Teams with first-year head coaches who lose their best player to a season-ending injury early on aren't supposed to win their conference or start thinking about a Cinderella run in the NCAA tournament, right? Don't tell the Chattanooga Mocs. They are heading to the Big Dance after winning the Southern Conference regular-season and tournament championships. They've been answering doubters all season. Why stop now?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: at Georgia, at Dayton, Illinois
Worst losses: UNC Greensboro, Western Carolina, Furman, Louisiana Monroe
Regular season conference finish: 1st, Southern Conference
Polls and metrics: Despite playing the 226th ranked strength of schedule, they have risen to No. 51 in RPI.
All-time tourney record: 3-10 (10 appearances)
Coach's tourney record: Matt McCall (first season)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
F Justin Tuoyo (11.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.3 BPG)
F Chuck Ester (7.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1. 0 SPG)
G Tre' McLean (12.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG)
G Eric Robertson (8.7 PPG, 1.7 APG, 1.3 SPG)
G Greg Pryor (9.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.5 SPG)
Key Bench Players
G Dee Oldham (7.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG)
F Duke Ethridge (7.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG)
G Johnathan Burroughs-Cook (5.9 PPG, 1.8 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Mocs like to create disorder on defense. They won't press for extended periods or force a lightning-quick tempo, but Chattanooga is stacked with athletes who are always looking to get a hand on the ball. Chattanooga is one of only two teams in the top two nationally in both blocks and steals. Tuoyo leads this effort, averaging more than two blocks per contest.
Biggest weakness: The Mocs lack a consistent scoring option on a nightly basis. After losing preseason SoCon Player of the Year Jones to a season-ending injury after just six games, Chattanooga struggled to fully replace him within their offense. Only two Mocs average double figures, McLean and Tuoyo, with no one posting a usage rate higher than 23.4 percent.
Best player: McLean has led the Mocs in scoring, in Jones' stead, and the sophomore has improved all season. He has scored in double figures in 15 of Chattanooga's past 17 games. After shooting a paltry 19 percent from beyond the arc last season, he has improved that number to 36 percent this season and an even better 41 percent since mid-January.
X factor: Tuoyo is a walking, talking X-factor. He led the Southern Conference in blocks per game and block percentage, altering every shot with his freakish wingspan. On the offensive end, opponents have had trouble with Tuoyo in the paint. This season, he was fourth in the SoCon in fouls drawn per 40 minutes and fifth in free throw rate. On both ends of the floor, he is active and efficient around the bucket.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Mocs led the Southern Conference in free throw rate this season, collecting 22.9 percent of their points from the charity stripe. Free throws have been their most consistent scoring option, but McCall's team also protects the ball and shares the scoring burden. Drawing up a defensive game plan to stop the Mocs is easier said than done.
Defensive approach: Chattanooga plays a hectic, intense man-to-man and has been effective on the defensive end. This season, the Mocs topped the Southern Conference in points allowed, defensive efficiency, turnover percentage and steal percentage. Amazingly, they did all of this while also finishing with the lowest foul rate in the conference. In tournament play, they will need to continue to be aggressive and get stops without fouling.
How they beat you: Chattanooga's calling card has been its defense. The Mocs excel when they are creating turnovers, deflecting passes and blocking shots, which lead to transition opportunities at the other end. Their defensive possessions have lasted, on average, nearly a full second longer than their offensive possessions. It may not sound like much, but that's the difference between the 26th slowest on defense and 176th slowest on offense.
How you beat them: Chattanooga averages more than 75 points per game, but has managed fewer than 65 in each of its five losses. Even when the Mocs hold their opponents to a low scoring night, they lack the reliable creator on offense to power their offense through a scoring drought, which has cost them in games they had no business losing.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 149th (105.1)
Defensive efficiency, 83rd (99.2)
3-point percentage, 109th (36.1)
3-point percentage D, 86th (33.0)
Free throw rate, 52nd (42.0)
Free throw rate D, 58th (30.8)
TO percentage, 167th (17.9)
TO percentage D, 56th (20.3)
Good stat: 13.4 percent steal rate, 10.8 percent block rate
When playing against opponents from power conferences, Tuoyo and his teammates may not be able to block as many shots, facing a higher level of athletes, but the overall effect of the Chattanooga defense is too much to write off. Even when they've played against higher-level competition, the Mocs have been able to affect the game on the defensive end, like when they tallied eight blocks and 10 steals against Illinois.
Bad stat: Three losses outside the RPI top 150
Chattanooga played a very respectable schedule out of conference, collecting wins against Dayton and Georgia. At their best, the Mocs have been able to play with the best teams on their schedule. Their bigger problem has been when they are at their worst. If they struggle like they did in letdown losses to Western Carolina, Furman, and UNC Greensboro, an early exit could be in their future.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Opening round victory.
For most mid-major programs, reaching the NCAA tournament is enough. In McCall's first season as a head coach, anything more than a conference title would be high expectations. But this is a team that has found success with their distinct style and elite athletic ability. The Mocs are going dancing and could dance for more than just one game.
Worst-case scenario: Opening round loss.
In Chattanooga's only crack at a team that will be very highly seeded, they lost to Iowa State by 20 back in November (with Casey Jones in the lineup). The Mocs hae grown and changed a lot since then, but have still shown the ability to lay an egg offensively, which could doom them in tourney play.