Last year at this time, Tom Crean's seat couldn't have been hotter. His Indiana Hoosiers had underachieved two years in a row, and patience was wearing thin. Then came two deflating defeats in Maui this past November, and the loss of second-leading scorer James Blackmon Jr. to a season-ending injury in December. Crean's reign was tumbling to a haphazard end -- or so it seemed. And then, suddenly, Indiana reinvented itself, charged forward to an outright Big Ten title, and looked extremely impressive in doing so. Can the Hoosiers continue their late-season surge deep into the NCAA tournament?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Iowa, Iowa, Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin
Worst losses: Wake Forest, UNLV, at Penn State
Regular season conference finish: First, Big Ten
Polls and metrics: Indiana climbed into the top 10 of both polls, as well as the KenPom rankings, to conclude the regular season. The RPI and BPI have the Hoosiers toward the back end of the top 20.
All-time tourney record: 64-33, five national titles
Coach's tourney record: Tom Crean (9-8, one Final Four)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C Thomas Bryant (11.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
F Troy Williams (13.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG)
F Collin Hartman (5.1 PPG, 3.0 RPG)
G Robert Johnson (8.2 PPG, 3.1 APG)
G Yogi Ferrell (17.1 PPG, 5.5 APG)
Key Bench Players
G Nick Zeisloft (6.8 PPG, 0.9 APG)
C Max Bielfeldt (8.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
F OG Anunoby (4.3 PPG, 2.7 RPG)
Biggest strength: Indiana has arguably the most dynamic perimeter offense in college basketball. Spearheaded by senior point guard Ferrell, the Hoosiers have a breadth of players with multifaceted offensive games. When the pedal is to the floor, it's a high-flying attack that is nearly unstoppable.
Biggest weakness: The Hoosiers still aren't an elite defensive team -- though they've improved drastically in conference play. Their most apparent vulnerability is inside. Both Michigan State and Purdue, each with a traditional power forward, shot 67 percent inside the arc against Indiana. The Spartans' Matt Costello and the Boilermakers' A.J. Hammons and Caleb Swanigan made 20 of their 24 combined 2-point attempts.
Best player: Ferrell is one of the great players in Indiana basketball history. He's also downright fun to watch. He's lightning-quick with the ball in his hands and can penetrate seemingly at will. He sees passes nobody else on the floor can, and shoots more than 42 percent from 3. His defense has also improved as a senior. He's a true star.
X factor: Anunoby is a future standout in Bloomington. He played only 7.7 minutes per game in nonconference play, but his influence has gradually grown throughout the season. He's freakishly athletic -- with a 7-foot-3 wingspan -- and can defend all five positions. He's still raw offensively, but is the type of player who can change a game in March.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Indiana spaces the floor as well as any team in the country. Helping off of Ferrell are Johnson, Zeisloft, and Bielfeldt or Hartman -- which is like asking for a dagger through the heart, but Ferrell's penetration often leaves defenses with no choice but to do so. The result of this no-win situation for opponents is that more than 80 percent of the Hoosiers' shots are either dunks, layups (within five feet of the basket) or 3-pointers.
Defensive approach: The Hoosiers play straight man-to-man, switching screens and handoffs only if absolutely necessary. Quickness is not an issue -- players like Anunoby and Williams match up just fine with guards -- but size can be. The Hoosiers' overall athleticism can often compensate for a lack of it, though.
How they beat you: In addition to its masterful halfcourt execution, Indiana's offense is most relentless when it hits you while you've got your back turned. Williams, an uber-athletic forward, is a sight to behold in transition, and Zeisloft and Ferrell know how to find open shots before your defense is set. There are a number of ways the Hoosiers can outscore you.
How you beat them: Wisconsin provided somewhat of a blueprint in both of their matchups against Indiana. On defense, the key is limiting dribble penetration, playing with active hands, and perhaps forcing some frustration-induced turnovers. On offense, the ball must go to forwards inside, where the Hoosiers can be overpowered.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 4th (119.6)
Defensive efficiency, 66th (98.2)
3-point percentage, 5th (41.9)
3-point percentage D, 161st (34.5)
Free throw rate, 266th (33.1)
Free throw rate D, 37th (29.3)
TO percentage, 272nd (19.7)
TO percentage D, 119th (19.0)
Good stat: 41.9 3-point percentage
Every player in Indiana's rotation can knock down shots from beyond the arc. There are no exceptions. Six of the nine shoot better than 40 percent from deep. Even freshman center Thomas Bryant, in a recent win over Maryland, received a kick-out and hit a step-back 3 off the dribble. The Hoosiers' are lethal from long range, making them awfully difficult to defend.
Bad stat: 19.7 turnover percentage
When Indiana's offense struggles, it's not that the Hoosiers are missing shots in a lot of cases; it's that they aren't even getting them. In the two Big Ten games when Indiana scored under a point per possession, it turned the ball over a combined 34 times. In its first Big Ten loss to Wisconsin, the Hoosiers coughed it up 19 times. Turnovers are the one thing holding Indiana back on the offensive end.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: National champions
Why not? They've got the offensive firepower, strong guard play, and experience. If they stay hot for six consecutive games, don't rule out the Hoosiers.
Worst-case scenario: Second-round exit
As good as Indiana has been, two games are tough to ignore: the sloppy loss at Penn State, and the bludgeoning at the hands of Michigan State. The Hoosiers aren't yet above the fluke, nor do they have the top-end talent to go toe-to-toe with college basketball's royalty. A first-round flop is tough to foresee, but everything after that will be a challenge.