When Rodney Terry took over as coach of the Fresno State Bulldogs in 2012, it took him three years to produce the program's first winning season since 2007. This season he produced the most wins for the Bulldogs (13) since Jerry Tarkanian's 2001 team. That year was also the last time Fresno State made the NCAA tournament. Thanks to a nail-biting Mountain West Conference tournament final win over San Diego State, the Bulldogs are back. What are the chances their momentum will carry over to another upset or two?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at San Diego State, vs. San Diego State
Worst losses: at Cal Poly, New Mexico, at San Jose State
Regular season conference finish: 2nd, Mountain West
Polls and metrics: The BPI ranks the Bulldogs at 106, while KenPom doesn't have them quite as high at 118.
All-time tourney record: 2-5
Coach's tourney record: Rodney Terry (0-0)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Cullen Russo (8.0 PPG, 6.3 RPG)
F Karachi Edo (10.0 PPG, 6.6 RPG)
F Marvelle Harris (20.7 PPG, 4.4 APG)
G Julien Lewis (8.6 PPG, 1.5 APG)
G Cezar Guerrero (8.3 PPG, 2.5 APG)
Key bench players
F Paul Watson (7.6 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
G Jahmel Taylor (4.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
G Terrell Carter II (4.0 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
Biggest strength: Having a player like Harris means Fresno State always has a chance to compete. He is a good scorer, and because of the attention he draws, options open up for others. Guerrero is a former top-60 recruit and is one Bulldog who takes advantage of the extra space. On the other end of the floor, again led by Harris, Fresno State has the second-highest steal-percentage ranking in the country.
Biggest weakness: Fresno State lacks overall athleticism. It really isn't much of an issue until someone other than Harris needs to create offense make a play. If the Bulldogs are to pull off an upset, that may be necessary at some point. It isn't clear who that player would be.
Best player: Harris led the Mountain West in assists, was third in scoring and won the conference player of the year. The 6-foot-4 senior was even on the All-Defensive team. Harris' teammates must make sure he gets touches. He would be considered a volume shooter with 554 field goal attempts, but he also creates offense for others.
X factor: Efficiency. If Harris can get his points without needing many shots, the offense is running smoothly. The Bulldogs turned the ball over less than any team in the MWC and topped the league in assist-to-turnover ratio.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Bulldogs will run selectively, but they are primarily a half-court team that runs a disciplined series of sets. Everyone gets touches, and they all use the shot clock. Harris makes tough shots, so he can be put in almost any situation.
Defensive approach: Terry has tried to model his program after San Diego State, the team the Bulldogs beat to earn the MWC automatic bid. The Aztecs' foundation is aggressive defense. Fresno State plays the same way -- man-to-man with active hands and plenty of physicality.
How they beat you: Harris needs to produce. He does too much on a regular basis for the Bulldogs to beat any tournament-caliber team without his full output. More than that, though, Fresno State can get stops on defense. Against the Bulldogs, it won't be easy to score.
How you beat them: Force Harris to use a volume of shots to get his points. Crowding Harris forces him to work harder. When he does put the ball on the floor, he prefers to go to the right. Playing him that to the left will force him to give up the ball earlier than he wants to.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 144th (105.2)
Defensive efficiency, 128th (101.3)
3-point percentage, 183rd (34.3)
3-point percentage D, 133rd (33.8)
Free throw rate, 143rd (38.0)
Free throw rate D, 338th (47.3)
TO percentage, 16th (15.1)
TO percentage D, 37th (20.9)
Good stat: 15.1 turnover percentage
The Bulldogs do a good job of taking care of the ball. Guerrero is a steady, reliable point guard, and even Harris, given how much he has the ball, does not give it away often.
Bad stat: 47.3 free throw rate D
Fresno State commits significantly more fouls than its opposition and is routinely outscored at the line. Most jump-shooting teams don't get to the line much, but the Bulldogs compound that by putting the other team there.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Round of 32
Harris can dominate a game to the point of virtually winning it by himself. That could give Fresno State, which comes into the tournament on a nine-game winning streak, an upset win. It would be the first since that Tarkanian-coached team beat Cal as a No. 9 seed in 2001.
Worst-case scenario: Opening-round loss
If Harris gets in foul trouble and has to miss any significant minutes in the first half, the Bulldogs may fall out of the game before he gets back in the mix. None of the other Bulldogs possesses the firepower or one-on-one skills to score enough to bridge that gap.