With a cupboard full of talent and a fusion of youth and experience, the Maryland Terrapins looked like prime national title contenders for the first three months of the 2015-16 season. They entered mid-February 22-3 and ranked No. 2 in the country. But then something went awry. The Terrapins lost four of their last six and limped into postseason play. Can they rediscover their early-season form when it matters most?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue
Worst losses: at Minnesota
Regular-season conference finish: T-3rd, Big Ten
Polls and metrics: After spending much of the season in every relevant top 10, the Terrapins slipped to No. 24 in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, 22 in the BPI, and 18 in the final AP poll of the regular season.
All-time tourney record: 39-24, one national title, two Final Fours
Coach's tourney record: Mark Turgeon (6-6)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C Diamond Stone (12.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG)
F Robert Carter (12.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG)
F Jake Layman (10.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG)
G Rasheed Sulaimon (11.2 PPG, 3.5 APG)
G Melo Trimble (14.4 PPG, 5.1 APG)
Key Bench Players
G Jared Nickens (5.3 PPG, 2.1 RPG)
C Damonte Dodd (3.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG)
C Michal Cekovsky (2.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG)
Biggest strength: When it comes to pure basketball talent, Maryland's starting five compares favorably to any in the country. Sulaimon is quick and aggressive. Layman is smooth, long and strong. Carter can do just about anything that's asked of him. And there's a reason Stone could be a lottery pick in the 2016 NBA draft.
Biggest weakness: Backcourt depth is a glaring issue. Backup shooting guard Nickens has regressed as a sophomore, especially against strong opposition. The supposed sharpshooter has made just 26.1 percent of his 3-point attempts in conference play, and 19 percent against the top 12 teams on Maryland's schedule. Freshman point guard Jaylen Brantley has seen more minutes of late, but isn't yet a strong option. Trimble, despite his struggles, will have to continue to play 35-plus minutes per game.
Best player: Stone is Maryland's best pro prospect, but if the Terrapins are to make a run, they need Trimble to be their catalyst and figurehead. When he's on, Trimble is an outstanding passer and one of the top pick-and-roll ball handlers in college basketball. But his days have been few and far between lately. His shooting has dipped -- 27-of-90 from the field in his last seven Big Ten regular-season games -- and it has dragged his overall game down with it. Maryland needs a rejuvenated Trimble if it is to make noise in the tournament's second weekend.
X factor: Sulaimon. At his best, the Duke transfer is a defensive stopper and a streaky shooter who can spur quick double-digit runs. His swagger can also become infectious. But at his worst, Sulaimon takes ill-advised shots, turns the ball over and becomes indecisive, causing the Terrapins' offense to stagnate. His frustration often seems to seep into his teammates as well. Which Sulaimon will show up in the NCAA tournament? It's really anybody's guess.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Terrapins' offense frankly isn't as good as it should be. Turgeon has a tendency to overcoach at times, dampening the inherent talent advantages his players provide. Then, when the offense slows, it often resorts to a high ball screen for Trimble -- not the worst thing in the world, but not ideal. Maryland is most effective, however, when it consistently gets Stone the ball within 10 or 12 feet of the rim.
Defensive approach: Although it will occasionally mix in a zone, Maryland uses its length to play a stifling man-to-man. Trimble is an average defender at the point, at times unable to stay in front of quicker guards. But the Terrapins' frontcourt size compensates for any deficiencies on the perimeter. Stone, Carter and reserve bigs Dodd and Cekovsky are all rim-protectors, and even Layman blocks his fair share of shots. The Terps rank in the top 10 in the country in block percentage.
How they beat you: Maryland wins with defense. In its three most impressive victories (at Wisconsin, Iowa and Purdue) it held opponents to 15-of-70 shooting from 3-point range. All three teams scored less than a point per possession. And even though the Terps don't force many turnovers, they have the ability to turn defense into offense. When they do, they're difficult to outclass.
How to beat them: On defense, force Sulaimon to be the playmaker. If you contain Trimble in pick-and-roll situations, and force him to either take contested shots or defer, Maryland won't be at full strength. On offense, you crash the boards. Maryland's rebounding woes are remarkable. In a recent loss to Purdue, the Boilermakers pulled down 59.4 percent of their own missed shots. It's on the glass that you can recoup the points that Maryland's first-shot defense takes away.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through March 6 games.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 33rd (112.5)
Defensive efficiency, 20th (95.2)
3-point percentage, 68th (36.9)
3-point percentage D, 44th (31.8)
Free throw rate, 208th (35.4)
Free throw rate D, 16th (27.1)
TO percentage, 258th (19.4)
TO percentage D, 274th (16.5)
Good stat: 55.7 2-point field goal percentage
This is where Maryland's height is most influential on the offensive end. The Terrapins convert on 67 percent of their shots within five feet of the rim, in large part due to Layman (76 percent), Carter (70 percent) and Stone (67 percent).
Bad stat: 30.1 offensive rebounding percentage, 70.7 defensive rebounding percentage
The fact that Maryland isn't a top-150 rebounding team on either end of the floor is puzzling. Okay, it's more than puzzling. It's astounding. The shot-blocking tendencies, especially that of Stone, might exacerbate the defensive rebounding numbers. But with an average team height that ranks fourth nationally, and five of nine rotation players standing 6-foot-9 or taller, the issues on the glass are inexcusable.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Final Four
There's a theory that schemes can win November through February, but individual players carry teams in March. If that's the case, don't look past Maryland. All five starters can win their individual battles on any given day. That alone makes the Terps dangerous.
Worst-case scenario: First-round shocker
Stone's presence would seem to make Maryland relatively impervious to a plucky mid-major, but it's not out of the question. Everything beyond the first round, though, is certainly within the danger zone.