No one expects much of a team full of underclassmen, led by a coach who has never made the tournament before, to make a run in March. But that's exactly what the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights did, clinching the Northeast Conference's automatic bid on the road at top-seeded Wagner. For some small schools and young teams, that accomplishment is satisfying enough. The next challenge will be much bigger. Are the Knights ready for the madness?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Towson
Worst losses: Sacred Heart, Robert Morris, Mount St. Mary's, Bryant, at Rutgers, Army
Regular-season conference finish: 2nd, Northeast Conference
Polls and metrics: Playing in the third-worst conference by RPI, the Knights finished their season at No. 202 in RPI and No. 263 in the KenPom rankings.
All-time tourney record: 0-4 (4 appearances)
Coach's tourney record: Greg Herenda (first NCAA Tournament appearance)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Mike Holloway (9.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG)
G Earl Potts Jr. (14.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG)
G Marques Townes (11.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.7 APG)
G Stephan Jiggetts (11.2 PPG, 3.1 APG)
G Darian Anderson (15.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.7 APG)
Key Bench Players
F Tyrone O'Garro (3.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG)
G Darnell Edge (4.3 PPG, 1.2 RPG)
G Ghassan Nehme (4.2 PPG, 1.6 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Knights' defense is able to create turnovers, sparking their up-tempo offense into transition. Fairleigh Dickinson nabbed the 34th-most steals in the nation, thanks in part to their four-guard lineups. Coach Herenda's team is quick and capable of putting pressure on any opponent's guards.
Biggest weakness: This FDU team is impossibly young and inexperienced for a team in the NCAA tournament. The average Knight has played college basketball for only .75 seasons, the fourth-youngest mark in Division I. The starting lineup features four sophomores and a freshman. The first three bodies off the bench are a junior and two more freshmen. Senior Day must have been a short ceremony, because the Knights don't have any fourth-year players on the roster. Duke and Kentucky may have redefined what freshmen are capable of in March in recent years, but that is not in play here.
Best player: Anderson epitomizes what Fairleigh Dickinson is about. He's small, quick and lethal in transition. Anderson led the Northeast Conference in steals and turned those steals into points for the Knights. He showed he's ready for a big stage in the NEC Championship game, posting 28 points, six rebounds, five assists and a pair of steals.
X factor: On a team that plays such small lineups, Potts is the player doing Fairleigh Dickinson's tough work inside the paint. Despite being only 6-foot-6, he has grabbed 6.3 rebounds per game and posted six double-doubles this season. He has also been a matchup problem for bigs having to chase on the perimeter, shooting 40 percent from beyond the 3-point line and leading the NEC in true shooting percentage.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Knights look to push the pace in transition and spread defenses out. Their smaller, more agile lineups find mismatches and exploit them with dribble-drive penetration. This slash-and-kick style helped them shoot the highest percentage on 2-point and 3-point baskets in NEC play this year.
Defensive approach: Fairleigh Dickinson will show opponents a mix of man-to-man and zone defenses, playing both in a similar style. They stay aggressive, with four guards looking to pressure and cause turnovers, especially live-ball turnovers that can be converted into points.
How they beat you: FDU both scored and allowed more than 77 points per game this season. The Knights are most comfortable in a high-scoring, back-and-forth game. When they are creating turnovers, getting out in transition and finding their way into the paint, the pieces on this young roster begin to click.
How you beat them: While Fairleigh Dickinson does a good job forcing turnovers, the rest of their defense can be a bit of a mess. They were among the nation's worst defensive rebounding teams, sent their opponents to the free throw line far too often and allowed opponents to make shots from all over the floor. When FDU's opponents practice patience and can control the ball, they have little trouble finding opportunities on offense.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 158th (104.7)
Defensive efficiency, 337th (114.3)
3-point percentage, 108th (36.1)
3-point percentage D, 256th (36.2)
Free throw rate, 263rd (33.4)
Free throw rate D, 330th (46.2)
TO percentage, 173rd (18.0)
TO percentage D, 26th (21.1)
Good stat: 51.6 effective field goal percentage
Many teams that play at a high tempo are more concerned with volume than efficiency, but Fairleigh Dickinson is still able to get higher percentage shots on the offensive end, even at its pace. FDU led the NEC in effective field goal percentage, and shot the best percentages from the field, 2-point range and 3-point range in conference play.
Bad stat: 113.9 defensive efficiency
On the other end of the floor, the Knights are another story. Their defense relies entirely on its ability to force turnovers and has trouble in most other aspects. In the NEC this year, they allowed the highest offensive rebound rate, highest free throw rate and second-best 3-point percentage.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Put a scare in a top dog.
With such a young team, coming this far was already a great season for Fairleigh Dickinson. They'll surely be considered one of the favorites to win the NEC title next year, but they could put a much bigger claim on that distinction by coming within a few possessions of a first-round upset. The Knights don't have the firepower to pull off the win, though.
Worst-case scenario: A blowout opening-round loss.
One of the great aspects of this tournament is watching the teams that are just happy to be there while playing with nothing to lose. For this young team, getting a taste of the tournament excitement will be worth the trip.