In the past three seasons, Archie Miller's Dayton Flyers have established themselves as the toast of one of the nation's most competitive conferences. Dayton still boasts plenty of tourney experience from each of its past two trips, but losses in three of its past six regular-season games and a nagging knee injury to Kendall Pollard are both cause for concern. Can the Flyers shake it off and put together another storied run to the second weekend?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Iowa, Monmouth, at Vanderbilt, VCU
Worst losses: at La Salle, Rhode Island
Regular season conference finish: Tie-1st, A-10
Polls and metrics: Dayton cracked the top 15 in both polls and achieved its highest national ranking in 49 years.
All-time tourney record: 19-18, one Final Four
Coach's tourney record: Archie Miller (5-2, zero Final Fours)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Charles Cooke (15.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG)
F Dyshawn Pierre (12.6 PPG, 8.5 RPG)
F Kendall Pollard (10.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG)
G Scoochie Smith (11.8 PPG, 4.1 APG)
G Kyle Davis (7.8 PPG, 1.1 SPG)
Key Bench Players
G Darrell Davis (6.1 PPG, 2.4 RPG)
C Steve McElvene (6.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG)
F Sam Miller (3.3 PPG, 1.4 RPG)
Biggest strength: Versatility. The Flyers are a bit of an offensive hybrid because of their consistent ability to win both high- and low-scoring games. Both Cooke and Pierre can score inside and out while banged-up forward Pollard adds energy in the post. Coach Miller's squad goes as many as nine deep, benefiting a team that thrives in transition.
Biggest weakness: Dayton loves to dictate the tempo by getting out in the open court, but the Flyers' warts have shown when they have to slow down. In an early January loss to La Salle, the Explorers worked the shot clock to under 10 and kept Dayton's offense in check by playing zone. The result was its most disappointing loss of the season.
Best player: Cooke. A year of waiting in the wings as a transfer has done wonders. There's a rhythm to his game both inside and out, but perhaps his biggest asset is his ability to adjust to what the defense gives him. He's the Flyers' top 3-point threat and a powerful finisher at the rim.
X factor: Smith. The junior point guard's brand of New York City toughness and big play ability make him one to watch in March. His dribble penetration and end-to-end quickness allow for lots of big-play situations and he hasn't been shy about delivering. Dayton's two wins to close the regular season were direct results of his scoring outbursts. That's not an accident.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Flyers love to grab rebounds and then push the gas pedal and go, go, go. They're better in a setting where the pace is up-tempo and requires them to score 80-plus. They have enough scoring options where half-court offense isn't a problem, but it's not their strong suit, either.
Defensive approach: Fierce, on-the-ball man-to-man defense. Three starters have 30 or more steals, and the Flyers do a good job of pushing opponents to the perimeter. 2-point baskets are hard to come by against Dayton but treys not so much. That's by design, and it has worked in their favor more often than not.
How they beat you: The amount of available offensive options the Flyers possess is staggering. Their pace of play means they just keep coming and can eventually wear opponents out with their constant end-to-end tempo.
How you beat them: Force the Flyers into a half-court game, pack the lane and make them beat you from the perimeter. There's also a chance Pollard isn't completely healthy, and that makes Dayton a completely different team when it comes to interior presence. They can win without him but are far from the same team.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 130th (105.7)
Defensive efficiency, 19th (95.0)
3-point percentage, 149th (35.3)
3-point percentage D, 199th (35.1)
Free throw rate, 64th (41.4)
Free throw rate D, 75th (32.2)
TO percentage, 215th (18.7)
TO percentage D, 199th (17.8)
Good stat: 41.4 free throw rate
The Flyers are one of the top 70 teams in the nation when it comes to finding their way to the line. In three neutral-site games this season, Dayton actually averaged more made free throws than it did anywhere else. If that trend continues, it could prove to be a difference-maker.
Bad stat: 18.7 turnover percentage D
This isn't necessarily a big concern, but this number means Dayton ranks in the bottom half of Division I in forcing opponents to give up the ball. Smith and Kyle Davis may have trouble with bigger guards, and while almost-7-footer McElvene provides a presence in the lane, he's still only a freshman and playing in his first Big Dance.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
Four of Dayton's five starters played big roles on the team that surged to the Elite 8 two years ago. There's little substitute for experience and mental toughness in an event that tends to reward teams that possess both. The Flyers have all of the pieces in place for another run to the second weekend. If they can solve their recent woes and keep Pollard relatively healthy, then they'll likely be there.
Worst-case scenario: Second-round exit
Wind the clock back just a few weeks ago when Dayton played at Saint Louis. The Flyers were downright awful offensively but managed to escape with only 52 points and an overtime win simply because the Billikens happened to be worse. Their sudden "Jekyll and Hyde" makeup may still leave them vulnerable to go out early in this year's field.