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Bracket Projection: Connecticut

Residing squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble, the Connecticut Huskies needed an AAC quarterfinal win over fellow bubble team Cincinnati, a squad that defeated them twice during the regular season, to punch their Big Dance ticket. The third time ended up being the charm as the Huskies outlasted the Bearcats 104-97 in a compelling, four-OT marathon triumph that helped fuel a run to the tourney title. Now in the Field of 68, UConn could prove to be a dangerous dance partner. They played a rugged nonconference schedule -- wins over Michigan, Gonzaga, Ohio State; losses to Syracuse, Gonzaga and Maryland -- but were a bit inconsistent in league play due in part to the 11-game absence of 7-footer Amida Brimah. With Brimah back, do the Huskies have another NCAA run in them?

ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.


TOURNEY PROFILE

Best wins: Michigan, Ohio State, Texas, SMU, vs. Cincinnati in 4 OTs

Worst losses: Temple (twice), Cincinnati (twice)

Regular-season conference finish: tied-3rd, American Athletic Conference

Polls and metrics: Thanks to their tough nonleague schedule, the Huskies ended the regular season with a healthy 30 BPI and 55 RPI.

All-time tourney record: 58-29, four national titles

Coach's tourney record: Kevin Ollie (6-0, one national title)

Bracketology chart | BPI information


PERSONNEL

(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)

STARTING LINEUP

C Amida Brimah (6.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG)
F Shonn Miller (12.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
F Daniel Hamilton (11.6 PPG, 8.7 RPG)
G Rodney Purvis (12.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG)
G Sterling Gibbs (8.0 PPG, 2.5 APG)

Key Bench Players

G Jalen Adams (6.8 PPG, 2.2 APG)
G Omar Calhoun (4.3 PPG, 1.9 RPG)
F Kentan Facey (3.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG)

Biggest strength: College hoops, particularly in this one-and-done March pressure cooker, is a guard's game and Coach Ollie has three top-shelf perimeter players in Hamilton, Gibbs and Purvis. Hamilton, in particular, is a big-time talent. The Huskies often spread the floor, swing the ball in Hamilton's direction and ask him to make a play. UConn is absolutely lethal in the open court as well.

Biggest weakness: Slow starts have been a bugaboo for this UConn team. They'll need to be ready from the get-go in the Big Dance or it could be a short stay in Bracketville for Ollie's bunch.

Best player: Supermodel skinny, but skilled sophomore Hamilton is the next megawatt star in the UConn pipeline. Hamilton can score, rebound and share the ball (4.8 assists per game). He registered 32 points, 12 boards and eight assists in last week's 4-OT thriller over Cincinnati, in what was billed as an unofficial NCAA tourney play-in game.

X factor: Scoring balance. The Huskies feature four double-figure scorers in Purvis, Miller, Gibbs and Hamilton. The addition of graduate students Gibbs (formerly Seton Hall) and Miller (Cornell) turned out to be masterstrokes by Ollie. The Huskies wouldn't be in the Big Dance without them.


SCOUTING REPORT

Offensive approach: The Huskies have an unflappable closer in Hamilton, one of the best young players in the East. But this isn't a one-man team. Miller, Purvis and Gibbs -- all 12-point-per-game scorers -- don't need a GPS to find their way to the hoop.

Defensive approach: Ollie preaches airtight man-to-man D. And his players listen; they surrendered just 62.2 points per game.

How they beat you: Late in the shot clock and late in close games, Ollie makes sure the ball is swung into Hamilton's hands so he can work his magic.

How you beat them: By matching the mental toughness of UConn's three-headed perimeter monster (Hamilton, Purvis and Gibbs) and by being prepared for a grind-it-out affair.


WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY

(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)

NATIONAL RANKS

Offensive efficiency, 83rd (108.3)
Defensive efficiency, 10th (93.1)
3-point percentage, 121st (35.9)
3-point percentage D, 84th (32.9)
Free throw rate, 335th (29.2)
Free throw rate D, 116th (34.4)
TO percentage, 89th (16.9)
TO percentage D, 133rd (18.8)

Good stat: 93.1 defensive efficiency rating
The Huskies are determined defenders. They are 10th in the nation in this category and also excel in scoring defense. If UConn's guards get beaten off the bounce, they have the luxury of having the 7-footer Brimah, now back and 100 percent healthy, as a proven last line of defense.

Bad stat: 29.2 free throw rate
UConn is the best free throw shooting team in the AAC (.778 FT). However, they settle for far too many jump shots. The Huskies attempted only 518 free throws during the regular season, the lowest number of attempts by any AAC team.


HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?

Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
During March Madness, stingy defense and stellar perimeter play are necessary ingredients for success. And the Huskies play in-your-jersey D and have scoring options aplenty. They are equipped to cause some bracket havoc.

Worst-case scenario: One and done
The Huskies have been a slow-starting, inconsistent bunch. Part of the inconsistency was due to the fact that the Huskies missed Brimah for 11 games. He's back now. But slow starts can doom a team in the NCAA tourney.