Overcoming an underwhelming regular season, the Pittsburgh Panthers played their way off the bubble with an ACC tournament win over Syracuse. Jamie Dixon's squad missed out on the Big Dance a year ago and after a rough close to its regular season is looking to prove it once again belongs among college basketball's best. Can the Panthers overcome the odds and find their way out of their opening matchup?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Notre Dame, Duke and Syracuse (three times)
Worst losses: None
Regular-season conference finish: 9th, ACC
Polls and metrics: The Panthers spent a couple of weeks in the top 25 of both polls at the beginning of the New Year and are in the top 50 of the BPI.
All-time tourney record: 24-26, 1 Final Four
Coach's tourney record: Jamie Dixon (12-10)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Michael Young (16.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG)
F Jamel Artis (14.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG)
F Rafael Maia (2.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
G James Robinson (10.4 PPG, 5.1 APG)
G Chris Jones (6.4 PPG, 2.2 RPG)
Key Bench Players
F Sheldon Jeter (8.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG)
G Sterling Smith (4.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG)
F Ryan Luther (4.9 PPG, 3.0 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Panthers boast one of the nation's most efficient offensive teams. Pitt attacks the offensive glass with reckless abandon, passes the ball with precision and has a tough inside punch in Young and Artis. Add in a rotation that goes 11 deep, including instant-energy forward Jeter, and Pitt could be a rough first draw.
Biggest weakness: Dixon and company lack a true killer in the backcourt. Robinson is a decent scorer and has more than 1,000 career points but won't necessarily wow anybody. In a tournament in which guard play is of the utmost importance, the Panthers may come up a little short in this category.
Best player: Young. The four-man has good range for his size and will make bigger, less athletic defenders step out and play him outside the post. He can take over a game by staying active on the boards, and he got to the foul line in bunches in conference play, something the Panthers hope continues into the postseason.
X factor: Robinson. He's the Panthers' best option at guard and was their most consistent scorer down the stretch in conference play. With all the focus on the Panthers' frontcourt, there will likely be open shots for him from the perimeter in their opening matchup. The senior needs to be ready to step on to the big stage and deliver.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Pitt likes to get up and down the floor and is at its best in an up-tempo game. Young is its go-to in the post when in need of a big bucket, and Artis can extend defenses as a dual threat. The Panthers went 20-1 this season when they scored 70 or more points -- their only loss coming in the ACC tournament to North Carolina, which likes to run and score in the post as well.
Defensive approach: The Panthers run a mixture of man-to-man and zone, though their fans probably wish it was more of the latter. Pitt is seemingly at its best when it uses its deep and athletic roster to force opponents to step out and settle for the 3. Its interior defense has often been vulnerable to skilled bigs like UNC's Brice Johnson, who had a field day with Pitt twice.
How they beat you: Pitt's physical style of play and rebound-by-committee approach can wear out opponents. Young and company don't quit on the glass, and sometimes there simply aren't enough fouls to combat the Panthers' depth. Getting to the free throw line very much benefits Dixon's squad, one of the best in D-I from the stripe.
How you beat them: Teams that have slowed Pitt in transition have had the most success. The Panthers like a game in the 70s or higher and don't adjust well when the pace isn't in their favor. There's plenty of scoring to be had on the interior with the right guards. They also don't shoot a ton of 3s, meaning if someone jumps on them early, it could be hard to come back.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 37th (112.1)
Defensive efficiency, 77th (98.6)
3-point percentage, 162nd (34.8)
3-point percentage D, 201st (35.1)
Free throw rate, 179th (36.6)
Free throw rate D, 82nd (32.7)
TO percentage, 119th (17.4)
TO percentage D, 246th (17.0)
Good stat: 112.1 offensive efficiency rating
Pitt's knack for getting the ball inside and crashing the offensive boards with consistency makes the Panthers one of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. Their size and physicality can be daunting for a team that isn't used to playing that way. They also have one of the most experienced lineups in the tournament, a factor that can't be overlooked in a month when teams loaded with upperclassmen often find success.
Bad stat: 35.1 3-point percentage D
The Panthers' size across the board limits their ability to get to and cover the 3-point line. Teams that move the ball well around the perimeter are bound to find open shots. Combine that with their inability to force turnovers, and a team with a veteran backcourt is likely to pick them apart.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Round of 32
This is a good Panthers team, but it's not one of Jamie Dixon's best. Still, there are enough upperclassmen on Pitt's roster who have experienced the thrill of winning an NCAA tournament game. Depending on the draw, the Panthers could do it again if the opponent is one that lets the Panthers dictate the tempo.
Worst-case scenario: First-round exit
Pitt's worst losses this season came to teams that could combat the Panthers board for board on both ends of the glass and penetrate into the teeth of their defense. Coming out of the ACC, there isn't much they haven't seen this season, but their warts are well-documented. Their guard play must go up a level for them to have any kind of staying power in this year's field.