This group of Oklahoma Sooners may be the best team Lon Kruger has ever had as a college coach. The core has played together for three years and this, the senior seasons for Buddy Hield, Ryan Spangler and Isaiah Cousins, is the one they have been pointing to. Hield is one of the nation's best players and the complementary pieces are there, but can the Sooners put aside the disappointment of not winning the Big 12 regular-season title and three straight underwhelming NCAA tournament finishes to win the national championship?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Wisconsin, vs. Villanova, Iowa State, West Virginia, at Baylor, at West Virginia
Worst losses: at Kansas State, at Texas Tech
Regular season conference finish: 3rd, Big 12
Polls and metrics: The No. 6 AP ranking that the Sooners had at the end of the regular season was their worst since December. The top 10 was also the familiar resting place for Oklahoma in KenPom and BPI.
All-time tourney record: 37-29, four Final Fours
Coach's tourney record: Lon Kruger (16-16, one Final Four)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C Khadeem Lattin (5.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
F Ryan Spangler (10.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG)
G Buddy Hield (25.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
G Isaiah Cousins (13.0 PPG, 4.6 APG)
G Jordan Woodard (12.9 PPG, 3.6 APG)
Key Bench Players
F Dinjiyl Walker (3.7 PPG, 1.7 RPG)
C Dante Buford (3.6 PPG, 2.0 RPG)
G Jamuni McNeace (1.1 PPG, 1.5 RPG)
Biggest strength: Oklahoma has experience, not just in years, but in years together. Part of what makes the offense run so well is that the Sooners know and trust each other. They play with a freedom and confidence that stems from that experience. Hield is generally unflappable and willing to take any big shot.
Biggest weakness: Lattin has disappeared as an offensive entity in the season's final month, making defending the Oklahoma perimeter game a little easier. He isn't a true post player to begin with and neither is Spangler. Winning a championship playing, essentially, four-on-five on the offensive end and with no post threat may be tough even for the scorers that the Sooners have.
Best player: Hield is one of the two or three best in this tournament. The 6-foot-4 senior is confident, fearless and plays with an unrivaled joy. He is the fourth-most efficient offensive player in the country, the fourth-most accurate 3-point shooter, one of the most productive transition scorers, and the second-leading overall scorer in Division I. In any key moment, he is ready, willing and more than able to take the big shot.
X factor: Spangler. The 6-10 senior is the Sooners' best defensive rebounder, which keys the break; their predominant high ball screener, which is a foundational part of the offense; and he's also a 37.5 percent 3-point shooter himself. He does more of the little things than anyone on the team.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Sooners are going to spread the floor and use dribble-drive and high ball screens to open up their perimeter game. Cousins and Woodard feed off Hield's aggressiveness, but don't dribble their way into bad shots. Oklahoma would like to create an up-tempo game. All three guards excel at shooting 3s in rhythm off the break and Hield is an underrated finisher at the rim.
Defensive approach: Krueger has always been a man-to-man coach and doesn't add too many wrinkles. He generally relies on the want-to of his players and this group has generally delivered that effort. At times, Hield will try to play free safety in passing lanes, but, generally, the Sooners take few chances.
How they beat you: First, the Sooners want to get Hield going. When he's in rhythm and drawing attention, the floor opens up. Cousins and Woodard are also good in space and in the transition game. When Oklahoma is right, the offense looks easy. The Sooners have the unusual ability to play that way while at the same time breaking your offensive rhythm possession after possession.
How you beat them: To beat Oklahoma, you have to be quicker to the ball off the glass and play smart, efficient offense to minimize the Sooners' offensive opportunities. Hield will get his points, but by making him a volume shooter and not putting him on the line, opponents can slow Oklahoma's production.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 17th (116.0)
Defensive efficiency, 13th (93.6)
3-point percentage, 2nd (43.0)
3-point percentage D, 108th (33.4)
Free throw rate, 271st (32.9)
Free throw rate D, 21st (27.8)
TO percentage, 138th (17.6)
TO percentage D, 226th (17.3)
Good stat: 27.8 free throw rate D
The Sooners are one of the nation's best defensive teams. Perhaps even more importantly, they play that defense without fouling. Oklahoma makes the opposition earn its offense, which helps offset the Sooners' own problems getting to the line. Even more impressive is that despite limiting opponents free throws, Oklahoma, led by Lattin and Spangler, still ranks 23rd in the country in blocks per game.
Bad stat: 17.3 turnover percentage D
As good as Oklahoma might be at limiting good looks, its defense does a poor job of turning opponents over. The Sooners don't get many easy baskets from their defense with a steal percentage that ranks 289th in the country, despite Hield's propensity to lurk in the passing lanes. They get run outs after stops and defensive rebounds, but the defense does not provide the free points that can be so important in a title run.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: National champions
Oklahoma found a winning formula this season and has a player in Hield who can pave the way to a title. In fact, he carried the Sooners at a number of different points this season. One more six-game stretch wouldn't be hard to imagine. The Sooners have experience, can get offense from more spots than just Hield, and can get big stops in key moments.
Worst-case scenario: Sweet 16 exit
The small cracks that began to show in the final month of the regular season in losses to Texas Tech, Texas and Kansas State could expose the Sooners in tournament play as well. They don't get any offense from their center spot and may have become too jump-shot reliant. In a game against a physical team when the shots of Cousins, Woodard and Hield aren't falling as readily as they did in January, Oklahoma could be vulnerable to an upset.