After residing, like most American Athletic Conference contenders, on the NCAA bubble, the Cincinnati Bearcats heard their name called on a sixth straight Selection Sunday. Cincinnati essentially has the same cast of characters back from last season's NCAA tourney team that lost a tough one to Kentucky in the Round of 32. The names and the game remain the same for Mick Cronin's squad: play at deliberate pace, defend like banshees, and battle tooth-and-nail until the final horn. Will this time-honored Cincinnati recipe for success add up to 2016 March Madness wins?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at VCU, Houston, Tulsa, UConn (twice), SMU
Worst losses: Temple (twice), at Memphis
Regular season conference finish: tied for 3rd, American Athletic Conference
Polls and metrics: The Bearcats ended the regular season with a 36 RPI.
All-time tourney record: 44-28, two national titles
Coach's tourney record: Mick Cronin (4-7)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Octavius Ellis (9.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG)
F Gary Clark (10.6 PPG, 8.9 RPG)
G/F Jacob Evans III (8.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
G Troy Caupain (12.4 PPG, 4.8 APG)
G Farad Cobb (10.6 PPG, 1.7 APG)
Key Bench Players
F Shaq Thomas (6.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG)
G Kevin Johnson (6.2 PPG, 1.6 APG)
C Coreontae DeBerry (5.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG)
Biggest strength: Defense and team toughness are Cincinnati's calling cards, and their games are generally half-court street fights. Cincy's sticky defense keeps the Bearcats in every game as they surrender a scant 61.5 points per game, the 11th-best scoring defense unit in the country. Their guards can take chances because Clark, the 2016 AAC Defensive Player of Year, is there to swat shots if opponents' perimeter players get too frisky and attempt to slash to the bucket.
Biggest weakness: The Bearcats' inability to stay healthy. Cincinnati essentially has the lineup from last season's NCAA tourney team with one notable addition, 6-foot-6 freshman star-in-the-making Evans. But key cogs in UC's rotation have gotten banged up this season, including Cobb (knee) and Thomas (groin, foot and ankle). All are back now, but are they 100 percent healthy?
Best players: UC is led by its two Killer C's: Caupain and Clark. Both were lightly recruited, but have done the tireless, behind-the-scenes work in the weight room and on the practice court needed to achieve American Athletic stardom.
X factor: The Bearcats play in-your-shirt defense without fouling. They were fifth in the nation in fewest fouls per game (15.5).
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Cincinnati has a healthy "who cares who scores" mentality as eight players average at least 5.7 points per contest with Caupain, Clark and Cobb averaging in double-figures.
Defensive approach: The Bearcats mix defenses -- some matchup zone, some sagging and switching man-to-man D, some straight man-to-man. The ever-changing looks keep foes off-kilter as Cincinnati ranks in the top 15 nationally in scoring defense, fewest fouls committed and blocks.
How they beat you: The Bearcats best their opponents with defense. Cincinnati's foes shot just .388 from the field against them during the weekend. The stifling D keeps them in the game, and then Coach Cronin leans on his experienced hands (Caupain, Cobb, Clark or Ellis) to finish the job.
How you beat them: Playing Cincinnati is the hoops equivalent of a root canal. The pace will be slow, UC's defense will be relentless, and the first team to 55 points will likely win. Opponents who are mentally prepared to play at a slower-than-usual pace and can match UC's defensive intensity can beat them.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 104th (107.0)
Defensive efficiency, 6th (92.1)
3-point percentage, 181st (34.4)
3-point percentage D, 265th (35.5)
Free throw rate, 347th (33.2)
Free throw rate D, 14th (26.8)
TO percentage, 66th (16.5)
TO percentage D, 40th (20.9)
Good stat: 92.1 defensive efficiency rating
Cincinnati's relentless D never rests as the Bearcats are sixth nationally in defensive efficiency and they are able to shut down teams without fouling all that much (14th in nation in free throw rate defense).
Bad stat: 34.4 three-point percentage
If the Bearcats need a "One Shining Moment" 3-ball in a late-game situation, they could be out of luck as they are 181st nationally in 3-point shooting percentage.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
Sure, the Bearcats play a suffocating brand of defense. But it's hard to imagine this sometimes scoring-challenged squad winning three times in the Big Dance.
Worst-case scenario: One-and-done
The Bearcats plays at a pedestrian pace that often keeps both teams in the ballgame even with UC's sticky D. That increases the odds of Cincy falling victim to a last-second hero shot.