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Bracket Projection: Kentucky

The Kentucky Wildcats have been to four of past five Final Fours. Each year, five-star teen hoops prodigies head to Lexington to John Calipari's Finishing School for High-Flying Youngsters. And Calipari molds these young stars into a team. This year's model features one of the nation's top backcourts in 5-foot-9 sophomore scoring point guard Tyler Ulis and 6-foot-4 freshman phenom Jamal Murray -- both probable 2016 first-round NBA draft choices -- and a bevy of frontcourt options, most with NBA futures themselves. After taking the SEC tourney title, will this year's edition of the Wildcats deliver Coach Cal his long-awaited second national title?

ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.


TOURNEY PROFILE

Best wins: Duke, Louisville, Vanderbilt

Worst losses: at Auburn, at Tennessee

Regular season conference finish: tied-1st, SEC

Polls and metrics: The Wildcats climbed to No. 16 in the AP and coaches polls at the end of the regular season and sat at 14 in the BPI and 13 in the RPI.

All-time tourney record: 122-49, eight national titles

Coach's tourney record: John Calipari (47-15, six Final Fours, one national title)

Bracketology chart | BPI information


PERSONNEL

(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)

STARTING LINEUP

F Marcus Lee (6.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG)
F Alex Poythress (10 PPG, 6.2 RPG)
G Jamal Murray (20 PPG, 5.1 RPG)
G Isaiah Briscoe (9.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
G Tyler Ulis (16.7 PPG, 7.4 APG)

Key Bench Players

F Derek Willis (7.8 PPG, 3.9 RPG)
F Skal Labissiere (6.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
C Isaac Humphries (2.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG)

Biggest strength: Top-shelf guard play is essential for success in Bracketville, and Coach Calipari has two future pros in Ulis and Murray. Ulis is one of the top assist men in the country (7.4 dimes per game), while Murray is a legit threat to score 20-plus points every time he laces up his high-tops. And Calipari is one of the best NCAA tourney coaches in the field, having taken three different programs (UMass, Memphis, Kentucky) to the Final Four.

Biggest weakness: The Wildcats usually do beautiful arc work. The Canadian import Murray is money from bonus land (.421 3PT), but Ulis (.312 3PT) and Briscoe (.139 3PT) -- Kentucky's other two starting guards -- struggle with their 3-ball aim.

Best player: Ulis is the size of a middle schooler at 5-foot-9 and 160 pounds, but he's the big man on Kentucky's campus. The Wildcats set ball screens galore for Ulis, whose quickness allows him to penetrate into the teeth of the defense and either score himself or dish off to others. And despite handling the ball constantly, Ulis sports a terrific 3.8-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is one of the nation's best.

X factor: At 6-foot-11, freshman forward Labissiere was billed as the program's next Karl-Anthony Towns. The Haitian was anything but a sensation for most of the season, however. Then he had a breakthrough at the end of the SEC regular season with consecutive strong games against Florida and LSU. If he keeps knocking down midrange shots and blocking opponents' tries with his condorlike wingspan like he did in those two contests, UK can make a serious run into April.


SCOUTING REPORT

Offensive approach: Kentucky plays like an NBA team. Ulis pushes the ball up at NASCAR-like speed, even after opponents' made baskets. If nothing is there, Ulis works off top-of-the-key screens and either scores himself or shares the wealth with the volume-shooting Murray. If Labissiere can keep hitting pick-and-pop jumpers, look out, because that frees up Lee and Poythress to attack the rim.

Defensive approach: The Wildcats' primary D of choice is man-to-man, but Calipari mixes in a 2-2-1 full-court press to wear opponents out. Even if that press doesn't turn teams over, it makes foes play faster than they would probably like against the Kentucky roster of thoroughbreds. In their man-to-man defense, UK's guards have the freedom to gamble a bit, knowing that there are reliable rim protectors behind them in Lee, Labissere, Poythress & Co.

How they beat you: Kentucky employs a time-tested recipe to prep for success in the Big Dance. Calipari prepares his team for March Madness by taking on brand name, RPI-enhancing foes like Duke, Kansas and Louisville before heading into the annual SEC meat grinder. By season's end, Calipari's talented bunch is toughened up and ready to make deep forays in the Big Dance.

How you beat them: You're unlikely to outplay Kentucky's backcourt duo of Ulis and Murray unless one of them gets into foul trouble. So you have to hope that UK's sometimes-inconsistent frontcourt has a down day and you are able to outlast the Wildcats.


WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY

(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)

NATIONAL RANKS

Offensive efficiency, 8th (119.2)
Defensive efficiency, 53rd (97.2)
3-point percentage, 127th (35.8)
3-point percentage D, 81st (32.9)
Free throw rate, 141st (38.1)
Free throw rate D, 282nd (41.8)
TO percentage, 62nd (16.4)
TO percentage D, 200th (17.8)

Good stat: 119.2 offensive efficiency rating
The Wildcats are an efficient offensive team because the players know their roles and stick to them. Murray owns the best pure stroke, so he hoists most of the team's 3s. Ulis is cat quick with the ball in his hands and unstoppable working off ball screens. Briscoe, Willis and Labissiere are adept from 15 feet and in, so that's where they operate. Lee and Poythress are athletic rim runners who score on lobs, putbacks and point-blank tries.

Bad stat: 41.8 free throw rate defense
The Kentucky frontcourt has more options than a diner menu, so the Cats play physical around the basket rather than giving up easy baskets. As a result, opponents will be asked to step to foul line and make two from the charity stripe rather than get an easy in-the-paint bucket.


HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?

Best-case scenario: National champion
The Wildcats appear to be peaking at just the right time. Guards are gold in the Big Dance, and Kentucky has the terrific tandem of Ulis and Murray. UK has a great March Madness coach and lots of viable frontcourt options. This is one of a select few teams with an excellent shot to cut down the nets.

Worst-case scenario: Round of 32 exit
Kentucky is as much a part of the March Madness fabric as 5-12 upsets, office pools and cheerleaders. Given their depth of talent, it's hard to envision the Wildcats being one and done. The second-round test will be significantly tougher, although UK will be a heavy favorite to at least get to the Sweet 16.