5)
Free throw rate D: 29th (28.4)
TO percentage: 51st (16.3)
TO percentage D: 44th (20.8)
Good stat: 31.3% 3-point defense
Providence's long roster (53rd tallest team in the country) and athletic wings coupled with Bentil and Bullock inside make shot-making difficult for opposing teams. The Friars rank 28th nationally in 3-point percentage defense, and with Dunn atop Providence's active and long 2-3 zone, it becomes difficult to knock down shots.
Bad stat: 31.5% 3-point percentage
On the flip side of Providence's great 3-point defense is its own porous outside shooting, which ranks 302nd nationally. Although Dunn (35%) and Cartwright (35%) are capable shooters, Providence is a poor jump-shooting team that can run into long scoreless droughts.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Elite Eight
Providence hits some outside shots and finds a third offensive option, and Dunn limits his turnovers while flashing the ability that made him a preseason National Player of the Year candidate. The Friars play into the tournament's second weekend and create a major headache for one of the traditional blue bloods. In this scenario, Providence's supporting cast rises to the occasion.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
Remember last year against Dayton: a 66-53 Providence loss in the Round of 64? Dunn got in early foul trouble, which helped make the Friars careless with the ball (9-to-16 assist-to-turnover ratio against the Flyers) and abject from the field (33.9 percent) while playing a half-court slugfest they were destined to lose. This team lost five of six games at one point this season, so slumps are not new.