Fred Hoiberg may have left to coach the Chicago Bulls, but the style of play he helped create in Ames has lived on for the Iowa State Cyclones. In the first year under Steve Prohm, they remain a brilliant offensive team. Tournament success was the one thing that eluded Hoiberg. Could the change on the sidelines change the NCAA tournament fate for the Cyclones?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Colorado, Iowa, at Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas
Worst losses: vs. Northern Iowa, Baylor, at Texas Tech
Regular season conference finish: t-5th, Big 12
Polls and metrics: Iowa State peaked at No. 4 in the AP poll in December, but has remained ranked all season. Despite a 5-6 finish to the regular season the Cyclones remained a top-20 team in both KenPom and BPI.
All-time tourney record: 16-17, one Final Four
Coach's tourney record: Steve Prohm (1-1)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C Georges Niang (19.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG)
F Jameel McKay (11.8 PPG, 8.9 RPG)
F Abdel Nader (13.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
G Matt Thomas (10.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
G Monte Morris (14.2 PPG, 7.1 APG)
Key Bench Players
F Deonte Burton (10.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG)
G Hallice Cooke (2.9 PPG, 1.0 RPG)
G Jordan Ashton (1.0 PPG, 0.7 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Cyclones remain one of the best and most efficient offenses in the country. Niang and Morris are not only outstanding passers, but also good finishers, as is McKay, who makes 59.7 percent of his field goal attempts. As a team, the Cyclones rank second in the nation in field goal percentage.
Biggest weakness: Most of the statistical evidence illustrates what the eyes indicate is an issue with the Cyclones. They just aren't physical enough. Iowa State is 349th out of 351 teams in free throw attempts relative to their field goal attempts and both their offensive and defensive rebound rates land in the 250s.
Best player: Niang could be the most difficult offensive matchup in the country because he can score from different spots and in so many ways. He's something of a point forward who can facilitate as much as finish. Niang has also become as synonymous with his program as any player in recent memory.
X factor: The health of Morris' shoulder. The senior point guard suffered a rotator cuff injury in the regular season against Kansas and, while he can play, how healthy he is will go a long way to determining how far the Cyclones can go. Morris is seventh in the country in assists and has become a bigger scorer in his final season. He is nearly as important to Iowa State as Niang.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Iowa State is at its best with the ball in Morris' hands leading the break. In both the transition game and the halfcourt the Cyclones know how to space the floor and create driving and passing angles. The ball does not stay stagnant very long, keeping the opposing defense in nearly constant reaction mode.
Defensive approach: Defense, where they were last in the Big 12 in points allowed, is not a Cyclone strength. The lack of physicality is evident at that end of the floor. Prohm has largely stuck with Hoiberg's conservative approach to man-to-man. That does help in the foul game, however. Iowa State commits the fourth fewest fouls in the country. Thomas has improved from merely a standstill shooter to become the club's best perimeter defender.
How they beat you: With so much versatility within the individual players Iowa State provides matchup difficulties. Simply put, the Cyclones are hard to guard. Five of the six in the rotation are capable of making a 3-pointer and four can go to work in the low post. They will move the ball and get to open areas with the knowledge that most college defenses will supply an opening of which they can take advantage.
How you beat them: The more physical teams from the Big 12 like West Virginia and Baylor gave Iowa State problems. The rotation is just six deep, so, while Iowa State is good about not fouling, it can't really afford to either. That being said, Iowa State is going to score and not give away points with turnovers or free throws, so to beat them you have to be able to score as well.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 2nd (121.2)
Defensive efficiency, 111st (100.7)
3-point percentage, 43rd (37.9)
3-point percentage D, 147th (34.1)
Free throw rate, 349th (25.8)
Free throw rate D, 3rd (23.7)
TO percentage, 28th (15.7)
TO percentage D, 238th (17.2)
Good stat: 15.7 turnover percentage
This is largely due to the play of Morris, who has been among the lowest turnover point guards in the game since he took over the starting job in the middle of his freshman year. He has had to take more chances as a scorer this season, but still finished the regular season third in the nation rankings in assist/turnover ratio. Morris' play is the chief reason why Iowa State has the second-most efficient offense in the country.
Bad stat: 25.8 free throw rate D
The Cyclones don't make it easy on themselves because they just don't get to the free throw line much. With very few fouls either way Iowa State's games have a rhythm, the lack of free throws puts that much more pressure on the Cyclones ability to execute.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Elite Eight
Iowa State struggled some down the stretch -- going just 5-5 to finish the regular season, but that was against teams the Cyclones play regularly. Given how well they play offense, a sneaky winning streak is always a possibility.
Worst-case scenario: Second-round exit
Better Iowa State teams, like last year's, have gone out this early in the past. In fact, as good as Hoiberg was at giving new life to the program, he reached only one Sweet 16 in five years. It would seem unlikely that this edition would be the one that bucks the trend by making a deep run. An early exit is the more probable of the two scenarios.