<
>

Bracket Projection: Miami

The Miami Hurricanes -- known to some as "the U" -- is more of a hoops power than a gridiron giant these days. The Canes have thrived under the leadership of Jim Larranaga, an analytics-driven guy (heck, he majored in economics at Providence College) who has used metrics and X's and O's acumen to build a team that successfully battles the ACC blue bloods. The Canes have been a top-25 fixture all season and possess the necessary attributes to be a tough out in the Big Dance. Can this experienced bunch continue to build their hardwood legacy at this football-crazy school with a trip to the Final Four?

ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.


TOURNEY PROFILE

Best wins: Utah, Butler, Florida, Duke, Notre Dame (twice), Virginia

Worst losses: Northeastern, at Clemson, at N.C. State, at Virginia Tech

Regular season conference finish: 2nd, ACC

Polls and metrics: The Hurricanes sport impressive numbers, ranking 11th in the national polls and No. 15 in the BPI.

All-time tourney record: 6-7

Coach's tourney record: Jim Larranaga (7-6, one Final Four)

Bracketology chart | BPI information


PERSONNEL

(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)

STARTING LINEUP

C Tonye Jekiri (8.1 PPG, 9.1 RPG)
F Kamari Murphy (5.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG)
G/F Davon Reed (11.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG)
G Sheldon McClellan (15.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
G Angel Rodriguez (11.6 PPG, 4.3 APG)

Key Bench Players

G Ja'Quan Newton (10.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
F Ivan Cruz Uceda (5.7 PPG, 2.8 RPG)
F Anthony Lawrence Jr. (4.3 PPG, 1.9 RPG)

Biggest strength: The Hurricanes have one of the finest coaches in Larranaga and floor generals in point guard Rodriguez in the college game. Miami's offense features four double-figure-scoring perimeter players in seniors McClellan and Rodriguez, versatile junior wing Reed and explosive sophomore sixth man Newton.

Biggest weakness: The Hurricanes can be a streaky shooting bunch, as their guards are more slashing scorers than knockdown shooters. So a team with a well-synchronized zone defense can cause the Canes some issues.

Best players: The backcourt of Rodriguez and McClellan is top-shelf. Ironically, the pair started out as rivals at Big 12 schools Kansas State (Rodriguez) and Texas (McClellan) before both transferred to "the U." Rodriguez is the on-court leader, while McClellan is one of the most efficient scoring guards in the college game.

X factor: Jekiri. The 7-foot Nigerian has only been playing hoops since he was 16, but he's a big-time rim protector and rebounder. Miami's guards can gamble a bit on defense, knowing they have a human eraser behind them in Jekiri.


SCOUTING REPORT

Offensive approach: It's been widely documented that Larranaga is Billy Beane-like in his approach to college hoops, using metrics to build his program. He preaches rotating the ball and controlling the pace with his seasoned guards, and he wants his team to take no more than 15 to 20 3-pointers in a game in order to limit long rebounds and opponents' fast breaks. This KenPom-in-palm-tree-land approach works because Miami's four primary guards (McClellan, Rodriguez, Reed and Newton) can all score.

Defensive approach: Larranaga, the 2016 ACC Coach of the Year, uses analytics and years of coaching experience to develop a specific defensive template for his team. This year, he has his team playing man-to-man defense 80 percent of the time and zone 20 percent. Next year, the percentages will change. But Larranaga also adjusts well in the heat of the action. During each timeout, a Miami assistant tells Larranaga how many points per possession the Canes are yielding in each defense, and Miami's mad scientist adjusts accordingly. The Hurricanes also mix in a disruptive "scramble" defense -- a man-to-man scheme with trapping options that forces turnovers and rushed shots.

How they beat you: In addition to Larranaga's meticulous preparation, the Hurricanes are an older team, and these veterans willingly do the dirty work needed to be successful. Reed can play all of the perimeter spots. Like McClellan and Rodriguez, Murphy is yet another Big 12 transfer (he started out at Oklahoma State) and brings in-the-paint toughness and boundless energy to the party. Miami's players know their roles and play them well.

How you beat them: Miami can experience scoring droughts. So a team with quality size up front and the ability to play an active zone defense could be a tough matchup for them.


WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY

(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)

NATIONAL RANKS

Offensive efficiency, 13th (117.0)
Defensive efficiency, 44th (96.6)
3-point percentage, 107th (36.1)
3-point percentage D, 131st (33.7)
Free throw rate, 105th (39.3)
Free throw rate D, 18th (27.2)
TO percentage, 32nd (15.8)
TO percentage D, 217th (17.5)

Good stat: 117.0 offensive efficiency rating
The Hurricanes have one of the country's most efficient offensive attacks. Top scorer McClellan was rated the second-most efficient offensive player in the nation, according to KenPom.com. Point guard Rodriguez is shooting less often but more accurately this season. Newton and Reed can create their own shots off the dribble. And the big men take high-percentage shots or take a seat on the bench.

Bad stat: 17.5 TO percentage defense
Larranaga's squad doesn't turn teams over very much. Instead, they play man-to-man D most of the time, relying on their athleticism and length on the wings and in the frontcourt to contest shots. The approach works, as Miami's overall defensive efficiency rating is 96.0, 44th best in the land.


HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?

Best-case scenario: Elite Eight
The Hurricanes have experienced, savvy guards and a proven X's and O's man in Larranaga, who took George Mason to a Final Four a decade ago. Miami has the talent and tenacity to make a deep run.

Worst-case scenario: Round of 32 exit
Miami will be a heavy favorite in its first-round game, but the level of competition picks up considerably from there. The Canes will be favored in their second round game too, but they rely heavily on perimeter pop, so one bad shooting day by McClellan, Rodriguez, Reed and Newton is all it would take to snuff out the Canes' championship dreams.