The Green Bay Phoenix won eight of their past nine games, including four straight in the Horizon League tournament to capture the conference title. Coach Linc Darner's squad plays at a frenetic pace, led by senior point guard Carrington Love, a first-team, All-Horizon selection. Can Green Bay run all the way to its first NCAA tournament win since 1994?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Akron, Valparaiso, at Morehead State
Worst losses: at Youngstown State, Toledo, at Milwaukee
Regular season conference finish: 4th, Horizon
Polls and metrics: Green Bay didn't crack the AP Top 25 at any point during the regular season and finished ranked 120th in RPI and 123rd in BPI.
All-time tourney record: 1-4 (lone win in 1994)
Coach's tourney record: Linc Darner (0-0)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Kenneth Lowe (7.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
G Jordan Fouse (12.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG)
G Charles Cooper (13.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG)
G Khalil Small (9.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
G Carrington Love (17.7 PPG, 3.5 APG)
Key Bench Players
F Turner Botz (5.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
F Jamar Hurdle (6.6 PPG, 3.3 RPG)
G Tevin Findlay (4.8 PPG, 1.1 APG)
Biggest strength: Tempo. Green Bay can run its opponent out of the gym. The Phoenix rank in the top 10 nationally in pace (76.6 possessions per game) and run one of the most effective fast breaks in the country. Their tempo creates opponent fatigue, which results in frequent trips to the free throw line.
Biggest weakness: Perimeter defense. Green Bay allowed 7.7 made 3-pointers per game this season, third-most in the Horizon League. By gambling for steals and being negligent on closeouts, the Phoenix often allow their opponents too many uncontested jumpers.
Best player: Love. He led the team in scoring (17.7 PPG), assists (3.5 APG) and led the conference in steals (2.6 SPG). He influences nearly every possession and is among the nation's most aggressive ball-handlers in the open floor. He provides the locomotion for Green Bay's up-tempo style by starting the fast break off the defensive glass.
X factor: Hurdle. Hurdle ranks third on the team in points per 40 minutes (18.1) and provides a shot in the arm as a scorer off the bench. At 6-foot-7, his length enables him to guard multiple positions on the floor and alter shots in the paint (1.1 BPG). The Phoenix went 9-1 this season when he scored in double-figures.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Darner's team rarely settles into a traditional half-court offense, instead opting to pursue easy baskets by pushing the ball, especially off opponent misses. Their aggression resulted in 28.1 free throw attempts per game during the season, most in the Horizon League.
Defensive approach: The Phoenix primarily play man-to-man, often with full-court action. Their press often results in opponent turnovers, ranking fourth in Division I this season on a per game basis (16.9). Green Bay is a matchup nightmare against teams without experienced ball handlers.
How they beat you: Green Bay feeds off Love's energy on both ends of the floor. When he and backcourt mate Cooper attack the basket relentlessly, good things happen for this squad. They went 13-1 this season when making at least 20 free throws.
How you beat them: To beat Green Bay, you must limit careless mistakes against their full-court press and take advantage of their overzealous nature. The Phoenix went just 6-7 this season when failing to force at least 15 turnovers.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 131st (105.7)
Defensive efficiency, 157th (102.7)
3-point percentage, 197th (34.1)
3-point percentage D, 282nd (36.7)
Free throw rate, 81st (40.5)
Free throw rate D, 140th (35.7)
TO percentage, 29th (15.8)
TO percentage D, 21st (21.3)
Good stat: 21.3 TO percentage D
This is Green Bay's money-maker. Without an effective halfcourt offense, the Phoenix rely on turnovers, which create easy buckets at the other end. Love and Fouse (2.1 SPG), a second-team All-Horizon selection, have extraordinary ball-hawking instincts.
Bad stat: 36.7 3-point percentage D
It's going to be difficult for the Phoenix to pull off a victory if they don't clamp down with their perimeter defense. For as laudable as their press is defensively, they become a pedestrian group in the half court, often with noticeably bad communication on high ball-screens.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Round of 32
To describe Green Bay as "gimmicky" would be unfair, but its style is unique and could surprise an unprepared opponent, especially one that lacks experienced guards. If Love and his backcourt companions play defense with their hair on fire and can get their opponent into foul trouble, they're talented enough to knock off a heavy favorite.
Worst-case scenario: One and done
The Phoenix were far too inconsistent this season to confidently predict even one win. Their lack of able bodies in the post could prove fatal against a team with more size and their inability to defend the 3-point line will likely prove problematic against any opponent. A deep run is all but out of the question.