The 2016 ACC regular-season and tournament champion North Carolina Tar Heels are one of the nation's truly elite teams. All five starters average in double figures, the team's transition game is a sight to behold, they look like an NBA team when they get off the bus with two 6-foot-10 starters (All-American forward Brice Johnson and vastly improved Kennedy Meeks), and they have plenty of size off the pine. The only question mark: Can Roy Williams's often-wayward perimeter shooters drain enough shots from behind the 3-point line for this team to realize its Final Four potential?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Maryland, UCLA, Syracuse (twice), Miami, at Duke
Worst losses: at Northern Iowa
Regular-season conference finish: First, ACC
Polls and metrics: Name a metric and the Heels are near the top of it: BPI (No. 1) , RPI (No. 8), and AP and coaches polls (No. 7).
All-time tourney record: 112-44, five national titles
Coach's tourney record: Roy Williams (65-23, seven Final Fours, two national titles)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through March 6 games.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Kennedy Meeks (10 PPG, 6.3 RPG)
F Brice Johnson (16.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG)
F Justin Jackson (12.3 PPG, 3.1 APG)
G Marcus Paige (12 PPG, 3.7 APG)
G Joel Berry II (12.3 PPG, 3.6 APG)
Key bench players
F Theo Pinson (4.9 PPG, 3.0 APG)
F Isaiah Hicks (9.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
G Nate Britt (5.9 PPG, 2.1 APG)
Biggest strength: North Carolina features one of the country's most prolific and well-balanced offenses. The Heels are 10th in the nation in scoring offense (82.9 ppg) and all five starters average in double figures. Coach Williams' teams continue to push the ball up the court and the Heels' vaunted transition game features a deadly secondary break.
Biggest weakness: The Tar Heels struggle mightily to make 3-pointers (31 percent). North Carolina would actually make history if the Tar Heels are able to win the national title despite their woeful 3-point aim. The previous low 3-point season-long shooting percentage for a national champion is UConn's 32.9 percent in 2011.
Best player: Johnson has averaged a double-double this season. He's a terror on the offensive glass and on the low block. His turnaround jumper is pretty much unstoppable.
X factor: Paige. He's had a disappointing senior year, struggling all year with his shot. But Paige has tons of big-game experience and the Heels will need him to help lead if a national title is to be in the cards.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: North Carolina pushes the ball up court quickly, even after opponents' made baskets. If the fast break isn't there, then the Heels spread the wealth on offense with five starters in double figures and the first big man off the bench (6-9 junior Hicks) averaging just a whisker under 10 points per game as well.
Defensive approach: The Tar Heels' primary defense of choice is man-to-man, but they will mix in the old Dean Smith "run and jump" scrambling defense and some other trapping defenses, too. The ultimate goal is to make opponents go faster than they'd like. Meeks has worked hard to transform his body, but ACC teams have had success this year making Meeks defend in ball-screen situations.
How they beat you: Situated in the heart of NASCAR country, North Carolina subscribes to a pedal-to-the-metal approach on offense. The Heels' go-go style and willingness to share the ball results in easy baskets and high-scoring affairs.
How you beat them: Opposing teams need to limit UNC's transition game, pack in the defense and force their guards to beat you with jump shots.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through March 6 games.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, fifth (119.6)
Defensive efficiency, 29th (95.6)
3-point percentage, 311th (31.0)
3-point percentage D, 259th (36.3)
Free throw rate, 280th (32.5)
Free throw rate D, 47th (30.0)
TO percentage, 21st (15.4)
TO percentage D, 160th (18.5)
Good stat: 119.5 offensive efficiency rating
The Tar Heels are one of country's most efficient and potent offensive teams. Both Berry and Paige are point guards by trade, so this team willingly shares the ball. Johnson is one of the nation's best bigs, and if Jackson plays well, then foes are unable to clog the lane in an effort to stop Johnson.
Bad stat: 31.0 3-point percentage
We hate to beat a dead horse, but UNC's inability to make outside shots played a major role in its ACC losses to Notre Dame, Duke and Louisville. In those losses, Carolina shot a combined 24 percent from behind the arc.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: National champion
The Tar Heels have a living legend coaching them in Williams, who is seeking his third national title. North Carolina has the firepower to be the last team standing in this 68-team bracket, but it will need to make some outside shots and probably will need to grind out a nail-biter or two along the way.
Worst-case scenario: Sweet 16 exit
North Carolina's first two NCAA games are likely to be in the nearby PNC Arena in Raleigh, where Williams is 12-2 all-time, so a loss in either one of those games would be a monumental upset. Of the half-dozen teams to beat UNC during the regular season, five are in the NCAA field (Northern Iowa, Texas, Notre Dame, Duke and Virginia) and one would have been if not for a self-imposed ban (Louisville) -- and Carolina most likely won't see a team of that ilk until the Sweet 16.