Wes Washpun's buzzer beater, courtesy of a friendly back-rim bounce, gave the Northern Iowa Panthers a 56-54 win over Evansville in the Arch Madness' cut-down-the-nets game. The MVC title game served as a microcosm of the Panthers' season, as UNI sprinted out to a 14-point halftime lead, endured a major second-half lull and then made enough plays down the stretch to earn a second straight trip to the NCAAs. The Panthers collected two impressive nonconference scalps against North Carolina and Iowa State, then lost eight of 11 games before catching fire late in the season (12-1 in their final 13 games entering the Big Dance). Can the Panthers work some more March magic?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: North Carolina, Iowa State, Wichita State (twice), Stephen F. Austin
Worst losses: Colorado State, Missouri State, Illinois-Chicago (twice)
Regular-season conference finish: Fourth in the Missouri Valley Conference
Polls and metrics: Northern Iowa's late-season simmer has it up to 75 in the RPI and 98 in the BPI.
All-time tourney record: 4-7, one Sweet 16
Coach's tourney record: Ben Jacobson is 3-3 with one Sweet 16 appearance.
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Bennett Koch (7.7 PPG, 3.6 RPG)
G/F Paul Jesperson (10.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
G Jeremy Morgan (10.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
G Matt Bohannon (11.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
G Wes Washpun (14.3 PPG, 5.2 APG)
Key bench players
F Klint Carlson (6.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG)
G Wyatt Lohaus (4.1 PPG, 1.4 RPG)
F/C Ted Friedman (0.9 PPG, 1.3 RPG)
Biggest strength: In Washpun, Northern Iowa has a quick-as-a-hiccup point guard who led the Panthers in scoring and assists. The lefty floor general owns a killer crossover and elevator ups and often employs both during his late-in-the-shot-clock attacks.
Biggest weakness: The Panthers sport a smallish rotation, so they can get bludgeoned on the boards at times. They are dead last in Division I ball in offensive rebound percentage (17.8 percent).
Best player: Washpun. Thanks to last week's MVC title game heroics, Washpun became a Twitterverse sensation. The Panthers play at a deliberate pace, and Washpun is the offensive maestro. He effectively reads high-ball screens, gets into the teeth of the defense and either scores himself or distributes to others. Like last year's UNI star, Seth Tuttle, Washpun seems ticketed for a play-for-pay gig in Europe.
X factor: Washpun is the lead singer, but the rest of the Northern Iowa band is pretty good too. Northern Iowa is one of just seven teams in the country that has deployed the same starting five in every game this season, and four of those five are double-figure scorers (Washpun, Bohannon, Jesperson and Morgan).
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Panthers are the antithesis of today's "instant" society in which we expect everything right this instant. They milk the shot clock, whip the ball around on every possession and patiently probe the defense for a high-quality shot. When the shot clock whittles down, they put the ball in Washpun's capable hands and set him a screen, and generally, good things happen.
Defensive approach: Coach Jacobson's team plays tight man-to-man D without fouling. Their never-in-a-hurry offensive pace keeps scoring down too. The Panthers start four guards and one forward, so their rebounding and shot swatting totals are spotty. But they defend well, and Morgan and Washpun are both passing-lane pests who register steals.
How they beat you: The Panthers treat the ball like it's their firstborn child. They rarely turn it over. They have a tough-to-rattle point guard in Washpun, who is able to strike a healthy balance between scoring himself and kicking the ball out to UNI's phalanx of deadeye shooters.
How you beat them: Missouri Valley squads attempt to speed the Panthers up by applying some full-court or three-quarter-court pressure. But in order to best this team, you've got a pretty lengthy to-do list: Keep Washpun somewhat under control, tenaciously defend the 3-point arc, and resign yourself to the fact that points are going to be hard to come by.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency: 136th (105.6)
Defensive efficiency: 49th (97.0)
3-point percentage: 59th (37.2)
3-point percentage D: 68th (32.6)
Free throw rate: 274th (32.8)
Free throw rate D: 1st (23.6)
TO percentage: 17th (15.2)
TO percentage D: 142nd (18.7)
Good stat: 23.6% free throw defense
Northern Iowa has the lowest FTA/FGA ratio in the nation, which means they foul less than any other college hoops team. This underrated ability to effectively defend without fouling is one of the biggest reasons Northern Iowa is still playing, while most of its Missouri Valley brethren have packed away their jerseys.
Bad stat: 32.8% free throw rate
The Panthers start four guards, so their offense is jump shot-oriented, and that results in lots of trifecta tries by Bohannon (.408), Morgan (.400) and undersized 4-man Jesperson (.391). Therefore, trips to the charity stripe aren't as frequent.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
With a gifted point man in Washpun, combined with 3-point snipers aplenty, airtight defense and low turnovers per game, Northern Iowa has the ingredients to win a game or two in this tournament -- just like UNI did back in 2010. These Panthers have teeth. They've beaten North Carolina, Iowa State and Wichita State (twice), and they enter the NCAAs on a hot streak.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
Points can be hard to come by for the Panthers. If they experience a serious scoring drought -- like they did in the second half of the 2016 MVC title game against Evansville -- their NCAA stay could be brief.