Coming off their second straight 20-plus-win season, the Butler Bulldogs are back in the Big Dance for the third time in the past four years. Former interim (and now permanent) coach Chris Holtmann saw his squad win seven of its last nine games to close out the regular season. Can the Bulldogs take that momentum and translate it into a tournament run?
ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to compile advanced metrics, key scouting intel and best- and worst-case tournament scenarios for all 68 teams to help you make smart picks in your bracket.
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Temple, Purdue, @Cincinnati, Seton Hall (twice),
Worst losses: None
Regular season conference finish: T-4th, Big East
Polls and metrics: Butler spent multiple weeks in both Top 25 polls and sits inside the top 40 of the BPI.
All-time tourney record: 20-13, 2 Final Fours
Coach's tourney record: Chris Holtmann (0-0)
Bracketology chart | BPI information
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are through games of March 6.)
Starting Lineup
F Tyler Wideman (7.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG)
F Andrew Chrabascz (7.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG)
F Roosevelt Jones (12.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
F Kelan Martin (16.2 PPG, 2.6 RPG)
G Kellen Dunham (16.2 PPG, 2.6 RPG)
Key Bench Players
G Tyler Lewis (6.0 PPG, 2.5 RPG)
G Jordan Gathers (4.3 PPG, 1.3 RPG)
F Austin Etherington (3.7 PPG, 1.8 RPG)
Biggest strength: The Bulldogs have one of the most experienced teams in the tournament field. No one in their top eight is younger than a sophomore and most of their rotation has played in an NCAA tournament game before. The value of that type of veteran presence the moment things start to get tight is immeasurable.
Biggest weakness: While Butler lacks neither balance nor experience, its bench doesn't produce much. The Bulldogs are among the bottom 50 programs in all of D-I in bench minutes, meaning if the get into foul trouble, they could be in a dicey situation.
Best player: Dunham. It's only your imagination that it seems like he's been with the Bulldogs for 10 years. The first-team All-Big East selection knows only one speed: fast. Dunham is a sniper from the outside, can score in transition and has been a staple in the Butler rotation since his freshman year. When he's on, chances are the Bulldogs are, too.
X factor: Jones. Few are more versatile than the senior forward. Jones is 6-foot-4 but rebounds like he's 6-8. Butler's third-leading scorer also passes with the precision of a point guard, and some of his toughest games have been some of the Bulldogs' most frustrating losses. He needs to be involved for Butler to advance.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Bulldogs push the pedal to the floor when they have the basketball. They love games played in the high 70s and low 80s and are a top-30 3-point shooting team. Four double-figure scorers headline Butler's lineup, and perhaps the Bulldogs' best attribute is how well they take care of the basketball. When they're going right, they are one of college basketball's most efficient offenses.
Defensive approach: Butler plays mostly man and is able to use its scoring to mask the fact that it's only a slightly above-average team on defense. The Bulldogs' saving grace may be that they keep their opponents off the offensive glass.
How they beat you: Butler will run early and often and test an opponent's conditioning and ability to defend in transition. Its best attribute may be that it doesn't lean on one thing too much, making for a difficult scouting assignment for an opposing coaching staff. Their offensive balance and ability to knock down key shots from the outside make the Bulldogs really dangerous this time of year.
How you beat them: Dictate the tempo. Teams would be wise not to try to run with the Bulldogs if that isn't already their style of play. Slowing the ball down and working the shot clock keeps Butler from getting into a rhythm at the offensive end. Opponents who find a way to take away the perimeter seem to have been the most successful.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 6.)
NATIONAL RANKS
Offensive efficiency, 16th (116.1)
Defensive efficiency, 113th (100.8)
3-point percentage, 30th (38.3)
3-point percentage D, 120th (33.6)
Free throw rate, 78th (40.5)
Free throw rate D, 175th (36.9)
TO percentage, 5th (14.4)
TO percentage D, 135th (18.8)
Good stat: 14.4 TO percentage
Taking care of the basketball in March goes without saying, but the teams who do it exceptionally well are few and far between. The Bulldogs happen to be one of them, giving it up on less than 15 percent of possessions. Only four teams in all of D-I give it away less, and Butler's ability to take care of the basketball will prove incredibly valuable in the tournament.
Bad stat: 18.8 turnover percentage D
This isn't anything that should worry you. It simply means the Bulldogs only force a turnover a little less than 19 percent of the time. That raises eyebrows as to whether they can get the ball back in a big spot if they need it.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Sweet 16
The Bulldogs have all the tools to make things very difficult for their potential opponents in the first two rounds. Butler has the balance, discipline and experience necessary to make a serious run at getting out of the opening weekend. Roosevelt Jones and this senior class have never won more than a game in the Big Dance, but based on the end of their regular season, this might be the year it changes.
Worst-case scenario: first-round exit
Many of Butler's losses this season occurred when the Bulldogs couldn't dictate the tempo. The ability to adapt when that happens is a characteristic that the Bulldogs still haven't mastered. Chances are there's a team as early as their opening matchup that can slow them down and make things difficult from the perimeter. If that happens, Holtmann's squad is headed home early.