Coming into the 2015-16 season, expectations for the Michigan Wolverines were rooted in Caris LeVert's return from a broken foot. LeVert, if healthy, figured to be an All-Big Ten talent and the Wolverines looked like a Big Ten contender. Unfortunately, LeVert effectively made it through just one Big Ten game, and after attempting to return, was shut down for the season. Without LeVert, Michigan faltered, losing four of its last five regular-season games. But a massive upset of Indiana in the Big Ten tournament earned Michigan its ticket to the Big Dance. Can it make the most of the invitation?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Texas, Maryland, Purdue, Indiana
Worst losses: at Ohio State
Regular-season conference finish: Eighth, Big Ten
Polls and metrics: Michigan fell out of the top 50 in the RPI, BPI and KenPom toward the latter half of conference play.
All-time tourney record: 51-24, one national title, seven Final Fours
Coach's tourney record: John Beilein (16-9, one Final Four)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through March 6 games.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Mark Donnal (8.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG)
G/F Duncan Robinson (11.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
G/F Zak Irvin (11.3 PPG, 3.1 APG)
G Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (7.6 PPG, 1.7 APG)
G Derrick Walton Jr. (12.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG)
Key Bench Players
G Aubrey Dawkins (7.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG)
C Ricky Doyle (4.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG)
F Kameron Chatman (2.8 PPG, 1.4 RPG)
Biggest strength: As Indiana coach Tom Crean said after the recent loss to the Wolverines, "they don't put a player on the court who can't shoot 3s." Michigan's deep stable of shooters is difficult for opponents to cope with, both because they can hurt you from beyond the arc and because their mere presence must be accounted for. The adjustments defenses make open up space inside the arc as well, and Beilein, a great X's and O's coach, puts his players in position to use it.
Biggest weakness: Interior defense. Michigan essentially plays a four-guard lineup. Many of the benefits come on the offensive end. The downside is the Wolverines lack a rim-protector, and thus allow opponents to shoot 64 percent within five feet of the rim. Even their big men are undersized and can have trouble with bigger centers.
Best player: The Wolverines don't have a true star, but junior point guard Walton is the most influential of the bunch. His stocky, muscular 6-foot-1 frame allows him to get into the legs of opposing point guards on both ends of the floor. And although Michigan's offense doesn't always need him to, Walton can blow by slower defenders off the dribble. Remarkably, he's also the team's leading rebounder despite being its shortest player.
X factor: Robinson. To be fair to Robinson, he's probably more than an X factor. He's the team's most efficient offensive player and its best 3-point shooter. The reason he's an X factor is the rest of his game. The transfer from Division III Williams College has shown flashes of being a complete player, one who can attack the basket off the dribble, cut hard and rebound. Flashes are all they've been, though. It would behoove Michigan to get Robinson rolling as more than just a long-range threat.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Beilein's offensive system features an intricate assortment of cuts and screens. The movements are all very calculated and precise, but none are predictable. The Wolverines often use opponents' aggressiveness against them and get easy buckets via backdoor cuts. This year's team incorporates a heavy dose of pick-and-roll, too. Four of five starters are comfortable coming off ball screens.
Defensive approach: Michigan isn't a great defensive team, but its calling card is its flexibility. Beilein will often start his team off in man, but has multiple zones in his repertoire, including a 1-3-1.
How they beat you: They outsmart you on offense, spreading the floor and forcing defenders to make split-second decisions on whether or not to help off shooters. When Michigan is clicking, oftentimes neither decision is the correct one, and the Wolverines win with offense.
How you beat them: Play honest defense. Refrain from overplaying passing lanes, but close out hard on shooters. You must force the Wolverines to beat you individually rather than schematically. On offense, you must make Michigan pay for sacrificing height and girth down low in favor of offensive skill. Whether it's by feeding the post or by driving and dishing, the ball has to find your big men.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through March 6 games.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 28th (113.5)
Defensive efficiency, 132nd (101.5)
3-point percentage, 18th (39.1)
3-point percentage D, 177th (34.7)
Free throw rate, 340th (28.5)
Free throw rate D, 13th (26.6)
TO percentage, 12th (14.8)
TO percentage D, 202nd (17.8)
Good stat: 14.8 turnover percentage
One reason the Wolverines maintain such an efficient offense is their care for the ball. Walton, despite commanding the rock more than anyone else on the team, has good assist-to-turnover numbers. So does secondary ball handler Abdur-Rahkman.
Bad stat: 28.5 free throw rate
The very best offensive teams can compensate for poor 3-point shooting performances by getting to the free throw line. Michigan doesn't do that. So when the Wolverines go 8-for-34 from deep against Iowa, they have no shot to win. Against the Hawkeyes, they only attempted 12 foul shots. In a loss to Wisconsin, when it was the 2s that weren't falling, Michigan only attempted seven free throws.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
As it exhibited in the upset of Indiana, Michigan can beat teams that have more talent. The issue with projecting a deeper run is that Michigan has a few glaring flaws, and sooner or later it will run into a team that can expose them.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
The Big Ten tournament escapade might have been more a fluke than anything else, and if Michigan's offense stumbles, the Wolverines could be sent packing before they even find their footing.