The Iowa Hawkeyes are back in the NCAA tournament for the third consecutive season, the school's first such streak since the early 1990s. This year's team is laden with upperclassmen ready to make a run, led by National Player of the Year candidate Jarrod Uthoff. They've had a season full of ups and downs, so how far can they advance?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Wichita State, Florida State, Michigan State, at Purdue, at Michigan State, Purdue, at Michigan
Worst losses: at Penn State
Regular-season conference finish: 4th, Big Ten
Polls and metrics: The Hawkeyes entered the AP Poll on January 4 and haven't left since, peaking at No. 3. They also boast strong rankings in the more analytical metrics, at No. 23 in RPI and No. 19 in BPI.
All-time tourney record: 28-26 (3 Final Fours, 24 appearances)
Coach's tourney record: Fran McCaffery (3-7, 7 NCAA Tournament appearances)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C Adam Woodbury (7.9 PPG, 8.5 RPG)
F Jarrod Uthoff (18.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.6 BPG)
G Peter Jok (15.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.4 SPG)
G Anthony Clemmons (9.3 PPG, 3.5 APG)
G Mike Gesell (8.5 PPG, 6.2 APG)
Key Bench Players
F Dom Uhl (6.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
F Nicholas Baer (4.4 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
F Ahmad Wagner (2.7 PPG, 2.y RPG)
Biggest strength: Iowa controls the ball on offense, to the tune of the lowest turnover rate in the B1G. The Hawkeyes posted the seventh-best assist-to-turnover ratio in all of Division I. Their three guards, Gesell, Jok, and Clemmons, all have excellent court vision and make smart decisions. Uthoff, the focal point of the Iowa offense, shoots the ball 14.6 times per game, but only averages 1.1 turnovers per night.
Biggest weakness: Iowa has been inconsistent, especially down the stretch. After starting the year 16-3, with two wins over Michigan State, things fell apart. The Hawkeyes lost five of seven late in the Big Ten slate, and looked at times like a different team. After having games this season in which they hit as many as 12 3-pointers, Iowa shot only 3-of-12 from beyond the arc at Ohio State. After shooting the ball well most of the first half of the season, Iowa managed only 32 percent from the field against Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes' volatility puts their hopes of a tournament run in jeopardy.
Best player: Uthoff has been brilliant this season, on both ends of the floor. He's the first player since Shane Battier in 2000-01 to make more than 55 3-pointers and block more than 75 shots in a single season. The long-armed Uthoff plays with a stoic patience, but is able to explode for 30-point efforts or dazzling highlight defensive plays at the drop of a hat.
X factor: Jok's ability to shoot the ball from the outside sparked Iowa's midseason hot stretch and rise in the national polls. During the hawkeyes' nine-game win streak, Jok made 29 of 63 from long range, a scorching 46 percent. Compared to last year, he doubled his scoring average and increased his 3-point shooting by seven percentage points. The addition of Jok as a second scoring option has allowed Uthoff to find more open looks.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Iowa offense has proven to be greater than the sum of its parts. Clemmons and Gesell are effective slash-and-kick guards, with Jok and Uthoff on the receiving end. Jok stretches the defense with his range, while Uthoff is effective both on the block against smaller defenders and facing up against big men.
Defensive approach: Iowa will mix both man-to-man and zone, but its general philosophy remains the same in both. The guards are able to provide pressure on the ball, knowing Uthoff is behind them to protect the rim and Woodbury can clean misses off the glass.
How they beat you: An Iowa win centers around Uthoff and Jok being successful on the offensive end. Uthoff is one of the more difficult players in the nation to match up with, and Jok is capable of making any defense pay for helping too much. If that pair is in rhythm, Iowa is able to play strong defense, without fouling, and win tough games.
How you beat them: As Iowa faltered toward the end of the season, many of the Hawkeyes' strengths abandoned them. They began turning the ball over at a higher rate and shared the ball less effectively on offense. Iowa has shot a lower percentage when it has struggled, which has as much to do with how the Hawkeyes are getting their shots as the shots themselves.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 22nd (115.3)
Defensive efficiency, 28th (95.6)
3-point percentage, 35th (38.2)
3-point percentage D, 13th (30.6)
Free throw rate, 249th (34.0)
Free throw rate D, 10th (25.7)
TO percentage, 10th (14.6)
TO percentage D, 132nd (18.8)
Good stat: 25.7 defensive free throw rate
The Hawkeyes sent opponents to the free throw line at the 10th-lowest rate in America. With Uthoff posting 2.6 blocks per game and Gesell, Jok and Clemmons each swiping a steal per game, Iowa has been able to stay aggressive without giving opponents an easy path to points.
Bad stat: 31.5 offensive rebound rate allowed
Iowa has struggled a bit to keep opponents from grabbing offensive rebounds, posting the second-worst defensive rebounding rate in the Big Ten, only better than lowly Rutgers. Part of this is the amount of zone the Hawkeyes play, which can make boxing out tougher. Another part is the makeup of Iowa's roster. When they play their best lineup, the Hawkeyes are at a disadvantage on the backboard. With Uthoff covering ground to block shots, only Woodbury and a host of guards are left to rebound.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Elite Eight
If Iowa can right the ship and return to its January form, the Hawkeyes can make some noise in March. Uthoff is capable of putting together a memorable run, and Jok could get as hot as anyone in March. Iowa hasn't made the second weekend this century, but this could be the team that gets them there.
Worst-case scenario: A first-round collapse
Iowa's last set of consecutive wins in the regular season was way back in early February. Now the Hawkeyes face the challenge of winning several games in a row, with their season on the line each time. They could drift away from the postseason, just as they did in the Big Ten regular-season title race and the conference tournament.