The defending national champion Duke Blue Devils lost senior captain Amile Jefferson to a foot fracture in early December, so coach Mike Krzyzewski been going with a six-man rotation for most of the season. Despite a 4-4 start in the ACC, the Blue Devils won 20-plus games for the 20th straight season and are back in the Big Dance yet again. In Grayson Allen (21.5 ppg) and Brandon Ingram (16.7 ppg), Duke has one of the most feared one-two punches in college basketball. But will six players, and only one true center who has the coaching staff's full trust (6-foot-11 grad student Marshall Plumlee), be enough for Duke, or will its lack of depth keep the Blue Devils from going deep in this year's tourney?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Indiana, Louisville, Virginia, North Carolina
Worst losses: at Clemson, at Pitt
Regular-season conference finish: T-Fifth, Atlantic Coast Conference
Polls and metrics: The Blue Devils' 4-4 start in the ACC cost Duke its spot in the top 25 for the first time since 2007, but one-point wins over Virginia and North Carolina brought Coach K's club back into the polls.
All-time tourney record: 105-34, five national titles
Coach's tourney record: Mike Krzyzewski (88-26, five NCAA titles)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C Marshall Plumlee (8.1 PPG, 8.7 RPG)
F Brandon Ingram (16.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG)
G Matt Jones (11 PPG, 2.4 APG)
G Grayson Allen (21.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG)
G Derryck Thornton (7.6 PPG, 2.5 APG)
Key Bench Players
G Luke Kennard (11.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG)
F Chase Jeter (1.6 PPG, 1.7 APG)
Biggest strength: Krzyzewski is a living legend. He has a six-man rotation, but there's talent aplenty in that group. Allen might have his share of haters after his tripping episode with Louisville's Raymond Spalding, but Allen can flat-out score off the dribble and from beyond the arc. Ingram is supermodel-skinny but reminds some NBA scouts of a young Kevin Durant with his innate scoring ability and seemingly endless arms.
Biggest weakness: No one is crying for Coach K, but a six-man rotation gives the Blue Devils a very thin margin for error. One key player in serious foul trouble and the Devils could be cooked.
Best players: Allen and Ingram are both scoring machines. The 6-5 Allen improved his scoring average between this season and last season by a whopping 17.1 points. And Ingram, the 2016 ACC Newcomer of the Year, is a 6-9 wing with guard skills and a 7-3 wingspan.
X factor: Jones. It seems as unlikely as Will Ferrell winning an Oscar, but a member of Duke's starting five is actually underrated. Jones is a dogged defender. His tight defense on Wisconsin's Sam Dekker in last year's national title game was crucial to the Blue Devils' victory. On offense, his jumper is pure, but he can also beat defenders off the bounce.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Blue Devils impeccably space the floor in their 4-out, 1-in sets with Plumlee ably manning the low post, Ingram positioned at the top of the key (a perfect spot for his pick-and-pop jumpers), and the guards (Allen, Jones, Thornton, and Kennard) poised to knock down jumpers as well.
Defensive approach: Duke's guards defend the 3-point line at all costs. If opposing guards beat them off the bounce, then the Devils' bigs (Plumlee and Ingram) await to either swat their shot or to take a charge.
How they beat you: They space the court and let their skilled six-man rotation go to town in Coach K's simple but lethal plan. Allen, Ingram, Jones and lefty sixth man Kennard all own net-snapping jumpers. And if you try to crowd them, they'll beat you off the dribble.
How you beat them: With only six bodies, you attack Duke from the get-go. They can get beaten up on the glass (e.g., North Carolina manhandled them on the backboards in the regular-season finale). Trap and pressure them on defense to further tire them. And lastly, opponents must make Ingram and Allen play defense in hopes of a) making them tired late in the game or b) getting one of them in foul trouble.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 7th (119.2)
Defensive efficiency, 93rd (99.6)
3-point percentage, 22nd (38.9)
3-point percentage D, 111th (33.5)
Free throw rate, 77th (40.6)
Free throw rate D, 8th (25.2)
TO percentage, 9th (14.6)
TO percentage D, 203rd (17.7)
Good stat: 38.9 3PT percentage
The Blue Devils subscribe wholeheartedly to today's "live-3-or-die" approach that has swept college basketball. Often times, the Devils have four 3-point marksmen on the court at once. It works as Duke is 22nd nationally in 3-point shooting percentage. But what makes the Duke offense so efficient is that it's also able to isolate future pros Ingram and Allen and let them go to work.
Bad stat: 40.6 free throw rate
The Blue Devils start three guards and Ingram so their offense can become perimeter-oriented, resulting in a mix of mid-range shots, drives, and some trifecta tries.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Elite 8
If Coach K trusted Jeter a little bit more, the Blue Devils would have seven viable options. The team's lack of depth will catch up with them at some point this March. Our guess is that it'll probably happen in the second game on the second weekend against a fellow brand name foe with just a few more healthy bodies at their disposal.
Worst-case scenario: Round of 32 exit
Following an initial win, the Blue Devils probably will draw an opponent capable of knocking them off if they leave their A-game back in Durham or if their six ironmen simply get too gassed to advance.