One of the longest droughts between NCAA tournament appearances is over. The Oregon State Beavers are in for the first time since 1990. It only took the greatest player in the history of the program to blossom into an All-American-caliber player to carry the Beavers here again. Gary Payton II and head coach Wayne Tinkle have made the Beavers relevant again. Can their rise continue?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Oregon, California, USC, Colorado, Utah
Worst losses: Valparaiso, Stanford, UCLA, at Arizona State
Regular season conference finish: 6th, Pac-12
Polls and metrics: The Beavers hover around 60 in both BPI and KenPom and never reached the AP Top 25 in this resurgent season.
All-time tourney record: 12-16, two Final Fours
Coach's tourney record: Wayne Tinkle (0-3)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Olaf Schaftenaar (6.6 PPG, 3.0 RPG)
F Drew Eubanks (7.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG)
F Tres Tinkle (13.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG)
G Malcolm Duvivier (6.3 PPG, 2.2 APG)
G Gary Payton II (15.7 PPG, 5.2 APG)
Key Bench Players
G Stephen Thompson Jr. (10.7 PPG, 1.8 RPG)
G Langston Morris-Walker (5.3 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
G Derrick Bruce (3.2 PPG, 1.0 RPG)
Biggest strength: Coach Tinkle plays nine guys who understand their roles, and the Oregon State bench routinely outscores the opposition. He has flexibility with his lineups, which are all built around Payton. Thompson, the son of assistant coach and former Syracuse standout Stephen Thompson, has proved comfortable starting or coming off the bench. No one other than Payton plays more than 28 minutes.
Biggest weakness: Inch for inch, the 6-foot-3 Payton is the best rebounder in the country. But that hasn't been enough, as the Beavers typically get outrebounded as a team. A good measure of their success on a given day is how they are holding up on the glass. A competitive performance there usually means Oregon State stays in or wins the game.
Best player: Payton. The first two-time Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year is the greatest reason why Oregon State is in its first NCAA tourney since his NBA-starring father played there. One of the best all-around players in the country, Payton also averages 7.9 rebounds per game and is an incredibly difficult one-on-one matchup off his lefty dribble.
X factor: Tres Tinkle's foot. The Beavers were dealt a huge setback after Tinkle was hurt in practice during Oregon State's final road trip of the season to Los Angeles and missed the Pac-12 tournament. Playing for his father, Tinkle became a starter on Jan. 20 and eventually became OSU's second-leading scorer. If he's unable to return, it will be a major blow to an already struggling offense.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Without Tres Tinkle, Wayne Tinkle has had the most success with a four-guard approach, with Thompson and Bruce joining Payton and Duvivier around either Eubanks or Schaftenaar. Thompson averaged 19.5 points per game as a starter in the final two regular-season games. Bruce, a quick combo guard, is playing the best basketball of the season. With Tinkle, the Beavers have a versatile big man who can create matchup problems for the opposition.
Defensive approach: Oregon State plays man-to-man but doesn't take too many risks. The big men aren't rim protectors or quick. Payton is an excellent on-ball defender, but he isn't quite The Glove II. He might, however, be more adept than his father at playing passing lanes. He led the Pac-12 and was seventh nationally in steals. In addition, Tinkle and Thompson ranked in the top 15.
How they beat you: Oregon State is a heady team that will always play a full 40 minutes and, largely because of the confidence of Payton, won't wilt in big moments. It's a deep team composed of players who know and have flourished in their roles. Payton and Thompson are good one-on-one players who can get their own shot in a big moment.
How you beat them: You have to know where Payton is at all times -- even when he doesn't have the ball -- because as one of the best rebounding guards in the country, he will find a way to get to the glass. Those easy baskets from offensive rebounds can help bail out an inconsistent offense. The Beavers have also been good in close games (5-0 in contests decided by four points or less), so get ahead to stay ahead.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 72nd (109.6)
Defensive efficiency, 75th (98.6)
3-point percentage, 66th (36.9)
3-point percentage D, 73rd (32.7)
Free throw rate, 189th (36.2)
Free throw rate D, 220th (38.8)
TO percentage, 76th (16.7)
TO percentage D, 79th (19.7)
Good stat: 16.7 turnover percentage
Oregon State balances a negative rebound margin with a positive one on the turnover side. For as much responsibility as Payton can take on, he is pretty efficient with the ball and averages just over two turnovers per game.
Bad stat: 38.8 free throw rate D
Oregon State's opponents get to the free throw line more than the Beavers. Their depth helps mitigate some of that problem, but Oregon State fouls far too much.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
Nothing about the Beavers jumps out statistically, but they're a team with good chemistry, depth and a superstar. If Tres Tinkle is healthy enough to play, then Oregon State has an inside scoring threat to go with an assertive Payton and could capture a couple of wins. If Tinkle is unable to play, winning more than one game might be asking too much.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
Just reaching the tournament is a big move for the program. Wayne Tinkle certainly seems to have the Beavers headed in the right direction. However, most of the good the Beavers did this year was at home. They didn't have a single significant win outside of Gill Coliseum. Winning on a neutral floor against a good team is uncharted territory.