Apparently, Cinderella wears purple. The Holy Cross Crusaders capped an improbable run through the Patriot League tournament field with their fourth straight road win against Lehigh in the title game, and they are back in the Big Dance for the first time in almost a decade. Before the conference tourney, Bill Carmody's team hadn't won outside Worcester all season. Can the Crusaders continue to ride this incredible wave and pull off an upset?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Holy Cross did not win a game against a team inside the RPI Top 150.
Worst losses: American (twice), Loyola (twice)
Regular-season conference finish: Ninth in the Patriot
Polls and metrics: Holy Cross did not appear in either poll and ranked in the bottom 60 of the BPI.
All-time tourney record: 7-12 (one national title, two Final Fours)
Coach's tourney record: Bill Carmody is 1-2 with zero Final Four appearances.
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Malachi Alexander (10.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG)
F Robert Champion (11.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG)
F Karl Charles (10.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG)
G Cullen Hamilton (9.6 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
G Anthony Thompson (7.1 PPG, 2.6 APG)
Key bench players
F Matt Husek (6.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
G Matt Zignorski (3.8 PPG, 1.0 RPG)
G Eric Green (3.7 PPG, 2.2 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Crusaders are a solid nine deep and get quality contributions from their bench. Six players average six or more points, which makes it tough to zero in on a specific matchup to take away. Their confidence is at its peak, and because the Patriot spreads its tournament out, they're well-rested.
Biggest weakness: Lack of size. Alexander plays much bigger than 6-foot-7, but the Crusaders are typically overwhelmed on the glass. It doesn't help that their field goal and 3-point percentage defenses are some of the worst in the country.
Best player: Alexander. The swingman wears a variety of hats for Coach Carmody & Co. He can score on the block, he shoots a very high percentage from 3, and he is vastly underrated as a passer. The junior pumped in six triples in the title game against Lehigh, and his versatility will continue to be a necessary component if the Crusaders want to march on.
X factor: Green. The quick-handed senior guard has quietly returned from a knee injury to play a vital late-season role for Holy Cross. Green came up huge off the bench with his dribble penetration in the title game and produced 13 big points. It's not a coincidence that his best basketball of the year has come during this run.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Princeton-style offense has found its way to Worcester. Carmody's Crusaders exhaust the shot clock, run crisp backdoor cuts and take good care of the basketball.
Defensive approach: The Crusaders employ a mixture of man and zone defenses. Holy Cross often runs a 1-3-1 that has huge gaps along the elbows. As a result, it is often susceptible to high-percentage shooting nights by its opponents, though the Crusaders have played inspired D as of late.
How they beat you: Before this four-game surge, the Crusaders hadn't won back-to-back games since mid-December. Recently, they have limited turnovers, shot the ball well from the outside and kept their opponents in check from the perimeter. Alexander's emergence as the team's go-to guy hasn't hurt, either.
How you beat them: This isn't rocket science. Although the Crusaders' defensive numbers have been better lately, they're far from bulletproof. Move the ball well against the 1-3-1, and there are tons of open shots available. If an opponent can get into the teeth of their defense and knock shots down with consistency from the perimeter, it will likely coast to an easy win.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency: 305th (96.5)
Defensive efficiency: 218th (105.9)
3-point percentage: 265th (32.5)
3-point percentage D: 281st (36.7)
Free throw rate: 185th (36.4)
Free throw rate D: 118th (34.5)
TO percentage: 77th (16.7)
TO percentage D: 67th (20.0)
Good stat: 20.0% turnover D
Opponents turn the ball over on one out of every five possessions against the Crusaders. That's good for 67th in Division I, and more importantly, it means if Holy Cross is in a tight game late, the Crusaders can likely force an opponent to give the ball up.
Bad stat: 36.7% 3-point D
Although this has been better lately, the Crusaders aren't a very good perimeter defensive team. Carmody's interest in the 1-3-1 leaves Holy Cross incredibly vulnerable to giving up a lot of shots from the outside. Chances are someone in this year's field will be able to capitalize on those looks better than Holy Cross' Patriot League foes did in the conference tourney.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Round of 32
The best thing Holy Cross has going for it right now is its redemption story. A regular season in which the Crusaders won just 10 games and zero on the road goes into the rearview mirror, and the focus centers on extending an already impressive postseason run. The longer Holy Cross stays in the game with its Princeton-style offense, the more its chances to play giant-killer increase.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
We all love happy endings, but the Crusaders are likely to wake up from their fairy tale sometime soon. Holy Cross will likely draw a powerhouse in its opening matchup, and the Crusaders will face an opponent with the athletes to properly defend their draining style of play, as well as the offensive skill set to exploit a porous defense. That could make for a swift plane ride back to Worcester.