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Bracket Projection: Florida Gulf Coast

The Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (aka Dunk City) are back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since their magical run in 2012-13, which ended in the regional semifinal. After needing overtime to down Stetson on their home floor to win the Atlantic Sun title, this team is ready to make some noise once again. Will they be able to sneak up on anyone this time?

ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.


TOURNEY PROFILE

Best wins: North Florida (twice)

Worst losses: at Lipscomb, vs. Jacksonville, at Jacksonville, at Stetson

Regular-season conference finish: Second in the Atlantic Sun

Polls and metrics: Florida Gulf Coast has not been ranked in either poll this season.

All-time tourney record: 2-1

Coach's tourney record: This is Joe Dooley's first appearance (0-0).

Bracketology chart | BPI information


PERSONNEL

(Note: Player statistics are through games March 6.)

STARTING LINEUP

G Christian Terrell (12.6 PPG, 4.9 APG)
G Zach Johnson (11.0 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
G Julian DeBose (8.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
F Marc Eddy Norelia (17.2 PPG, 9.2 RPG)
F Demetris Morant (5.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG)

Key bench players

F Antravious Simmons (7.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG)
G/F Rayjon Tucker (6.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG)
F Filip Cvjeticanin (4.9 PPG, 1.8 RPG)

Biggest strength: This is not the same Dunk City team you might remember from 2013. This version of the Eagles generally earns its wins via terrific half-court defense and some quality interior play. FGCU locks teams down from distance and uses its athletic frontcourt players to sport a block percentage that is top 10 in the nation.

Biggest weakness: With FGCU's high pressure half-court defense comes quality looks and plenty of easy buckets for opposing teams. FGCU's foes post the 53rd shortest possessions in the nation (16.6 seconds), and the Eagles don't turn people over (289th in defensive turnover percentage). Teams with quality guards who can handle pressure and make shots will give the Eagles issues.

Best player: Norelia is a stunningly athletic and skilled big man who can score against the best defensive post players. Norelia shot 53 percent from the field this season and is equally comfortable backing up, facing up or putting the ball on the floor. He has averaged 20.8 points in the Eagles' past five games.

X factor: Simmons. The 6-foot-9 sophomore had a monster game to help FGCU win the A-Sun title in overtime against Stetson; he posted 21 points and 12 rebounds in 23 minutes off the bench. The effort was without a doubt his best of the season, as the big man is a boom- or bust-type bench piece. Simmons has the ability to give the Eagles another interior scoring option in the post when he's on. That boost would be huge against a team with more frontline depth than FGCU.


SCOUTING REPORT

Offensive approach: Unlike in 2013, when FGCU would take the first decent look it got, this team is a patient bunch that prefers to work through their skilled big man. The Eagles are best when they get Norelia paint touches early in the shot clock and let their guards play off him. This team attacks the rim as hard as anyone in the country and does not settle for 3-point jump shots.

Defensive approach: Although they don't force turnovers, Coach Dooley's team applies plenty of man-to-man pressure in the half court and allows the guards to really disrupt offenses out past the timelines. The Eagles will show a press if needed, but they really feast off teams that don't show patience offensively and take an abundance of 3-point shots.

How they beat you: The Eagles are at their best operating through Norelia and letting their guards play off his presence. They are a capable shooting team, but FGCU attacks the paint every possession and will not settle for long jumpers. The Eagles beat teams by scoring points on high-percentage shots and forcing poor-percentage shots on the defensive end.

How you beat them: To get past the Eagles, you need to make their guards beat you with jump shots and keep the ball out of the paint. FGCU ranks fourth nationally in percent of points scored on 2-point shots (61.2%) and does everything it can to go inside. A team with great length on the perimeter and defensively strong guards can prevent post entries and keep FGCU's wings out of the paint while limiting penetration and forcing long jump shots.


WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY

(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games March 6.)

NATIONAL RANKS

Offensive efficiency: 187th (102.8)
Defensive efficiency: 175th (103.7)
3-point percentage: 168th (34.6)
3-point percentage D: 24th (31.0)
Free throw rate: 184th (36.4)
Free throw rate D: 153rd (36.1)
TO percentage: 87th (16.9)
TO percentage D: 289th (16.2)

Good stat: 31.0% 3-point defense
FGCU's great half-court pressure defense leads to plenty of long, poor looks from distance, and their 31 percent defense ranks 24th nationally. The Eagles' active man-to-man defense extends well past the 3-point line on most possessions and is what makes them go. Inside, Dooley's team sports the seventh best block percentage in America, which shows they can alter shots inside as well (7.2%).

Bad stat: 64.5% free throw shooting

One of the reasons the Eagles go inside so much is to mask their jump-shooting woes. FGCU's 64 percent foul shooting could cost them a first-round game against a team with likely inferior talent and athletes. It's hard to envision the Eagles knocking off a top seed while shooting around 60 percent from the line, given their aggressive style of play, but they might try to do it.


HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?

Best-case scenario: One win
The Eagles' ceiling is one win and done. Although they possess the interior play and half-court defense to spring an upset, they lack the type of guards and shooters who generally make deep runs and knock off superior teams.

Worst-case scenario: First-round loss
There's really no worst-case scenario when you're coming out of the Atlantic Sun Conference, so a first-round loss would be neither stunning nor disappointing. FGCU is playing with house money in this field and, thus, should be nice and loose for their matchup. The Eagles' 2013 run to the regional semifinal shows this is a program capable of shocking the nation.