When the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders were sitting at 8-5 on Jan. 5, they probably didn't see the NCAA tournament in their future. They had just lost to UAB, the favorites in Conference USA. But they responded with a six-game winning streak and finished the regular season at 21-9. The Blue Raiders won the Conference USA tournament in Birmingham, UAB's hometown, and earned the league's automatic bid to the Big Dance. Do they end their season on that high note or add an exclamation point with some more March magic?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: UNC Asheville, at Old Dominion, Auburn
Worst losses: at Georgia State, Western Kentucky
Regular season conference finish: 2nd, Conference USA
Polls and metrics: Middle Tennessee has earned the 89th best RPI in America, thanks to their 47th ranked nonconference strength of schedule.
All-time tourney record: 2-7
Coach's tourney record: Kermit Davis Jr. (0-3 in 3 NCAA tournament appearances)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Darnell Harris (11.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
F Reggie Upshaw (14.0 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.5 SPG)
F Perrin Buford (12.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.1 BPG)
G Jaqawn Raymond (4.9 PPG, 1.8 APG)
G Giddy Potts (14.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.1 SPG)
Key Bench Players
G Quavius Copeland (4.9 PPG, 1.9 APG)
G Aldonis Foote (2.7 PPG, 1.9 RPG)
F Xavier Habersham (3.4 PPG, 1.6 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Blue Raiders are in the midst of a red-hot shooting season. They have knocked down 38.9 percent of their 3-point attempts, good for 18th best in the nation. Six of Middle Tennessee's rotation players make long balls at better than the national average of 34.7 percent. Opponents have to chase the Blue Raiders off the line or face a barrage of made 3-pointers.
Biggest weakness: Middle Tennessee's free throw shooting is a problem. The Blue Raiders only make 60.5 percent of their foul shots, third worst in all of Division I. They miss an average of eight free throws per contest, which can easily be the difference between winning and losing.
Best player: Upshaw has had an effective junior season for Middle Tennessee. He has amassed nine double-doubles this season and has led the Blue Raiders in rebounding and assists, kicking the ball to open teammates as he slashes and posts up. His 21-point, 13-rebound performance against Auburn in December was a perfect example of what he can do.
X factor: Potts has a jump shot that can make him a household name this March (and being named Giddy certainly helps too). He has made 49.3 percent of his attempts from outside the arc this season, stroking more than three made 3s per game. In a tilt at Charlotte in January, he was on fire, making seven of eight deep balls. If he has a game like that in the NCAA tournament, he could bust a lot of brackets.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: With such good outside shooting, Davis looks to get the ball in the hands of his best shooters coming off of screens and in the motion of the offense. Despite having the size to compete on the boards and on defense, Upshaw and Harris are both capable of stepping out beyond the arc to shoot jump shots and pull defenders out of the paint.
Defensive approach:The Blue Raiders throw a variety of defenses at their opponents to keep them on their toes. Thanks to the versatility of their forwards, they can shrink or expand their defense in all sorts of ways. Just in the second half of the Conference USA championship, they attacked Old Dominion with man-to-man, a 1-3-1 trap and some 2-3 zone.
How they beat you: Middle Tennessee will gladly outshoot you with its litany of 3-point assassins, but it can also get stops on the other end. The Blue Raiders forced the highest rate of turnovers and steals in Conference USA play, and they led the conference in defensive rebounding rate. They get the most out of their possessions and coerce opponents into squandering theirs.
How you beat them: When shots aren't falling from outside, Middle Tennessee has some trouble finding points inside the arc or at the free throw line. A total of 33.2 percent of the Blue Raiders' points come from beyond the 3-point arc. They finished 11th of 14 Conference USA teams in 2-point shooting percentage and dead last in the conference in free throw shooting.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 196th (102.4)
Defensive efficiency, 104th (100.5)
3-point percentage, 20th (39.0)
3-point percentage D, 166th (34.6)
Free throw rate, 245th (34.2)
Free throw rate D, 323rd (45.0)
TO percentage, 88th (16.9)
TO percentage D, 92nd (19.3)
Good stat: 25.0 offensive rebound rate allowed
Teams that play zone or switch defenses often can have problems boxing out and protecting the glass. Not this Middle Tennessee team. They grabbed the largest rate of defensive rebounds in Conference USA and a top-25 rate in all of Division I. Holding teams to one-and-done on the defensive end is a great skill to have in your arsenal in the NCAA tournament.
Bad stat: 45.0 defensive free throw rate
Getting stops, however, can be much more difficult when sending opponents to the free throw stripe. Middle Tennessee has had trouble avoiding fouls on defense, sending their foes to the line at a top-50 national rate. The Blue Raiders have been lucky that Conference USA collectively shoots the 10th-worst free throw percentage of the 32 conferences nationwide. In the tournament, better shooting teams would make them pay.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: An upset win for the Blue Raiders
Middle Tennessee has not won a game in the NCAA tournament in more than 25 years. This season, it has the athletes to compete with a top program and the hot shooting to propel it to a victory. The Blue Raiders have yet to beat a top-50 team all season, but they certainly have the tools to do so.
Worst-case scenario: A blowout opening loss
Middle Tennessee's run through the Conference USA tournament has proven what it is capable of in March, yet some of the Blue Raiders' negatives, like poor free throw shooting and two missing injured rotation players, could leave an opening for them to be sent home convincingly.