Cuonzo Martin pulled off a recruiting coup by landing Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb and they haven't disappointed. Neither have the California Golden Bears. They improved by five games in Pac-12 play and are back in the NCAA tournament for the first time in three years. Ultimately, this could be the only tournament for the two top-10 freshmen. After a successful regular season, will they make it count when it really counts?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Oregon
Worst losses: vs. Richmond, at Stanford
Regular-season conference finish: T-Third, Pac-12
Polls and metrics: KenPom and the BPI were kinder to Cal than the AP poll for much of the season with the Bears just outside the top 20 in each. Cal fell out of the AP poll in November, not to return until the season's final weeks.
All-time tourney record: 20-18, one national title, three Final Fours
Coach's tourney record: Cuonzo Martin (3-1)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
STARTING LINEUP
C Kingsley Okoroh (1.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG)
F Ivan Rabb (12.2 PPG, 8.4 RPG)
F Jaylen Brown (12.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG)
G Jabari Bird (10.0 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
G Tyrone Wallace (15.2 PPG, 4.3 APG)
Key Bench Players
G Sam Singer (3.7 PPG, 2.8 APG)
G Jordan Mathews (13.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG)
C Kameron Rooks (3.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG)
Biggest strength: It took a little bit of time to jell, but Cal has become an elite defensive team. Martin's lineup is full of athletes with length who contest shots all over the floor. No Power 5 team allowed fewer made 3-pointers than the Bears, and Cal ranked second in the nation in 2-point field goal percentage defense, permitting just 40 percent on shots inside the arc.
Biggest weakness: Cal can be explosive at one moment, and static the next. Offensively, the Bears lack consistency. With Wallace missing five games at midseason, some players are still figuring out or adjusting their roles. Wallace was once the star, but with Brown and Rabb he has had to be more facilitator, and his comfort level isn't there yet.
Best player: Brown. The top recruit has lived up to his reputation. A combination of quickness and strength, Brown is an aggressive offensive athlete who is tough to keep out of the lane. His jump shot has improved as he has matured and he will be playing in the NBA sooner rather than later. Along with Rabb, they are the top scoring freshman duo in the country.
X factor: Their NCAA tournament inexperience. Brown and Rabb are mature players and handled the pressure-cooker of the Pac-12 season well, but the tournament is a different animal. For Cal to make a deep run both will have to avoid getting caught up in the moment or squeezing the ball too tightly. Even juniors Bird and Mathews are new to this.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Running is the first priority. Brown, Bird, Mathews and Rabb are all finishers, making the Bears tough to slow in transition. Cal isn't as smooth in the half court. Getting Wallace back from a wrist injury in mid-February helped get a fourth weapon back on the floor, or five if Martin goes with Rabb at center. Still, spacing and impatience can be issues at times.
Defensive approach: Martin is a defensive coach first and once this group had some time to play together, his vision came together. After a 4-5 Pac-12 start, the Bears' active man-to-man became the difference in the turnaround. Seven of Cal's next nine opponents were held under 66 points. Because of their athleticism, the Bears can switch on every screen, sag into the lane and are willing to give up a mid-range jumper rather than a drive to the rim.
How they beat you: The talent is there to score big, but it meshed more quickly on the defensive end. When the Bears find mismatches, like Rabb in the low post against some defenders, and are patient enough to take advantage, they have a winning offensive formula, too.
How you beat them: Bird has found a rhythm late in the season and was a key to the eight-game winning streak, but Mathews had been the only true deep threat until then. Cal has a few different places it can turn, but it's best to play off their wings and make the Bears beat you from the outside. The ball tends to stop moving when Cal is forced to grind out possessions. The Bears' assist rate is 254th in the country. Cal is also just a 65.7 percent free throw shooting team. Putting them at the line in late-game situations might be a winning strategy.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 49th (111.1)
Defensive efficiency, 12th (93.3)
3-point percentage, 67th (36.9)
3-point percentage D, 158th (35.5)
Free throw rate, 58th (41.7)
Free throw rate D, 164th (36.5)
TO percentage, 163 (17.9)
TO percentage D, 348th (13.8)
Good stat: 93.3 defensive efficiency
The young Bears bought into Martin's plan and it has translated into the program's best season since 2012. One of the keys to that is Cal's ability to limit 3-point attempts, while not giving up too much mid-range space or action at the rim. Only three teams allowed fewer shots from beyond the arc.
Bad stat: 13.8 turnover percentage D
Ironically, a team that wants to run and is good at defending the opponent is not good at turning the opponent over. In fact, Cal is one of the worst in the country.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
The offensive production probably hasn't lived up to the talent thus far, but the Bears wouldn't be the first team to find an extra gear in the tournament. Brown or Rabb could be breakout national stars for a week with a few acrobatic plays and a couple of Cal wins.
Worst-case scenario: Opening-round loss
Any team with issues scoring becomes an upset possibility. Not to mention these Bears are relatively young and have not been in this environment before. Even Martin has coached in only one NCAA tournament, although he did get Tennessee to the Sweet 16 in 2014.