Few coaches know the ins and outs of March Madness quite like Tom Izzo. His record speaks for itself, with seven Final Fours in an 18-year span. But in that stretch, his Michigan State Spartans have cut the nets down only once, 16 years ago, when the "Flintstones" were playing in East Lansing. This year, Izzo leads one of his best teams ever, again led by a host of Michigan natives. Bryn Forbes, Matt Costello and Wooden Award candidate Denzel Valentine are poised to make the most of their senior season and improve upon the Final Four run the Spartans made last March. Is this the year Sparty -- fresh off a Big Ten tourney title -- breaks through and wins it all again?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Kansas, Providence, Louisville, Florida, Maryland, at Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin
Worst losses: Nebraska
Regular season conference finish: 2nd, Big Ten
Polls and metrics: The Spartans spent all of December as the No. 1 team in the AP Poll. Since then, they dropped as low as 12th, before rising back to No. 2. Michigan State has also been among the nation's best in the computer metrics, ranking 14th in RPI, fourth in BPI, and third in KenPom.
All-time tourney record: 63-28 (9 Final Fours, 2 championships in 29 appearances)
Coach's tourney record: Tom Izzo (46-17, 7 Final Fours, 1 championship in 18 NCAA tournament appearances)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Matt Costello (10.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG)
F Deyonta Davis (7.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.9 BPG)
G Denzel Valentine (19.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 7.5 APG)
G Eron Harris (9.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG)
G Bryn Forbes (15.1 PPG, 2.2 RPG)
Key Bench Players
G Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn (3.0 PPG, 3.6 APG)
F Matt McQuaid (3.7 PPG, 1.8 APG)
F Gavin Schilling (3.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
F Javon Bess (3.2 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
F Kenny Goins (2.1 PPG, 3.0 RPG)
Biggest strength: Michigan State can flat-out shoot the ball. Four of the Spartans in Coach Izzo's regular rotation shoot better than 40 percent beyond the arc, led by Forbes at 50.5 percent and Valentine at 45.4 percent. On a per game basis, that duo is making a combined seven 3-pointers. As a team, Michigan State knocks down 43.9 percent of its attempts from beyond the arc, the highest such rate in the nation.
Biggest weakness: The Spartans' defense has been solid enough to support their incredibly efficient offense, but has largely been without much pop this season. Only six teams in all of Division I have forced turnovers at a lower rate than Michigan State. Without the ability to force turnovers, and the points created off of them, the Spartans place undue pressure on their offense.
Best player: Valentine has had a special senior season, doing absolutely everything imaginable on the court. He leads the Big Ten in a seemingly never-ending list of statistics and analytical measurements: points per game, assists per game, assist rate, win shares, box plus/minus. He leads the nation in offensive rating among players using more than 28 percent of their team's possessions. Quite simply, few have played better than Valentine and almost none have made the players around them better.
X factor: Costello is the dictionary definition of "glue guy." He does all of the dirty work for this Spartan team, with a smile on his face. He grabs offensive rebounds at the sixth-highest rate in America, while leading the Big Ten in total rebounds and defensive rating. In the NCAA tournament, every team wishes they had a senior like him.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Spartans' offense is a thing of beauty. They lead the nation in offensive efficiency, 3-point shooting percentage and assist rate. Everything Michigan State does at the offensive end of the floor is about finding the best shot possible, in many cases that creates an open 3. Extra passes, ball movement and unselfishness make the Spartan offense run like clockwork.
Defensive approach: Michigan State plays a very conservative brand of man-to-man defense. The Spartans have held opponents to only 37.7 percent shooting from the field, second-lowest in the nation, while at the same time forcing the sixth-fewest turnovers. It's fairly amazing that MSU opponents are not turning the ball over, yet unable to find open shots. The Spartans keep the ball in front of them and challenge opponents to make contested shots over their defense.
How they beat you: Sparty's path to success relies on its ability to find the right shots on the offensive end, and Izzo has a wealth of offensive weapons at his disposal. Valentine creates scoring opportunities for himself and others. Harris has been an accomplished scorer, both this season and while he was at West Virginia. Forbes has shot the lights out, while Costello, Davis and the other big men are consistent in the paint and on the glass. When the Spartans execute their offensive game plan, and combine it with their toughness on defense, they are difficult to beat.
How you beat them: Conversely, if you can throw a wrench into Izzo's offense, Michigan State is susceptible to scoring droughts and cold streaks. The Spartan attack is built around sharing the ball and finding open 3-pointers. Teams who have beaten Michigan State have looked to cut off passing lanes and make each Spartan try to beat you individually. Valentine is a great player, but is at his best when he is sharing and creating. If Valentine's passing and penetrating can be neutralized by elite defense, the rest of the Spartans struggle to create offense.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 1st (122.0)
Defensive efficiency, 28th (956)
3-point percentage, 1st (43.9)
3-point percentage D, 14th (30.6)
Free throw rate, 318th (30.8)
Free throw rate D, 111th (34.2)
TO percentage, 131st (17.6)
TO percentage D, 345th (14.3)
Good stat: 41.7% bench minutes (10th most in Division I)
Michigan State has a variety of eye-opening stats on the offensive end of the floor, highlighted by the trifecta of leading the nation in offensive efficiency, assist rate, and 3-point percentage. Those three stats are interconnected and each helps improve upon the other two, but it's the Spartans depth that makes all of their successes even more impressive. Izzo goes 10 deep into his bench and sees very little drop off. In the tournament, fatigue and foul trouble often bite teams that are upset early, neither of which will trouble Sparty.
Bad stat: 6.6% steal rate
Despite holding opponents to such low shooting percentages, the Spartans rank 322nd in steal rate, almost never forcing live-ball turnovers. Their offense is usually efficient enough to make up for the loss of transition baskets, but the lack of pressure could allow opponents to feel more comfortable in their offensive sets.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: National Champions.
The Spartans possess so many of the ingredients in the recipe for tournament success. Izzo is one of the nation's best head coaches, Valentine is a surefire All-American, and the other nine guys in the deep rotation know their roles and execute them to perfection. This Michigan State team is fully capable of collecting its first championship in 16 years, and the Big Ten's first title since that Spartan run in 2000.
Worst-case scenario: An upset in the Sweet 16.
In this year of chaos and parity, the bracket is loaded with talented teams who dropped a seed line or two thanks to bad losses late in the season. Michigan State appears to be one of the most bulletproof Final Four hopefuls, but a cold shooting streak against a talented team that gets hot on the right night could send the Spartans home earlier than they planned.